Arrogate's Next Race

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Best way to enter the breeding shed is to win the triple crown and follow that up with a BCC win. AP may have been priced high but they knew the buzz would die down and they'd have to lower the price the next year.

As his 2-yr-old babies hit the track next year, the buyers will have a better idea of what exactly they are getting. It's all about performance from here on out.

You brought up good points about Arrogate's UBS pedigree, I had forgotten about that. If he retires with three straight losses, and no triple crown wins on his resume, with that pedigree, I don't see him getting six figures, to start anyway.

The San Diego loss looks like hell. No wonder Baffert is kicking himself for racing him there.

AP definitely went to the shed hot, but even Coolmore miscalculated what a TC winner translated to in a stud fee. That 2 for 1 deal was offered during the first season. $200k is just too much for any horse starting out. They tried that amount with Ghostzapper too and immediately had to make deals. I really think about $125k is tops these days and had they started AP at that, then they'd have had no problems filling the book at that price.

I'm pretty sure that we're just now seeing AP's weanlings this year, so next year will be interesting to see how they look and sell as yearlings.

My guess for Arrogate's fee was $100k when he looked like "all that and then some" but my guess today would be $60k-$75k. What do you think he may start at if he retired tomorrow?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

BC Classic.

After last year's Travers/Classic finish, this year was all about Pegasus, Dubai, and Classic again.

He has zero Triple Crown wins, but would do something that would be incredibly tough to equal, much less surpass.

Would make him a $20 Million on the track earnings horse.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

AP definitely went to the shed hot, but even Coolmore miscalculated what a TC winner translated to in a stud fee. That 2 for 1 deal was offered during the first season. $200k is just too much for any horse starting out. They tried that amount with Ghostzapper too and immediately had to make deals. I really think about $125k is tops these days and had they started AP at that, then they'd have had no problems filling the book at that price.

I'm pretty sure that we're just now seeing AP's weanlings this year, so next year will be interesting to see how they look and sell as yearlings.

My guess for Arrogate's fee was $100k when he looked like "all that and then some" but my guess today would be $60k-$75k. What do you think he may start at if he retired tomorrow?

Who do you like in the Travers? We've all seen your brilliance AFTER a race but I can't ever remember a pre race opinion.

Wonder why that is.

Wouldn't want to lose your internet cred?

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Who do you like in the Travers? We've all seen your brilliance AFTER a race but I can't ever remember a pre race opinion.

Wonder why that is.

Wouldn't want to lose your internet cred?

I like Good Samaritan personally, and I am taking a stand against the West Coast horse (who is named, conveniently enough, West Coast). I don't think the Baffert colt is nearly as good as the horses who have been running the 3 year old races back east.

I'm making a point of posting this because you think I never praise anything on the east coast here.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I like Good Samaritan personally, and I am taking a stand against the West Coast horse (who is named, conveniently enough, West Coast). I don't think the Baffert colt is nearly as good as the horses who have been running the 3 year old races back east.

I'm making a point of posting this because you think I never praise anything on the east coast here.

Somebody keeps bumping this thread up. Obviously I was dead wrong about this.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Somebody keeps bumping this thread up. Obviously I was dead wrong about this.

It gets bumped any time somebody votes in the poll even if they don't respond otherwise.

[Bigadam119]

Just a thought, but could a rider change be in order for Arrogate? Obviously Mike is an phenomenal rider, but something isn’t working. Have Victor and Baffert made up? He seems like he would be a good fit as he definitely gets horses to use their speed well.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Bigadam119

Just a thought, but could a rider change be in order for Arrogate? Obviously Mike is an phenomenal rider, but something isn’t working. Have Victor and Baffert made up? He seems like he would be a good fit as he definitely gets horses to use their speed well.

You are given rider's way to much credit to their overall performance.

[Road Kill]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

AP definitely went to the shed hot, but even Coolmore miscalculated what a TC winner translated to in a stud fee. That 2 for 1 deal was offered during the first season. $200k is just too much for any horse starting out. They tried that amount with Ghostzapper too and immediately had to make deals. I really think about $125k is tops these days and had they started AP at that, then they'd have had no problems filling the book at that price.

I'm pretty sure that we're just now seeing AP's weanlings this year, so next year will be interesting to see how they look and sell as yearlings.

My guess for Arrogate's fee was $100k when he looked like "all that and then some" but my guess today would be $60k-$75k. What do you think he may start at if he retired tomorrow?

Would still take mares to Will Take Charge over Arrogate at that fee.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Bigadam119

Just a thought, but could a rider change be in order for Arrogate? Obviously Mike is an phenomenal rider, but something isn’t working. Have Victor and Baffert made up? He seems like he would be a good fit as he definitely gets horses to use their speed well.

I think he's going to stick with Mike, although Baffert has not been shy about changing jockeys in the past.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

AP definitely went to the shed hot, but even Coolmore miscalculated what a TC winner translated to in a stud fee. That 2 for 1 deal was offered during the first season. $200k is just too much for any horse starting out. They tried that amount with Ghostzapper too and immediately had to make deals. I really think about $125k is tops these days and had they started AP at that, then they'd have had no problems filling the book at that price.

I'm pretty sure that we're just now seeing AP's weanlings this year, so next year will be interesting to see how they look and sell as yearlings.

My guess for Arrogate's fee was $100k when he looked like "all that and then some" but my guess today would be $60k-$75k. What do you think he may start at if he retired tomorrow?

It's always a "feather in one's cap" to enter the breeding shed healthy. If they retired him now, after 10 races, he’d have Unbridled fragility written all over him and the top broodmares would avoid him like the plague. They’d be better off resting him and bringing him back next year. If he had another off race (2nd or 3rd) in the BCC, at least he would go into the shed healthy.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Redboard

I think he's going to stick with Mike, although Baffert has not been shy about changing jockeys in the past.

I put the chances Bob would switch riders at roughly 0%.