Down to $50.00: Strategies?

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

So, you spent $60, how much more will you play today? Is your daily outlay between $150-200?

More than that Fri-Sun, Mon, Wed just under what you quote. I guess on avg. pretty close.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by FlintAtTheFetlock

I agree, but how do I build up a better backroll without laying out more cash?

Employment.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by FlintAtTheFetlock

More than that Fri-Sun, Mon, Wed just under what you quote. I guess on avg. pretty close.

It looks like you'll need a bankroll of $10K to withstand the variance you'll experience at a 2% average daily outlay. I'm guessing you're playing with a BR between $2-3K.....it's just not enough to be at ease while playing your best game.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by FlintAtTheFetlock

I agree, but how do I build up a better backroll without laying out more cash?

Bet the $50 on Orlando +9 against Cleveland tonight.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

It looks like you'll need a bankroll of $10K to withstand the variance you'll experience at a 2% average daily outlay. I'm guessing you're playing with a BR between $2-3K.....it's just not enough to be at ease while playing your best game.

Could you please rephrase in simple terms your comment, and what I can do to improve my game. This started as 'how to climb back when low balance'.

Appreciate the feedback

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by FlintAtTheFetlock

Could you please rephrase in simple terms your comment, and what I can do to improve my game. This started as 'how to climb back when low balance'.

Appreciate the feedback

In all positive expectation gambling games , variance dominates in the short term and skill in the long term. Thus, without sufficient bankroll, a good player is not that differently situated to a losing player- they are both just gambling.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by FlintAtTheFetlock

Could you please rephrase in simple terms your comment, and what I can do to improve my game. This started as 'how to climb back when low balance'.

Appreciate the feedback

JMO, how about posting your 1 best selection to win at least one day in advance and provide a link to free pp's to help ensure participation?

But, even with this crowd it may not be a guarantee of that occurring.

I realize your specialty is multi race exotics but you need a large BR for these types of exotics, IMO.

Describe why you like him or her and wait for replies on here critiquing your selection (there'll probably be at least 1 or 2 per) and compare yours with theirs. If you agree with theirs, bet it, if not then bet your selection to win for $10 or $20 (no more or no less than these amounts) which will give you about 3 - 5 wagers before busting if it should ever occur.

If still uncertain then wait for the next race, remember you don't ever have to bet on a particular race.

I figure this way, you may not bust out for months if not years. In the meantime, continue building your BR from your job and by the time you bust this $50, your new BR will probably in the $000's.

[ultracapper]

Handicap like always, preparing for your P4, P5, or P6, and when you find a horse you know you are going to single, just put the $50 on it's nose. Demand some kind of a price, 3/1, 4/1, something that will give you some kind of a bump anyway. If 3/1 and your single wins, you have $200, and break this down into 4-$50 units, and do this again.

I agree with RR that you need a substantial bankroll to play those elongated horizontals you're playing, so this WILL take some time before you build up enough to start playing them properly again. The only other way to do it would be to take CJ's suggestion and make periodic deposits until you build up a sufficient bankroll. DO NOT play in the meantime. You'll just burn your money and never get where you need to be.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Bet the $50 on Orlando +9 against Cleveland tonight.

What kind of canned ravioli did you eat while watching Orlando lose by 12?

[Fox]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Bet the $50 on Orlando +9 against Cleveland tonight.

I was on that. Very disappointing.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

JMO, how about posting your 1 best selection to win at least one day in advance and provide a link to free pp's to help ensure participation?

But, even with this crowd it may not be a guarantee of that occurring.

I realize your specialty is multi race exotics but you need a large BR for these types of exotics, IMO.

Describe why you like him or her and wait for replies on here critiquing your selection (there'll probably be at least 1 or 2 per) and compare yours with theirs. If you agree with theirs, bet it, if not then bet your selection to win for $10 or $20 (no more or no less than these amounts) which will give you about 3 - 5 wagers before busting if it should ever occur.

If still uncertain then wait for the next race, remember you don't ever have to bet on a particular race.

I figure this way, you may not bust out for months if not years. In the meantime, continue building your BR from your job and by the time you bust this $50, your new BR will probably in the $000's.

