|
|
10-24-2017, 05:24 PM
|
#16
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: west view, pa. now Lancaster, Ca.
Posts: 3,382
|
4 Open Bar Silvera R $7.20 $3.60 $2.60
6 My Uncle Al Esquivel E - $3.60 $2.40
2 Mr. McFrosty Diaz, Jr. H R - - $2.40
3 Bubba Chub Leon S - -
__________________
Buy Sam a drink and get His dog one Too--->mlang
and now in Lancaster, CA.
|
|
|
10-24-2017, 05:31 PM
|
#17
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
According to my pace figures...even the second-race-back of the has an unimpressive late-pace rating, especially when compared to the late-pace figure of the
|
I don't have your figs. What exactly is your point? That my figs are wrong, probably.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
|
|
|
10-24-2017, 05:38 PM
|
#18
|
math/science # cruncher
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 180
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ldiatone
|
Great ICE COLD EXACTA
|
|
|
10-24-2017, 05:43 PM
|
#19
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: west view, pa. now Lancaster, Ca.
Posts: 3,382
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by AstrosFan
Great ICE COLD EXACTA
|
thanks!
__________________
Buy Sam a drink and get His dog one Too--->mlang
and now in Lancaster, CA.
|
|
|
10-24-2017, 05:56 PM
|
#20
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
I don't have your figs. What exactly is your point? That my figs are wrong, probably.
|
I'm not looking to get into an argument...all I am doing is trying to correct a mistake. You said in your initial post that the late-pace ratings of the and the were tied, according to the figures that you use...and this is obviously a bris-figure mistake. In no way should the late-pace figures of the and the be tied...because the two horses have opposing running-styles. The has much better closing figures than the ...because he contributes nothing to the early pace of the race.
__________________
Live to play another day.
|
|
|
10-24-2017, 07:17 PM
|
#21
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I'm not looking to get into an argument...all I am doing is trying to correct a mistake. You said in your initial post that the late-pace ratings of the and the were tied, according to the figures that you use...and this is obviously a bris-figure mistake. In no way should the late-pace figures of the and the be tied...because the two horses have opposing running-styles. The has much better closing figures than the ...because he contributes nothing to the early pace of the race.
|
Nor do I. Again, I make my own late speed numbers, and only look at Bris, to see if they're relatively high, low, or way out of line. My late speed numbers had the 6 and 9 tied for the lowest of the bunch for their first number and the 9 was one number faster than 6 for the other. But in my orig. comments I'd mentioned that 9 did that with a very slow 116.0 2nd call time, while the 6 had put up two markedly better pace numbers(6f).
As it turned out, the 6 by my calculations put up the best late speed number again in this race and almost ruined the win for #4, whom I picked. I had the 6's late speed as 3 ticks off my original prediction, and dead in the middle of the two late speed numbers I'd had(not Bris' no's.) Where I'd like to be is how to adjust my late speed numbers in routes for slow or fast pace times, which I'm able to do on sprints. I know you are already there. Peace brother.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
|
|
|
10-25-2017, 07:35 PM
|
#22
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,111
|
Let's do it again. All the different opinions, people using different methods is exactly what handicapping is about. As always people can disagree, see the same info in different light. The class drop with the is a example. Bris said suspicious, it ended up the trainer had the horse ready to be competitive at this level. When I go to the track I sit with the same two guys and we argue about races and then, do it again. Still sort of like them after 15+ years of doing this. The Bris figures showed declining late pace numbers for the , Whosonfirst said they were better than that. Good call on that.
|
|
|
10-25-2017, 08:20 PM
|
#23
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Let's do it again. All the different opinions, people using different methods is exactly what handicapping is about. As always people can disagree, see the same info in different light. The class drop with the is a example. Bris said suspicious, it ended up the trainer had the horse ready to be competitive at this level. When I go to the track I sit with the same two guys and we argue about races and then, do it again. Still sort of like them after 15+ years of doing this. The Bris figures showed declining late pace numbers for the , Whosonfirst said they were better than that. Good call on that.
|
How does the 6th At Belmont tomorrow sound? 7f on turf, full field for 35000 Claiming. Any other suggestions appreciated. Maybe then it would be fun to do a cheap track.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
|
|
|
10-25-2017, 10:48 PM
|
#24
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,111
|
Sounds good.
|
|
|
10-26-2017, 12:19 AM
|
#25
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,111
|
Belmont Race #6: 10/26/17
Cordero 6-1 Will be forwardly placed because of post position and running style. Recent claim by Cox and the cut back in distance give hope. Pretender.
