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Old 04-01-2021, 03:21 PM   #16
Wiley
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Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
War Emblem ran in the earlier preps (Lecomte and Risen Star) but not in the La Derby.
From memory, thanks for the correction, thought he made the LA derby too.
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Old 04-01-2021, 06:05 PM   #17
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buck passer in the X

Basically there were very few exceptions to the rule that follows: Ky Derby winners come out of one of the big 5 prep races well over 90 percent of the time
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Old 04-01-2021, 07:27 PM   #18
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Kentucky Derby winners by prep race

Nearly all winners over last two decades came out of the FL, SA, or Ark Derbies, not that the Wood or Bluegrass haven’t been excluded from hitting the board. Keeneland probably wasn’t helped by the fake dirt they had for a number of years. The Wood simply hasn’t been as effective In general as it once was and this is reflected in its downgrade to G2 status in 2017.
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Old 04-08-2021, 10:59 PM   #19
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Kentucky Derby winners by prep race

Nearly all winners over last two decades came out of the FL, SA, or Ark Derbies, not that the Wood or Bluegrass haven’t been excluded from hitting the board. Keeneland probably wasn’t helped by the fake dirt they had for a number of years. The Wood simply hasn’t been as effective In general as it once was and this is reflected in its downgrade to G2 status in 2017.

Thx for the share ... solid stuff
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Old 04-21-2021, 08:14 AM   #20
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Does anyone have the "Final" List? I need to figure out my exacta play
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Old 04-21-2021, 07:48 PM   #21
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Does anyone have the "Final" List? I need to figure out my exacta play
They're either holding info close to the vest, or this forum has become a ghost town. Seriously though, where did everyone go? One week before Derby...this place should be hopping! I am hyped for the start of the Triple Crown.
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Old 04-22-2021, 06:45 AM   #22
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Or maybe you should do your own homework? I have all the info you guys want and more, But this game isn't us against them, its me against you. The more people the bet on the horse I want, the lower the odds.

Lot's of guys, the same as in most years, have posted what they think of some horses and why. I have two angles that have an impact value of 2.5 based on ideas I got from stans work (great work by the way). He gave us a gift. But you don't want to do the work to use his gift. Hell guys, want me to give you the money to bet too???????

https://www.pedigreequery.com/

Last edited by Raider; 04-22-2021 at 06:47 AM.
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Old 04-22-2021, 08:27 AM   #23
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Or maybe you should do your own homework? I have all the info you guys want and more, But this game isn't us against them, its me against you. The more people the bet on the horse I want, the lower the odds.

Lot's of guys, the same as in most years, have posted what they think of some horses and why. I have two angles that have an impact value of 2.5 based on ideas I got from stans work (great work by the way). He gave us a gift. But you don't want to do the work to use his gift. Hell guys, want me to give you the money to bet too???????

https://www.pedigreequery.com/
While I understand your point...
It's the Kentucky Derby, not the 5th at Mahoning Valley on a Tuesday afternoon. The pool will be over $60 million...I seriously doubt that information posted here is going to move the needle by even one point.
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Old 04-22-2021, 09:29 AM   #24
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Or maybe you should do your own homework? I have all the info you guys want and more, But this game isn't us against them, its me against you. The more people the bet on the horse I want, the lower the odds.

Lot's of guys, the same as in most years, have posted what they think of some horses and why. I have two angles that have an impact value of 2.5 based on ideas I got from stans work (great work by the way). He gave us a gift. But you don't want to do the work to use his gift. Hell guys, want me to give you the money to bet too???????

https://www.pedigreequery.com/
Kinda thought that this forum was for sharing info. With the amount of people all over the world who bet on the Derby that for people to change the odds on a horse in the Kentucky Derby with info they learned on this site is nonsense won't happen. I have done really good the last 15 years making money on Derby day by making a chart with post position, points, horse, last race place, 2nd last race place, 1 1/8 finish time, last 3/8 time, last 1/8 time, last 1/4 mile time, brisnet lp number, jock, trainer, large heart trait, ran, buckpasser, broodmare, Jon Whites points & odds. That's 18 columns with 17 angles. I then take highlighters green yellow and red and highlight the good, ok and bad of each horse. So here are 2 examples: Jon Whites strikes if a horse has 0-1 strikes I highlight in green because 81% of Derby winners since 1973 have won with 0-1 strikes. 2 strikes get yellow because since 1973 just 7 horses have won and every other horse gets red. Now last 1/4 of a mile time if the horse has a time under 25.3 he gets green and a horse over that gets red because 35 of the last 48 winners 78% were under 25.3. Green good yellow ok red BAD. Do that with angles for each column and when finished you will see 1, 2 maybe 3 horses to be on TOP and which to put under. I did not do this in 2020 (didn't bet the Derby last year covid) and for 2019 it showed Max Security and I still have the win ticket with Max Security and exacta and tri tic's on top of Country House. Every year I have done this I have had the winner. So share info it's not gonna change anything.
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Old 04-22-2021, 10:04 AM   #25
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These are the ones I noted from the top 22 potentials.