Thanks... This was more in line with what I was seeking, although the bankroll comments really convince me my habit of depositing $300 + at a time, until gone, then repeat is foolish. My results tell me I could stay alive if I had just had the extra money in my account to sustain the window to next pick 4, 5 score.

I'm down to $70.00 once again so may take your suggestion and post my best bet Win bet. Tricky part will be to find value 3-1.

It will be really hard to break the mindset "I can hit this thin Pick 4, I know I can, and it only costs $12.00"

[whodoyoulike]

If you do decide to attempt this exercise then be honest with yourself:

1) Select the races which you feel you are very good at handicapping. Do you really even know?

2) These pick 3, 4, 5 and 6 races probably have some type of maiden races. I would say probably 1 - 3 of them are maidens unless, it's a major stakes day at the races.

Are you any good on these type of maiden races (i.e., FTS, 1 or 10 failed races etc.)?

3) Do you consider the odds because with multi-race picks, one never really knows their payoff odds. I know with the late odds changes every race even win betting is difficult to determine by post time.

4) Do you even consider the odds of your selection(s) at post time?

5) And for now, since I think it is affected by your hit rate, what are your acceptable odds e.g., for win and / or dutch betting?

Hopefully, others can suggest some other considerations which will help you and anyone else.

[ultracapper]

My bankroll is kind of in this condition right now. My play has been a bit week the past month or so and I've done some damage to the bankroll, where if I find what I consider a prime play and I jump, but fall flat, I'll have to do some repair work (deposit). I haven't made a deposit since April 18th, so I really want to fix this.

What I've done is broken my bankroll into 5 parts of varying units. I'm handicapping races in sets of 4, and will only bet the very best play of the 4. If nothing interests me in those 4 races, I'll move on to the next 4. The reason for the varying sizes of each part is to maximize anything I consider a real solid opportunity, yet allow myself to take a shot at any +EV plays, basically horses that have some holes, but because the price is solid, and the horse does have a chance, I can fire at it. The largest part is for a horse that I would put a personal maximum bet on, but can't at the moment because if it missed, I'd slaughter my bankroll.

I want to get to where I can make 2 maximum bets, miss them both, and still be able to make a maximum bet and if that 3rd one misses, still be in a better situation, bankroll wise, than I am at present. It's going to take 4 or 5 solid winners. Hopefully I'm where I want to be by the end of the month, but however long it takes is how long it takes. The most important things are to be very careful with that largest part, and don't get silly with the gambles (+EV) that I may make. I had to make a little mental tweek after last week, no big deal. I've had to do it before, and I'll have to do it again. As we all know, it's easy to get off the fundamentals now and again. You just have to step back and go through your handicapping bullet list and make sure you take every step that has proven successful.

[thaskalos]

Before we can discuss "bankroll management"...we should define what we mean by the word "bankroll". To me...a "bankroll" is the entire amount of money that I have allocated for my wagering venture. If my bankroll reaches anywhere NEAR the $50 level...then the war is lost...and the only thing left for me to do is to get out of the game and go lick my wounds. $50 isn't a "bankroll", it's a final "shot" to stay in action...and I no longer desire to put myself through such mental anguish.

If what we mean by "bankroll" is some small percentage of the overall wagering bankroll in our possession...then, I don't see the reason not to redeposit into our depleted wagering account. Short-term results are driven entirely by luck...that's why we employ bankroll-management strategies to begin with. If we put up a certain bankroll and we have confidence in ourselves...then, we shouldn't chicken-out after losing a small percentage of it. Even the BEST players have their downturns...but they PERSEVERE. IF the confidence is still there, that is.

[ultracapper]

Agree with the above post. If I thought I was capping as well as possible, and the reason for the present downturn was entirely due to just a run of bad luck, I wouldn't hesitate to get into cash reserves and fund my ADW to take a full, head on shot at the next good opportunity. But it hasn't been entirely due to bad luck. It's just been poor effort, to be honest. I feel it's probably better to work my way out of it rather than just say, hey, I'm going to buckle down now and drill the next one. That never works for me.

I feel like I have to prove it to myself before I start throwing money at myself. And in the process of proving it, I should be able to build the working bankroll back up where it belongs.

$50 is $50. What are you gonna do. It's a tough starting point in any financial endeavor, particularly this one.