Strange doings at Arapahoe Park (again)

[speldedo]

I wrote a similar post about two years ago. In the early double yesterday, the favorite won the first and paid $5. The $2 DD payoffs were as follows:


1 $160 (Odds 2-1)
2 $215 (Odds 4.5-1)
3 $311 (Odds 4.4-1)
4 SCR
5 $186 (2.2-1)
6 $1,399 (20.1/1)
7 $10 (Odds 7.3-1)

8 $400 (Odds 15-1)


The 3 won the second so a 3/2 winner combined with 9/2 winner paid $311!
I had a $1 DD and was amazed.


The 7 horse in the second race had a morning line of 20-1 (which was too high), but obviously something unusual was going on.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by speldedo

I wrote a similar post about two years ago. In the early double yesterday, the favorite won the first and paid $5. The $2 DD payoffs were as follows:


1 $160 (Odds 2-1)
2 $215 (Odds 4.5-1)
3 $311 (Odds 4.4-1)
4 SCR
5 $186 (2.2-1)
6 $1,399 (20.1/1)
7 $10 (Odds 7.3-1)

8 $400 (Odds 15-1)


The 3 won the second so a 3/2 winner combined with 9/2 winner paid $311!
I had a $1 DD and was amazed.


The 7 horse in the second race had a morning line of 20-1 (which was too high), but obviously something unusual was going on.

The only thing "going on" is the pools are tiny.

You got lucky. Nice hit.

[cj]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

The only thing "going on" is the pools are tiny.

You got lucky. Nice hit.

Tiny pools for sure, but there is definitely a chance someone is manipulating the tiny pools for bigger scores betting offshore or otherwise not in the pools.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by cj

Tiny pools for sure, but there is definitely a chance someone is manipulating the tiny pools for bigger scores betting offshore or otherwise not in the pools.

no doubt about it either, welcome to the world of the CAW

[Maximillion]

Actually been very formful with some prices.I like it much better than the Ohio tracks for sure.

[Inner Dirt]

What was the morning line on the $5 horse, and was he ML favorite? From memory, and take that with a grain of salt, at small tracks with low handles
beating the ML favorite, is of the utmost importance getting a decent price
on a multiple race horizontal wagers. Hitting a DD or P3 with all ML favorites can end up often paying at parlay or less. I have ran across too many to count of the not so studious horse players that never leave the ML favorite
out of any exotic bet. It does not matter if that ML was a big mistake and ended up 3rd on the board when the race went off.


A good example was a P6 I hit at Los Alamitos. It was a QH trial night for a derby. Every ML favorite won, and with $2 parlay at over $200 it paid $70. If a couple of those 2-5 shots got beat by a second choice it probably would have paid well over parlay. If I think a P6 has bunch of ML favorites that are going to win at odds on I will play a $5 or $10 straight ticket, or maybe throw in 2 horses in one or two of the races.


I never understood why some bettors, and many here have, complain of a bad ML, you can take advantage of that. If anyone knows of a small track with an inept track handicapper setting bad ML's send me a PM. If I can take advantage I will be more than happy to send you a case of your favorite hard alcohol and if you don't drink a box of Omaha Steaks.

[speldedo]

I think the attached will show proof of manipulation

[cnollfan]

I saw this going on with Will Rogers quinella pools a couple years ago. Hard to believe a bookie would have limits high enough to make this worthwhile while at the same time being naive enough not to recognize the manipulation, but it's the most likely explanation.

[ranchwest]

Reminds me of when I had a Canadian account into which I could wager on US tracks and it was not comingled. So, at one minute to post at a small track, there were often multiple horses with zero bet to show. I'd toss in a couple bucks and sometimes the payoff might be like $28 or something. Just entertainment, but fun.

[davew]

Originally Posted by speldedo

I think the attached will show proof of manipulation

could be some rich person not understanding how parimutual works. They bet something like all/7 for $500. $3000 of the $3700 pool

[cnollfan]

Guy who doesn't understand pari-mutuel wagering decides to back-wheel a 1 for 12 horse at 20-1 ML for $3,000 at obscure track.

These are like the ever-more-intricate calculations they used to use to try to prove that the sun and stars revolved around the Earth.

[shout1966]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

What was the morning line on the $5 horse, and was he ML favorite? From memory, and take that with a grain of salt, at small tracks with low handles
beating the ML favorite, is of the utmost importance getting a decent price
on a multiple race horizontal wagers. Hitting a DD or P3 with all ML favorites can end up often paying at parlay or less. I have ran across too many to count of the not so studious horse players that never leave the ML favorite
out of any exotic bet. It does not matter if that ML was a big mistake and ended up 3rd on the board when the race went off.


A good example was a P6 I hit at Los Alamitos. It was a QH trial night for a derby. Every ML favorite won, and with $2 parlay at over $200 it paid $70. If a couple of those 2-5 shots got beat by a second choice it probably would have paid well over parlay. If I think a P6 has bunch of ML favorites that are going to win at odds on I will play a $5 or $10 straight ticket, or maybe throw in 2 horses in one or two of the races.


I never understood why some bettors, and many here have, complain of a bad ML, you can take advantage of that. If anyone knows of a small track with an inept track handicapper setting bad ML's send me a PM. If I can take advantage I will be more than happy to send you a case of your favorite hard alcohol and if you don't drink a box of Omaha Steaks.

ML on the was 9/2.


the pick 4 paid $100.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by speldedo

I wrote a similar post about two years ago. In the early double yesterday, the favorite won the first and paid $5. The $2 DD payoffs were as follows:


1 $160 (Odds 2-1)
2 $215 (Odds 4.5-1)
3 $311 (Odds 4.4-1)
4 SCR
5 $186 (2.2-1)
6 $1,399 (20.1/1)
7 $10 (Odds 7.3-1)

8 $400 (Odds 15-1)


The 3 won the second so a 3/2 winner combined with 9/2 winner paid $311!
I had a $1 DD and was amazed.


The 7 horse in the second race had a morning line of 20-1 (which was too high), but obviously something unusual was going on.

Small enough pool to manipulate the payoffs to be much higher on the likely winners of the second leg. They do this to hammer off shore where the money bet is not comingled. Imagine that an off shore has (for example) a $50 limit on a DD combination. $50 double to the 3 would pay $7800, twice the amount of the entire pool bet comingled.

The down side of doing this off shore is the likelihood that you'll be cut off soon. But I believe that is the explanation here. They pick a small track with small pools so the "giveaway" investment is small enough they can profit in the real betting off shore.