Bowling alleys and race tracks

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Candybag

We have our first state that will be targeted for the idea. Cannot release the name yet. The horsemen will be approached within a week.

The following may not be the best ideas, just to start conversation:

For the $50 a day bettor, I have some promotional ideas to get them to the track

For the up to $500 a day bettor: Fixed odds wagering, prop bets and exchange wagering. It is very possible the sharpies get barred from action or bets limited, still a better deal for the casual bettor

For the CAWs: No change

We have an owner of a ADW on board with ideas.

We also have a board member of a racetrack on board with ideas.

Would need legislation to get player friendly wagering ideas to happen if all goes well.

I'll bite.

re: For the up to $500 a day bettor: Fixed odds wagering, prop bets and exchange wagering. It is very possible the sharpies get barred from action or bets limited, still a better deal for the casual bettor

These are all gravy type wagers as I posted recently. They are a great addition for the experienced horse player that can hold his own in this game, because they may provide additional and/or better opportunities. They all have to be done correctly which is unlikely imo. But as long as the typical gambler is handicapping and has other opportunities (the exotics) 9 out of 10
will continue losing 25% to 35% in these pool they will still leave the game. If you don't fix the pricing across the board this game cannot succeed. From a personal standpoint I am for all of it.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

......It's not just about the track take. We need less efficient pools to give us all a better chance of profit or the game will eventually become obsolete.

Was there a time in parimutuel history where pools were significantly less efficient?



Who would reap the benefits of the less efficient pools?



Wouldn't less efficient pools mean smaller pools or just lot more uninformed bettors?

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Was there a time in parimutuel history where pools were significantly less efficient?



Who would reap the benefits of the less efficient pools?



Wouldn't less efficient pools mean smaller pools or just lot more uninformed bettors?

If you listen to Andy Breyer or dick Jerardi on the bet with the best podcast there were times and places that good speed figures could make you a lot of money. t never had the feeling that Southern California thoroughbreds were easy but I was probably late on the figure train. I can’t speak for ch but I think when he sees one horse with a 96 beyer the other with an 88 beyer and he has strong reasons to like the horse with the 88 beyer he finds himself often disappointed with the closing odds. That is the nature of the beast. You encourage the sharpest money with rebates, you drive away the sucker money, what else can you expect. Even rich gamblers who bet recklessly want to feel like they are getting a fair shake. This industry fails to deliver. My personal opinion is keying that horse with the 88 Beyer will provide some value in the pick 4 to pick 6 pools (blind legs) even if he fails to provide value for the race, especially with a high morning line. Just my belief, right or wrong.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Was there a time in parimutuel history where pools were significantly less efficient?



Who would reap the benefits of the less efficient pools?



Wouldn't less efficient pools mean smaller pools or just lot more uninformed bettors?

1. Definitely. If you did a lot of manual work, you could find way more solid horses at very attractive prices than now. My best results cane from trainer patterns decades ago. There's no way I could get the same prices on those horses now.

2. I think to some degree everyone would benefit. Just as lowering the track take would help, so would less efficient pools. They might also attract more math/computer oriented players, but on the current path guys like us are going to keep throwing in the towel.

3. From my perspective I want as many beginners and less informed people as possible. Some will eventually get serious and get very good, but we need big pools with a lot of uninformed betters kind of like we still get on some big race days now.

Sometimes horseplayers are too generous with the broad public. I'm not sure if it's an ego thing, a desire for recognition or in some cases people looking to sell information or get jobs in the industry, but this is the only sport where competitors like to show their competition their own playbook before the game.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I think you are missing my point too. Those former "OTB type" players that you think should be "brought back" to the game have already tried this game out and have REJECTED it. They are not new customers that you are trying to attract to a new gambling/entertainment experience by way of some sort of "imaginative marketing". Once you try a game out and you reject it for whatever reason, and you go out and find a different game to play...why would you return to your former game, unless this game changes in some fundamental way so it could again become interesting to you? Have you seen our favorite game become more "interesting" lately so it can regain the customers that it has already lost?