Djulpan 12-1 Maker and Ortiz should take some money. Last time Ortiz was on was close to the pace. Needs more class relief. Toss.
Sallisaw(MTO)7-2
War Stroll 7-2 Have to respect on the class drop and his last race might win this. Notice a long break in the works and is a concern. His good speed figures have been earned against better, but am a little wary. Contender.
Outragous Bet 20-1 3 yr old set career high speed figure 2 back. Saw State bred Allowance in his last and showed the effects of the race before. Now gets a little class relief, has 3 sharp works, and as a 3 yr old late in the fall is set to run another career best. My pick.
Camp Courage 5-1 Has seen the best races and figures in this race. But the obvious physical issues are a concern. Contender.
Lone Trader 12-1 His speed figures say he is a contender, and a Ortiz in the saddle adds to that illusion. Besides the has had the most chances to get his 3rd win. Toss.
Snake Oil Charlie 50-1 Never Mind.
Tiz A Chance 10-1 Since the claim has run figures that can win this race. But the lack of works and the jockey make me a non-believer. Toss.
Performance Bonus 3-1 Brown on the turf, with Castellano. The "please claim me horse" will take money and might surprise and win this, but I doubt it. Pretender.
Any Questions 12-1 The drop in class figures for this horse and might be what he needs. Not to thrilled with the trainer and jockey, but they have won together. On the fence here, but under perfect conditions could surprise. Let the odds make the decision, if under 12-1, consider.
Abbot 8-1 Was the favorite in last and at 8-1 here with the Rosario in the saddle is a solid choice. Contender.
If race is not on turf, will change.
|
|
|
10-26-2017, 07:53 AM
|
#26
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Belmont Race #6: 10/26/17
Cordero 6-1 Will be forwardly placed because of post position and running style. Recent claim by Cox and the cut back in distance give hope. Pretender.
Djulpan 12-1 Maker and Ortiz should take some money. Last time Ortiz was on was close to the pace. Needs more class relief. Toss.
Sallisaw(MTO)7-2
War Stroll 7-2 Have to respect on the class drop and his last race might win this. Notice a long break in the works and is a concern. His good speed figures have been earned against better, but am a little wary. Contender.
Outragous Bet 20-1 3 yr old set career high speed figure 2 back. Saw State bred Allowance in his last and showed the effects of the race before. Now gets a little class relief, has 3 sharp works, and as a 3 yr old late in the fall is set to run another career best. My pick.
Camp Courage 5-1 Has seen the best races and figures in this race. But the obvious physical issues are a concern. Contender.
Lone Trader 12-1 His speed figures say he is a contender, and a Ortiz in the saddle adds to that illusion. Besides the has had the most chances to get his 3rd win. Toss.
Snake Oil Charlie 50-1 Never Mind.
Tiz A Chance 10-1 Since the claim has run figures that can win this race. But the lack of works and the jockey make me a non-believer. Toss.
Performance Bonus 3-1 Brown on the turf, with Castellano. The "please claim me horse" will take money and might surprise and win this, but I doubt it. Pretender.
Any Questions 12-1 The drop in class figures for this horse and might be what he needs. Not to thrilled with the trainer and jockey, but they have won together. On the fence here, but under perfect conditions could surprise. Let the odds make the decision, if under 12-1, consider.
Abbot 8-1 Was the favorite in last and at 8-1 here with the Rosario in the saddle is a solid choice. Contender.
