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Old 04-21-2021, 11:55 PM   #46
ReplayRandall
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Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
For the most part, last year won't serve as prologue because (due to covid) few tracks had been open at the time we resumed racing in late May, thus invading horses held no ostensible fitness edge vs Mountaineer lay-overs. That will be different this season as more ship- ins will have raced recently.

Still, a potentially repeatable trend , or two, did emerge as invaders showing a race in 2020-even as far back as Jan (some 4 months before our opening night) FAR outperformed those absent since the previous year. Also, Mahoning horses won significantly more than their share, and this WOULD continue LONG after Mountaineer runners got fit.

As to Mnr lay-ups, these runners performed abysmally during the meet's first two weeks but, interestingly, began to knock down some purses after that (and I don't mean Mnr runners showing a prep race). Which implies that barns taking more time to prepare comebackers saw those returnees far outperform Mnr horses rushed into the entry box right off the bat. Trainer Eddie Clouston's stock well-exemplified this, as the further our meet progressed, the better his comebackers ran.

Over the years, though, certain constants hold true during the initial stages of our season: 1) Invaders SIGNIFICANTLY outperform Mnr runners competing off the bench.. 2) Mnr layups post a lower IV, but also pay much better prices..3) Certain barns will come out FIRING, and predicting which outfits will hit the ground running constitutes guesswork as it varies from year to year. Last year, for example, James Barker (a more than competent horseman to begin with..) enjoyed great success right from the gate, while, several years back, Steve Larue, a more generic and lower-percentage trainer, dominated our first few weeks.

I hope this will be helpful.
Thank you, Sir....
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Old 04-22-2021, 02:55 PM   #47
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One thing has made me STACKS over the years. Betting against horses who in the previous start hung on their left lead through the stretch. It's amazing how often it signals a decline in form. GOLDEN
One thing especially valuable about insights like this, is that they aren't usually well-represented with other models.

Race watching has many of it's often significant models captured with specialized individual models;
I can see pace and speed(perhaps usually better) with 'figures'. I can see 'flow' with charts. I can read the 'comments'. I have all the 'angles', etc...
A lot of competent race watching is taking a glance to verify significant things from an individual model.

Gate stuff, breaks, drafting, false-Obvious trouble, subtle trouble, kickback, fundamental footwork, significant body language/ears/etc..., and other occasional stuff can many times not find it's way to the 'Comments' or any other model. Once in a while they are significant to today's value.
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Old 04-22-2021, 03:48 PM   #48
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One thing especially valuable about insights like this, is that they aren't usually well-represented with other models.

Race watching has many of it's often significant models captured with specialized individual models;
I can see pace and speed(perhaps usually better) with 'figures'. I can see 'flow' with charts. I can read the 'comments'. I have all the 'angles', etc...
A lot of competent race watching is taking a glance to verify significant things from an individual model.

Gate stuff, breaks, drafting, false-Obvious trouble, subtle trouble, kickback, fundamental footwork, significant body language/ears/etc..., and other occasional stuff can many times not find it's way to the 'Comments' or any other model. Once in a while they are significant to today's value.
Part of the problem with the chart comments is that it is so hard to translate these observations into operative information for other handicappers.

I could tell you that in race 1 horse X was blocked, steadied in the stretch, and could not find a way through.

And in race 2, horse Y was also blocked, steadied in the stretch, and could not find a way through.

And then if you watch the replays of the race, you might find that both of those statements are completely true, but in race 1 it cost horse X at least 5 lengths and the victory, while in race 2 it didn't matter at all.
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Old 04-22-2021, 04:15 PM   #49
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Part of the problem with the chart comments is that it is so hard to translate these observations into operative information for other handicappers.

I could tell you that in race 1 horse X was blocked, steadied in the stretch, and could not find a way through.

And in race 2, horse Y was also blocked, steadied in the stretch, and could not find a way through.

And then if you watch the replays of the race, you might find that both of those statements are completely true, but in race 1 it cost horse X at least 5 lengths and the victory, while in race 2 it didn't matter at all.
You are forgetting that the main part of the handicapping process is in grading the horse's performace so we could foretell what might occur in FUTURE races. In your race 2 above, the blocking and the steadying "didn't matter at all" as far as winning THAT race was concerned. But the interference that this horse was subjected to could have a story to tell going FORWARD.
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Old 04-22-2021, 04:56 PM   #50
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You are forgetting that the main part of the handicapping process is in grading the horse's performace so we could foretell what might occur in FUTURE races. In your race 2 above, the blocking and the steadying "didn't matter at all" as far as winning THAT race was concerned. But the interference that this horse was subjected to could have a story to tell going FORWARD.
That's true too.

But sometimes a horse can get into a whole bunch of trouble but wouldn't have run appreciably better without it. That's what I was getting at.
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Old 04-22-2021, 05:07 PM   #51
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That's true too.

