Pizzolla Rises Again -- with Dan Serra

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by keilan

Maybe I'm being a li'l thick tonight but can someone explain what he is saying?

I have to look up the specifics which I will quote after I find them.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Sounds to me like he's saying that, just because a horse may have the highest likely overall, start-to-finish velocity coming into a race, its running style (especially if it's a come-from-behind type) may not allow it to exploit that velocity potential enough to permit it to win today's race, depending on how the rest of the field shapes up in terms of running style, particularly if there are front-runners which don't "back up" as much as anticipated in the stretch. If the come-from-behind type waits too long to make its move, it won't be able to catch the pacesetters under those circumstances.

Essentially yes but with many other variants. Often an early runner (even with best velocity coming into this contest) is meeting a competitor that will make him go even faster to keep the lead and BOTH negate one another, OR the same TWO did well in their last respective races without much pace pressure (esentially over after the 2nd call) and coasted home which will not happen today. They come in with the best velocity but may not be there late. There are yet more variations on this same theme

[andicap]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Essentially yes but with many other variants. Often an early runner (even with best velocity coming into this contest) is meeting a competitor that will make him go even faster to keep the lead and BOTH negate one another, OR the same TWO did well in their last respective races without much pace pressure (esentially over after the 2nd call) and coasted home which will not happen today. They come in with the best velocity but may not be there late. There are yet more variations on this same theme

But no one is saying velocity is all important -- or rather that velocity as measured by AP (total velocity as measured in sprints as F1+F2+F3) is closely related to positional handicapping in and of itself.
Those who relate a horse's velocity for the entire race to position aren't really using pace or energy. Who doesn't consider F1 or EP velocity to determine if an E horse will get the lead? Or if an EP horse is quick enough to be on or near the pace? Or if an SP horse can be on or near the lead while running well within himself?
Those who don't are not really using pace to handicap via velocity figures. It's all energy as Keilan says. But some people use different terms.

Example, E horse in the past has exerted %E energy of 54.84% when facing an pace of "X". Today the pace could be X-2 seconds. Suddenly the horse does not have to exert that much energy early. He can get by with a 52.00 say because he will not be pressured. Suddenly he's a huge contender. Even better if he's an E/P horse. Brohamer certainly wrote about this.
Or conversely the "S" horse that ran in the above mentioned race where the E horse was able to get by on a 52.00 energy. The S has no shot in that race but is "live" in the race where the E has to run a 54.84 especially if he sucks a lot of other "E" and E/P or even P horses with him so they all stagger home in 27 (6f race) or more and the S horse picks up the pieces.
In a slower paced race (with lower %E pace) the S horse is limited even if he can stay close to the pace because the horses in front of him likely have enough energy left to run a 24 final fraction meaning it would take a Forego to pass them. But if all of the E or EP horses are stinkers the S horse with the huge F3 has a shot.
I'm not giving away any secrets here. Brohamer wrote about that too. It's pace/energy 101.

Keep track of the Pace of the Race %E and relate it to positional handicapping and you're ahead of the game.

[Lefty]

andicap, nice post, well explained.

[keilan]

Overlay - thanx for the interpretation I was totally lost reading this thread yesterday.

Andi – excellent post  In addition if you now factor in today’s track condition and qualify which horses are now advantaged because of track speed/estimated pace/race shape/%E the picture of the race begins to take focus.
There is a direct relationship between energy and pace but the 3rd variable in the equation is “today’s track speed”. All this might appear fairly straight forward but the player still is required to make accurate estimates of both track speed and expected pace or the concept means nothing.

46 – thanx for trying to clarify your thoughts

[Tom]

K-man....is THAT what you have trying to tell me for years!


I think I am finally "getting" %E....thanks to you and andicap.

[keilan]

Tom there’s a small charge to whoever “gets it” as of today you’re the 2nd guy.

[Vegas711]

Energy, Velocity it is all the same thing it is just 2 names for the same concept.
Energy just sounds more scientific.There are no complicated formulas just level 1 high school algebra invoved in there calculations.

Brohammer never wrote that position was superior to velocity.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Vegas711

Brohammer never wrote that position was superior to velocity.

Here is exactly what Brohamer wrote in Bet With the Best:

Pace figures are invaluable when used by competent handicappers, but they will never replace a careful analysis of pace based on running styles.

Horses will conform to their preferred running styles. They will not conform to the handicapper's sense of order based on a set of contrived numbers.

[Rferguson]

Looks like were getting way of the subject sombody start a Brohamer Thread

[cj]

Originally Posted by Rferguson

Looks like were getting way of the subject sombody start a Brohamer Thread

Sometimes it goes that way, but if you start a new thread you kind of lose what was being talked about, so most just go with it whatever direction it takes.

[Vegas711]

Originally Posted by cj

Here is exactly what Brohamer wrote in Bet With the Best:

I stand corrected.

[46zilzal]

"Pace figures are invaluable when used by competent handicappers, but they will never replace a careful analysis of pace based on running styles.

Horses will conform to their preferred running styles. They will not conform to the handicapper's sense of order based on a set of contrived numbers."

In reality it is somewhere in between

[John]

Yeah Cj, I think what Brohammer said, is realized by most Handicappers. When I say,to myself,think or feel, that #1 should have the lead. That does not make it happen.Horse are creatures of habit and most try to live up to there running style.

By the way CJ, I had a good day with pace figures on the turf .Closing day at Saratoga.

[ezpace]

Brohammer 1st edition.. page 48.... with regard to running styles as fwiw..

%early these guys cleared it up for me.. sharp IMO

read very carefully

http://www.sports-bet-advantage.com/sartpro2.htm