Handicapping exercise

[cj]

There is so much information in the PPs these days it can be overwhelming at times. Some of the information can be confusing at times, and different items can be conflicting.

Something I've started doing this past six months that has helped me is to find the ONE piece of information that I feel is most important for each horse in a race. It may be a speed figure, a trainer stat, a trainer change, a bad post position, a prior trip, and equipment change...literally anything that can found in the PPs (or personal notes). I think you'll be surprised how often finding that one thing will tell you much of what you need to know about a horse.

I'm not saying the other stuff doesn't matter, but view the other data with an eye on the piece of info you find most important. It has helped me narrow down focus which never hurts when there is so much to see.

[pondman]

That's the beginning. But to be profitable it's necessary to assign a significance to a variable. And then making a profit becomes as easy as solving a daily sudoku puzzle.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by cj

There is so much information in the PPs these days it can be overwhelming at times. Some of the information can be confusing at times, and different items can be conflicting.

Something I've started doing this past six months that has helped me is to find the ONE piece of information that I feel is most important for each horse in a race. It may be a speed figure, a trainer stat, a trainer change, a bad post position, a prior trip, and equipment change...literally anything that can found in the PPs (or personal notes). I think you'll be surprised how often finding that one thing will tell you much of what you need to know about a horse.

I'm not saying the other stuff doesn't matter, but view the other data with an eye on the piece of info you find most important. It has helped me narrow down focus which never hurts when there is so much to see.

The other stuff matter exactly because they are the hints to the ONE piece of information that really matters!

[cj]

Originally Posted by pondman

That's the beginning. But to be profitable it's necessary to assign a significance to a variable. And then making a profit becomes as easy as solving a daily sudoku puzzle.

There are too many variables in my opinion, each with a margin of error, to be able to quantify them all. This is why I think it is important to focus on the most important one and work from there. That one piece will often make many of the others irrelevant.

[AltonKelsey]

I posted this three days ago in another thread.

It's a complicated game. The real skill in horseplay is seeing past all the noise and focusing in on the 1 or 2 things that REALLY matter TODAY. Hard to do. Even harder to do consistently.

[JJMartin]

Since the beginning of my research involving a database, my method was to always find the best horse in a race by comparing all the horses in the race to each other. A lot of useful information was gained but still felt lacking in the overall long term results. Not until recently, I started only looking at just an individual horse's history with no regard to the other horse's in any particular race that horse was in. In other words I started following the horse not the race. So after developing a certain set of criteria and deeming any given horse as "ready", I ran the method through and got amazing results. Anyone else tried something similar?

[sjk]

The great thing about living in the age of computers is that while it is difficult for a person to absorb and utilize all of the published information, a computer is not limited in this way.

[cj]

Originally Posted by sjk

The great thing about living in the age of computers is that while it is difficult for a person to absorb and utilize all of the published information, a computer is not limited in this way.

Of course this is true. I use computers a ton. In my case what I posted can be done with programing and/or querying databases too, finding the most important factor for each horse.

[JBmadera]

I remember the old days where the real chore was finding the data (or crafting it), I would fantasize about how great I would do if I just had enough data. Now that we are overwhelmed with data the exercise is finding what works - still the greatest game in the world.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by cj

There is so much information in the PPs these days it can be overwhelming at times. Some of the information can be confusing at times, and different items can be conflicting.

Something I've started doing this past six months that has helped me is to find the ONE piece of information that I feel is most important for each horse in a race. It may be a speed figure, a trainer stat, a trainer change, a bad post position, a prior trip, and equipment change...literally anything that can found in the PPs (or personal notes). I think you'll be surprised how often finding that one thing will tell you much of what you need to know about a horse.

I'm not saying the other stuff doesn't matter, but view the other data with an eye on the piece of info you find most important. It has helped me narrow down focus which never hurts when there is so much to see.

On a horse by horse basis within the race?

#1 - Best speed fig (last two or whatever)
#2 - will control race today. against bias last but will ride bias today. set for new top.
#3 - major class drop
#4 - signs of life in latest - has back figs to be competitive. (again fig based).
#5 - major trainer upgrade. Or strong trainer pattern for this event.

Determine the most significant attribute for each horse.

Then you weigh these distinct attributes against one another and against odds.

Is this what you mean?

[ultracapper]

I've been thinking on this for 5 minutes, and I can't come up with an answer. The info is so intertwined. When I come up with one thing, it brings me to an if/but situation every time.

Good exercise.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by pondman

That's the beginning. But to be profitable it's necessary to assign a significance to a variable. And then making a profit becomes as easy as solving a daily sudoku puzzle.

So, you're making a profit?

[CincyHorseplayer]

I was thinking of this but from the perspective of self focus. I have been doing some handicapping exercise this winter in the form of clarifying what I am doing. We don't realize how much autopilot we run on in the course of looking at hundreds if not thousands of races per year and all the accompanying info. Much of my focus has been on method and process. I noticed after looking at my betting records for 16 that I was terrible on dirt and that was after straightening out my approach in 15 with excellent results. Doesn't take long to slip into sloppy habits. Reason? I had a well thought out process for handicapping turf races. But exactly no method at all on dirt races. So I sat down with some notebook and paper and started doing outlines and polishing up my techniques. The results have been more efficiency and less holes. The reason I feel this is so important is because it creates a consistency that is measureable. It is not at the mercy of natural swings n betting cycles or payoff distribution. In fact I found that a stretch of low payoffs would alter my approach toward the races to find the value. When all that was required was patience.

To CJ's post this is almost the handicapper's equivalent of projection. I used to talk about the single factor methodology a few years ago. Simply defining what will be the most important factor in this particular race.