Aqueduct Live!: Sunday, January 21 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Teach · 01-21-2018, 12:15 PM

Race One:

Merger of Banks looks like - off his last effort - "The Horse". It was a 2nd-place finish in this 50k company. This Bank Heist-bred colt did stumble coming out of the gate. Yet, I'm not sure whether that cost him the race. Was it the distance? He stretches out a half-panel here. Does that make it a tad more difficult to garner the victory? If you're lookin' to "buy insurance," I'll toss out a few more numbers:

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jay68802 · 01-21-2018, 12:19 PM

Join you here:

Exacta:

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jay68802 · 01-21-2018, 12:23 PM

The wrong horse faded at the end....

Teach · 01-21-2018, 12:42 PM

Race Two:

R Lucky Charm gets my tepid nod in this 14k n3L claiming sprint. "The Bug," Nicky Figueroa, has the call for trainer Jason Servis (one of the best conditioners in the business). I like the turf-to-dirt angle. I believe this mare's best surface is the main. This Lion Heart-bred 5-year old bay faced much tougher competition over last summer. Yes, she's been off for four months, yet Servis does very well with horses that have been on the bench. If she's reasonably ready and can work out the right trip, she can prevail. Others:

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jay68802 · 01-21-2018, 12:48 PM

Aqueduct Race #2:

Class drops, trainer change's galore. Not a race that inspires confidence. Two trainers have 2 entries here, both with a speed type and a closer. None of the closer's have ran well against the expected pace, i will take the low price and play the

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Teach · 01-21-2018, 01:08 PM

Race Three:

I'm trying for a mild upset. My pick here in the 100k non-graded Alex M. Robb at 9 panels is:

Can You Diggit (Yes I Can) "Saturday in the Park" (Chicago). This Tiznow-bred 4-year old colt faced open competition a couple months ago in the Grade III Discovery at "The Big A". He now drops back in with New York state-breds. This Mineralogist-bred has always competed very well in this company. Manny Franco reprises the ride for trainer Jimmy Jerkens. Jerkens does very well with horses that have been on the shelf. Others:

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jay68802 · 01-21-2018, 01:09 PM

Race #3:

The obvious one is a standout as far as I am concerned. Try to turn low odds into something. Exacta play,

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jay68802 · 01-21-2018, 01:28 PM

Race #4:

The money will be attracted to the Pletcher and Brown barns. Brown looks lost with the

, running her at 4 different distances and showing 3 different running styles. Pletcher's entry has shown works on the slow to very slow side and is not what a Pletcher 1st timer usually shows. I'm going to use a horse that resembles what the first of today's two race winners have shown. The outside speed has won both of those races, so the pick is the

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Teach · 01-21-2018, 01:39 PM

Overtime Olivia is my choice in the MSW state-bred sprint. This late-blooming Roman Ruler-bred filly finished 2nd, less than one length, in her only pari-mutuel try. Eric Cancel will need to ration out this filly's speed if she is to break her maiden. I don't see a ton of speed here with the exception of Impazible Creek. If this filly can make her way to the front and the aforementioned Cancel can parcel out her speed and endurance, she can prevail. Richard Metivier is the conditioner. One note of caution: this filly's been away from the races for about one month and one-half. Others:

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jay68802 · 01-21-2018, 02:00 PM

Aqueduct Race #5:

The

,

, and

have the experience edge but have not won in multiple tries at this level. Of this group the

would be my pick in this group. But in this situation I am going to go with one of the strangers here, the Brown firster,

, Blue Watch with the

and

below.

Teach · 01-21-2018, 02:12 PM

Race Five:

TOTAL CONTROL should be coming on in mid-stretch. I see this as one of those stalk-and pounce situations. Paco Lopez should be "sittin' chilly" as he maneuvers this Bellamy Road-bred filly down the backstretch. As the field moves around the far turn, Lopez should be positioning this this Concerto-bred for her late run. If all goes well, this filly gets her picture taken. The "Aussie," Brian Lynch, is this distaffer's conditioner. Lynch does very well with horses going route-to-sprint. He also does well with horses that have been on vacation (in this case: 45 days). Others:

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jay68802 · 01-21-2018, 02:22 PM

Race #6:

Tough race, I think that you could make a case for about every horse here. When that happens I look for a price and think I found one. The

A Fleet Attitude. Has wins at higher class levels and some back speed figures that can win this. Has won off a break before and should be a good price.

atonymania · 01-21-2018, 02:33 PM

Ex box 5,6,9

Teach · 01-21-2018, 02:49 PM

Race Six:

HeLooksThePart is my choice in the 7-panels sprint-route; he's in for a claiming tag of 32k. This aged gelding has been the model of consistency - 2 firsts and one second in his last three. I think this gelding can come, as they say, "from out of the clouds". "Double-A," Angel Arroyo, is in the irons for trainer Robertino "Beto" Diodoro. Diodoro does very well in all racing categories. Others:

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Teach · 01-21-2018, 02:55 PM

Final Pick 3:

Race Seven:

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Race Eight:

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Race Nine: - - -