I hear what you are saying. I am not necessarily talking about those specific people. I am talking about the guy that likes to gamble a little but is never going to be a serious player watching replays, making figures etc.... People like that still show up on the really big days, but more of them used to be the kind of guy that went to OTB a few days a week. There's a next generation of people like that we need to attract.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I hear what you are saying. I am not necessarily talking about those specific people. I am talking about the guy that likes to gamble a little but is never going to be a serious player watching replays, making figures etc.... People like that still show up on the really big days, but more of them used to be the kind of guy that went to OTB a few days a week. There's a next generation of people like that we need to attract.

Question for you: Have you ever done any sports betting? And if not...why not?

[Poindexter]

Thaskalos, you are constantly talking how easy it is to beat sports. If you are that good, congrats. I have done a lot of simulations on 11/10 betting and imo you pretty much have to be able to hit 55 percent long term if you want it to amount to anything significant long term. Higher would be much preferred. That is very hard for most. Go to the eog forum and view the play of the day thread. These are passionate sports bettors giving their best play each day. This has been going on for years. The guy at the site tracks their records and puts it up every few days. Go through the list and tell me what percentage of those posted records on that list make you think 55 percent is easily attainable?
Most people lose sports betting too. They just aren’t getting crushed on the pricing if they don’t venture away from the 11/10 plays. If I recall correctly I think Vegas takes about 15 percent on sports betting, so obviously a lot of folks do venture away from just 11/10 bets.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Question for you: Have you ever done any sports betting? And if not...why not?

I bet on basketball, but not a lot of games. I'm a big Knicks fan since the late 60s as a kid. It grew over time to following the details of every team in the league. It's just my personality to take things I enjoy to such an extreme that betting on them eventually makes sense.

I don't bet any other sports other than an occasional boxing match, but I don't follow that sport as much anymore so I haven't bet in awhile.

I'm not sure the point you are making. You and I are not the type of player I am talking about. I'm talking about my grandmother who when she was alive (RIP) would bet every single Nick Zito horse because he was Italian. She would spend every afternoon in the Grand Ave Maspeth OTB with other people just like her betting $30-$40 a day.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

1. Definitely. If you did a lot of manual work, you could find way more solid horses at very attractive prices than now. My best results cane from trainer patterns decades ago. There's no way I could get the same prices on those horses now.

2. I think to some degree everyone would benefit. Just as lowering the track take would help, so would less efficient pools. They might also attract more math/computer oriented players, but on the current path guys like us are going to keep throwing in the towel.

3. From my perspective I want as many beginners and less informed people as possible. Some will eventually get serious and get very good, but we need big pools with a lot of uninformed betters kind of like we still get on some big race days now.

Sometimes horseplayers are too generous with the broad public. I'm not sure if it's an ego thing, a desire for recognition or in some cases people looking to sell information or get jobs in the industry, but this is the only sport where competitors like to show their competition their own playbook before the game.

The fact of the matter is even with a 10% ROI you have to put an enormous amount of money through the windows to make horseplaying worthwhile relative to just working a 9 to 5 job for a living. I've heard sports bettors discuss the years it took them to build a bankroll to a worthwhile level. I spent ten years myself living out of my bankroll when I was a full time horseplayer and it never grew much at all from year to year even with the ROI, the consistent annual profits and hundreds of thousands per year through the windows. It costs money to live. Some of these 'pros' we hear about today had a massive hit or two. They didn't grind. They hit something massive, banked it and now I guess you could say it allowed for an existence. Do you even want that type of existence? Frankly I don't.

The teams (now we're talking) achieve the growth because they're massively scaled across multiple tracks and multiple pools, pushing millions and getting the rebates. Most one-man operations are going to find it almost impossible to reach that scale. I was a one track player and that doesn't scale period, I didn't have product then but still, even if I did, how many replays can someone watch? The other sad fact of the matter is selling data was completely gutted by the ADWs giving away free PPs. So if anyone really wanted innovation to occur and be made available you'll need to get us all into a time machine because that ship sailed right then and there.