Dynamic One (tail)
Highly Motivated
Known Agenda
Like the King (x2)
Mandaloun
Medina Spirit (x2)
Rock Your World
Sanithood
Soup and Sandwich
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Old 04-22-2021, 12:08 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by garywpt View Post
Kinda thought that this forum was for sharing info. With the amount of people all over the world who bet on the Derby that for people to change the odds on a horse in the Kentucky Derby with info they learned on this site is nonsense won't happen. I have done really good the last 15 years making money on Derby day by making a chart with post position, points, horse, last race place, 2nd last race place, 1 1/8 finish time, last 3/8 time, last 1/8 time, last 1/4 mile time, brisnet lp number, jock, trainer, large heart trait, ran, buckpasser, broodmare, Jon Whites points & odds. That's 18 columns with 17 angles. I then take highlighters green yellow and red and highlight the good, ok and bad of each horse. So here are 2 examples: Jon Whites strikes if a horse has 0-1 strikes I highlight in green because 81% of Derby winners since 1973 have won with 0-1 strikes. 2 strikes get yellow because since 1973 just 7 horses have won and every other horse gets red. Now last 1/4 of a mile time if the horse has a time under 25.3 he gets green and a horse over that gets red because 35 of the last 48 winners 78% were under 25.3. Green good yellow ok red BAD. Do that with angles for each column and when finished you will see 1, 2 maybe 3 horses to be on TOP and which to put under. I did not do this in 2020 (didn't bet the Derby last year covid) and for 2019 it showed Max Security and I still have the win ticket with Max Security and exacta and tri tic's on top of Country House. Every year I have done this I have had the winner. So share info it's not gonna change anything.
You and PoT are both right on the odds and sharing the Knowledge thats what stan did with his book. I learned from him and use what he taught me So garywpt thank you for sharing your method.

Give a man a fish feed him for a day , show him how to make a pole, thread the line, bait the hook and give him the pole and he says " Let me know when you have my fish"? Throw the pole in the water and walk away, or use him for bait. all the info is out there, go get it.

I have learned a lot from this site, and I USE what I have learned. Hell, my first few years of this I was breaking down the times by hand,all the races on the trail, I Know how much work it is. Now I have a program that does it for me. EquSim

its way past my bedtime, I am getting cranky, good night
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Old 04-22-2021, 12:22 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Raider View Post
Or maybe you should do your own homework? I have all the info you guys want and more, But this game isn't us against them, its me against you. The more people the bet on the horse I want, the lower the odds.

Lot's of guys, the same as in most years, have posted what they think of some horses and why. I have two angles that have an impact value of 2.5 based on ideas I got from stans work (great work by the way). He gave us a gift. But you don't want to do the work to use his gift. Hell guys, want me to give you the money to bet too???????

https://www.pedigreequery.com/
Now the lack of traffic here makes more sense.
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Old 04-22-2021, 01:57 PM   #28
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Now the lack of traffic here makes more sense.
You’re going to see that in any forum. It helps to give some time for people to respond as I did earlier. I, and probably most others, don’t check this forum every hour like some might. I doubt most are too concerned about someone throwing a few bucks on a Derby tip when there’s millions in the pool. I just don’t think there’s as much Derby fever this year. Perhaps a little fatigue from last year, perhaps other distractions.
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Old 04-22-2021, 08:01 PM   #29
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You’re going to see that in any forum. It helps to give some time for people to respond as I did earlier. I, and probably most others, don’t check this forum every hour like some might. I doubt most are too concerned about someone throwing a few bucks on a Derby tip when there’s millions in the pool. I just don’t think there’s as much Derby fever this year. Perhaps a little fatigue from last year, perhaps other distractions.
Thanks for the reply buddy. You're actually one of the guys here that I follow closely. The angles you play have won me quite a bit of money on the Derby over the past 5-6 years. Like you, Known Agenda is a must play for me on top this year, along with Essential Quality. I can't really come up with any others that I can justify in the win spot. I like how Medina Spirit worked the other day, and I think Baffert used the SA as an opportunity to rate the horse & see how it would go. He actually broke better than Rock Your World and could easily put on the lead but the connections didn't appear to want that out of him that day. I am going to use him underneath for sure.

RYW ran a nice race and a big Beyer but he had about the most favorable trip a horse could have too. Maybe he turns into a monster but I don't think he has it that easy next Saturday. What's your thoughts on RYW and Medina Spirit?
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Old 04-22-2021, 08:21 PM   #30
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i just read a post that said in the last 20 years Baffert horses that did not win their final prep are 0-12 NOT hitting the top 4 finishers. will look more into it but a good thing to know
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