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05-03-2018, 09:38 AM
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#1
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,872
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Kentucky Derby Odds Lines
Our Talking Handicapping Group has been voting on odds for the Derby. Using some snazzy math, I've produced this line.
The data has been updated as of 6:30am (pacific) Thursday.
I will continue to update in this thread.
Good luck.
Feel free to contribute your line.
Dave Schwartz
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05-03-2018, 10:07 AM
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#2
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,446
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I hope I can get that on Lone Sailor!
I thing you have Firenzie Fire a little too low!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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05-03-2018, 10:32 AM
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#3
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,872
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
I hope I can get that on Lone Sailor!
I thing you have Firenzie Fire a little too low!
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Remember, these are not my opinions but rather about 35 people.
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05-03-2018, 10:59 AM
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#4
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,163
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05-03-2018, 11:18 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: GA
Posts: 2,860
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
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Hi PA,
Do you still have your old program? As I recall it did pretty good on the big days. If you have it and can show a printout of the big race, that would be nice. Best of luck to everyone betting the Ky Derby.
Jim
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05-03-2018, 11:26 AM
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#6
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,872
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There is some canceling going on. Just like at the track. LOL
The money is moving towards the top.
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05-03-2018, 12:31 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 5
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Mine That Bird would have been 100,000-1 with this group.
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05-03-2018, 01:00 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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For what it is worth, how I rank the derby.
.....1929
...1926
...1901
...1897
...1885
.....1885
.....1883
.....1876
...1874
...1867
...1860
.....1859
...1857
.....1851
...1841
10... 1834
.....1834
.....1826
.....1789
13... 1747
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05-03-2018, 01:32 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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justify 7-1
Bolt d-oro 7-1
audible 12-1
good magic 16-1
magnam moon 16-1
enticed 18-1
hofburg 19-1
vino rossi 19-1
Allan
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05-03-2018, 02:03 PM
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#10
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 729
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Magnum Moon: 5/2
Justify: 3-1
Mendelssohn: 5-1
Audible: 10-1
Field: 4-1
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05-03-2018, 03:22 PM
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#11
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
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I have:
Justify - EVEN
.
Good Magic - 10
Bolt d'Oro - 12
Audible - 15
Vino Rosso - 20
Mendelsohn - 25
Magnum Moon - 25
Hofburg -35
Instilled Regard - 35
Solomini - 40
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Rest divide what little is left
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05-03-2018, 04:40 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 17,095
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Any considerations or hedges about weather? Forecast is for rain Friday and Saturday.
https://www.bing.com/search?q=louisv...ZI&form=MOZTSB
__________________
A man's got to know his limitations. -- Dirty Harry
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05-03-2018, 04:58 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Our Talking Handicapping Group has been voting on odds for the Derby. Using some snazzy math, I've produced this line.
The data has been updated as of 6:30am (pacific) Thursday.
I will continue to update in this thread.
Good luck.
Feel free to contribute your line.
Dave Schwartz
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Mendolsshon was getting a lot of votes to win @Paulick Report-may go off favored
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05-03-2018, 05:26 PM
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#14
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,872
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Afleet
Mendolsshon was getting a lot of votes to win @Paulick Report-may go off favored
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That will be interesting to see if it is reflected in the next poll update I do.
Thanks.
Edit: As of right now, (just eyeballing) he actually has dropped in the rankings!
Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 05-03-2018 at 05:27 PM.
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05-03-2018, 07:02 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 369
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This line is based on two criteria Prime Power and Jockey Rating
6 Good Magic 8/1
5 Audible 9/1
7 Justify 9/1
14 Mendelssohn 10/1
16 Magnum Moon 13/1
12 Enticed 15/1
11 Bolt d'Oro 16/1
17 Solomini 16/1
18 Vino Rosso 18/1
19 Noble Indy 19/1
15 Instilled Regard 22/1
10 My Boy Jack 23/1
9 Hofburg 25/1
4 Flameaway 30/1
1 Firenze Fire 30/1
20 Combatant 35/1
2 Free Drop Billy 46/1
13 Bravazo 62/1
3 Promises Fulfilled 63/1
8 Lone Sailor 78/1
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