Are there some people making money selling data? Of course I'm sure there's a handful making an ok salary but they know it's far easier to collect a check like Ragozin did than to go through the meat grinder true gamblers put themselves though every day. All of this easy money people are talking about in the old days with speed figure standouts, it never was easy because money management was always a much bigger problem than the handicapping.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Thaskalos, you are constantly talking how easy it is to beat sports. If you are that good, congrats. I have done a lot of simulations on 11/10 betting and imo you pretty much have to be able to hit 55 percent long term if you want it to amount to anything significant long term. Higher would be much preferred. That is very hard for most. Go to the eog forum and view the play of the day thread. These are passionate sports bettors giving their best play each day. This has been going on for years. The guy at the site tracks their records and puts it up every few days. Go through the list and tell me what percentage of those posted records on that list make you think 55 percent is easily attainable?
Most people lose sports betting too. They just aren’t getting crushed on the pricing if they don’t venture away from the 11/10 plays. If I recall correctly I think Vegas takes about 15 percent on sports betting, so obviously a lot of folks do venture away from just 11/10 bets.

You are wrong once again Poindexter, I don't "constantly" talk about sports betting, nor have I ever posted about "how easy it is to beat sports". I thought that a smart Republican guy like you would be a bit more observant than that. I talk about sports betting very infrequently here...and I have only said that it's easier to beat sports than it is to beat the horses. "Easy" is not a word that I would ever use when referring to the profit potential of any gambling game.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by MJC922

The fact of the matter is even with a 10% ROI you have to put an enormous amount of money through the windows to make horseplaying worthwhile relative to just working a 9 to 5 job for a living.

Come on, let's get serious here. If you have a 10% ROI you can get rich in a couple of years, which is unheard of while working a 9 to 5 job. And you only need a couple of thousand dollars to start. You start with a $2,000 bankroll and bet $20 per horse to win. 10 win bets a day and a 10% ROI allows you to double your money every 100 days. Bet for 300 days per year and the $2,000 bankroll grows to $128,000 in two years...at which time you can retire from your 9 to 5 job and earn $1,280 per day while betting horses from the comfort of your own home.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Come on, let's get serious here. If you have a 10% ROI you can get rich in a couple of years, which is unheard of while working a 9 to 5 job. And you only need a couple of thousand dollars to start. You start with a $2,000 bankroll and bet $20 per horse to win. 10 win bets a day and a 10% ROI allows you to double your money every 100 days. Bet for 300 days per year and the $2,000 bankroll grows to $128,000 in two years...at which time you can retire from your 9 to 5 job and earn $1,280 per day while betting horses from the comfort of your own home.

Yea let's get serious, you missed the part about living out of the bankroll I guess. I make much more working for a living now than I ever did gambling and am I rich? Don't make me laugh.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Yea let's get serious, you missed the part about living out of the bankroll I guess.

Why live out of the bankroll? Bet the 10 horses before you go to work...and keep your daytime job for two years.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Yea let's get serious, you missed the part about living out of the bankroll I guess. I make much more working for a living now than I ever did gambling and am I rich? Don't make me laugh.

Let me ask you a question. If you were sure that you could earn a 10% ROI at the track today...how many playable horses a day do you think you could find to bet on?

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Let me ask you a question. If you were sure that you could earn a 10% ROI at the track today...how many playable horses a day do you think you could find to bet on?

Probably the same as then I would guess, about 2 prime bets per day. Other races action. Would have to handicap all races and watch all races every day. So there's no betting in the AM and then go do your 9 to 5, that IS your 9 to 5. And if it isn't the 10% isn't possible. So yea 2000 bankroll $100 on primes right? that's like 10 prime bets per week for your track, 1000 invested , 4k per month invested, you made $400. I think the low rent in this area is $1400 at the moment so yea you're getting rich quick.