If race is not on turf, will change.
|
Jay, Good analysis, I'm liking your pick on To eliminate any confusion (mine), I've not consulted Bris numbers on this race. I broke it down into three parts, early , late and final speed abilities. So the contenders on my scorecard look like this:
Early: 5-9-12-10
Late: 11-7-2/9 (of course 11 did that with some of the slower early fracts)
Final: 5 - 9 - 7-10
So my simple scorecard tally is: gets 3/3 but no 1st; gets 2/3 both 1sts; & & get 2/3 but both in lower positions. With two #1's I will go with these on the turf:
Outrageous Bid 20-1 ML? (Jay's pick) Tiz A Chance 10-1 ML
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
|
|
|
10-26-2017, 09:06 AM
|
#27
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Fort Worth,Texas
Posts: 606
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Belmont Race #6: 10/26/17
Cordero 6-1 Will be forwardly placed because of post position and running style. Recent claim by Cox and the cut back in distance give hope. Pretender.
Djulpan 12-1 Maker and Ortiz should take some money. Last time Ortiz was on was close to the pace. Needs more class relief. Toss.
Sallisaw(MTO)7-2
War Stroll 7-2 Have to respect on the class drop and his last race might win this. Notice a long break in the works and is a concern. His good speed figures have been earned against better, but am a little wary. Contender.
Outragous Bet 20-1 3 yr old set career high speed figure 2 back. Saw State bred Allowance in his last and showed the effects of the race before. Now gets a little class relief, has 3 sharp works, and as a 3 yr old late in the fall is set to run another career best. My pick.
Camp Courage 5-1 Has seen the best races and figures in this race. But the obvious physical issues are a concern. Contender.
Lone Trader 12-1 His speed figures say he is a contender, and a Ortiz in the saddle adds to that illusion. Besides the has had the most chances to get his 3rd win. Toss.
Snake Oil Charlie 50-1 Never Mind.
Tiz A Chance 10-1 Since the claim has run figures that can win this race. But the lack of works and the jockey make me a non-believer. Toss.
Performance Bonus 3-1 Brown on the turf, with Castellano. The "please claim me horse" will take money and might surprise and win this, but I doubt it. Pretender.
Any Questions 12-1 The drop in class figures for this horse and might be what he needs. Not to thrilled with the trainer and jockey, but they have won together. On the fence here, but under perfect conditions could surprise. Let the odds make the decision, if under 12-1, consider.
Abbot 8-1 Was the favorite in last and at 8-1 here with the Rosario in the saddle is a solid choice. Contender.
If race is not on turf, will change.
|
My oddsline program has the following
5/2
4-1
6-1
6-1
8/1
|
|
|
10-26-2017, 12:05 PM
|
#28
|
math/science # cruncher
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 180
|
Great late kick and back class with a J/T combo winning at 20%
Stalks whatever pace that there is, then hangs in the lane
Clearly a standout on the figs, but lacks a punch in the stretch, while getting some much needed class relief today
3rd USA start, wasn't bet in last two, but gets a reasonable drop and figures as a threat based on last effort
Well supported in last two runs & despite that 2016 back class, he needs a top effort from a wide post this afternoon as the #9 horse beat him last time out who I don't like today.
A fringe player at best, too slow time wise, but can sneak into the bottom of the tri and super tickets
Playing a pick 3,4,6 / Grand Slam or Double? are a MUST use
|
|
|
10-26-2017, 01:31 PM
|
#29
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,047
|
It looks to me to be a slow pace set by the I'm thinking 23.5 47 1:11. Slow pace negates some of the closers I would consider at 7F. The horses that look to me to be close to the lead and have first jump on the 1 rounding for home are the and if the pace is hotter than expected I look at the last 7 panels race at Belmont and question why he shouldn't win this race with Irad aboard.
Exacta box
Don't love the and as much as the
Win bet on the if I can get 10-1
|
|
|
10-26-2017, 02:17 PM
|
#30
|
math/science # cruncher
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 180
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Immortal6
It looks to me to be a slow pace set by the I'm thinking 23.5 47 1:11. Slow pace negates some of the closers I would consider at 7F. The horses that look to me to be close to the lead and have first jump on the 1 rounding for home are the and if the pace is hotter than expected I look at the last 7 panels race at Belmont and question why he shouldn't win this race with Irad aboard.
Exacta box
Don't love the and as much as the
Win bet on the if I can get 10-1
|
I just have to stay away from the in this one. I feel his times are too slow for this bunch and needs a career best to land a share
What a great discussion this is from ALL points of view. I am enjoying this quite a bit.
|
|
|
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Rate This Thread |
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|