But sometimes a horse can get into a whole bunch of trouble but wouldn't have run appreciably better without it. That's what I was getting at.
I think this impression is given because the "troubled" horse often returns to the track and runs worse in its next "trouble-free" start. No matter what the horseplayer's skill level is.. some aspects of this game are destined to remain a mystery...IMO.
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Old 04-23-2021, 11:54 AM   #52
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Since I play only one track during the winter, I watch lots of races I have no rooting interest in, and find that perspective more objective and illuminating.

Beyond individual trips, trends emerge that often defy conventional beliefs on race-flow. Tons of winners, for instance, come under hard rides, and even the whip, long before key rivals also present in the pan shot. Also, many, many winners travel rough, bobble, stayleft lead, short stride..etc. And don't EVEN get me started on how many winners overcome seemingly insurmountable "trouble."

Perhaps not surprisingly, most of these winners are well-bet, leading inevitably to the conclusion that current form and or innate superiority trump trips, flow, and visual observation.

As a situational handicapper obsessed with the particulars of today's spot, and one who augments past performances with a visually-gleaned impression of horses and race-flow, I do find most of this mildly disconcerting.
I like your analysis. This is where I find prices in the highest level races. When a horse has the problems you speak of. They are usually just better than the rest of the field. They will grade out a high number and move up. They are the hottest talk around. Then they will get bet. The problem becomes once they reach the ceiling of their competitive edge...... those tendencies cost them the race. You can get away with that crap up to a certain level.

I watch races use this all the time when the buzz horse is getting all the talk. The best horses run the best race and save their energy properly. Whether they are running in front or running them down. I love the bigger races to bet for this reason. Any flaw on the replay is gonna be a detriment in the future. Moving up. Many days I don’t even start betting until the end of the card .
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Old 04-23-2021, 01:04 PM   #53
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Many days I don’t even start betting until the end of the card .
"Not betting when I don't have some sort of advantage" is perhaps the greatest gambling strategy ever devised- and the hardest for gamblers, even smart ones, to adhere to.
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Old 04-23-2021, 01:09 PM   #54
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Horses that get a "trouble" comment often come back to do better (especially if it happened to be a first time starter), but once they draw a comment it seems like they often get over bet.

I think the best trouble is sometimes subtle gate trouble that doesn't draw a comment. Sometimes a very small disadvantage at the start translates into the horse falling way behind it's customary and desired position because of the way the other horses kind of close things off quickly. It's not like I find loads of winners that way, but every once in awhile I find a horse with a race that looks bad on paper but I feel comfortable throwing that race out.
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Old 04-23-2021, 02:19 PM   #55
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Horses that get a "trouble" comment often come back to do better (especially if it happened to be a first time starter), but once they draw a comment it seems like they often get over bet.

I think the best trouble is sometimes subtle gate trouble that doesn't draw a comment. Sometimes a very small disadvantage at the start translates into the horse falling way behind it's customary and desired position because of the way the other horses kind of close things off quickly. It's not like I find loads of winners that way, but every once in awhile I find a horse with a race that looks bad on paper but I feel comfortable throwing that race out.
My contribution to the trouble discussion would be big fields on the grass. Often times, the winner is the horse who gets a good trip on the far turn, and if all of the horses who have a decent shot get obstructed or have to wait on the far turn, the horse on the lead holds on.

It's not always dramatic. It's sometimes just sitting in 7th place at the 5/16th pole with horses on all sides, waiting to be able to go. And by the time the horse finally finds room to run, it's too late and another horse has gotten the jump or the horse on the lead has pulled away.

And that sort of trouble often doesn't get much of a descriptive comment the way the horse who dramatically steadies does.
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Old 04-29-2021, 02:10 PM   #56
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My views on "consistency" are a bit unorthodox and probably differ from yours, sir. But just to clarify my post, my impression isn't so much that the "beleagured" winners referenced are capitalizing on superior class as often as exploiting sharp form, that is transient, even momentary superiority.
Transient form? Indeed. I'm a big believer in watching races and replays, and making trip notes. And when I see "transient" form, that seems to defy the laws of nature and physics, I usually conclude the following:

The horse isn't just running on hay, oats and water.

When I play Hong Kong, Singapore and races from Japan, I NEVER see the "transient" factor - even from strong chalks that on paper lay over the field. The sharp changes in form are no where near the magnitude of what we see in racing in the U.S. And it's always nice to hear the broadcast team indicate any factors which may have led to an unexpected poor showing by a favorite - or, the "anti-transient" form, if you will.
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Old 04-29-2021, 04:27 PM   #57
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When I play Hong Kong, Singapore and races from Japan, I NEVER see the "transient" factor - even from strong chalks that on paper lay over the field.
I think some of what looks like transient form is actually related to trip and variations in how the surface is playing day to day. The same trip can impact different horses by different amounts and that variation can be even greater depending on how the track was playing that day.

If you notice, there's WAY less "transient form" on turf.

IMO, that's partly because the surfaces are a little more consistent day to day and the early and middle parts of turf races are less demanding that dirt races.
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Old 04-29-2021, 05:49 PM   #58
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Transient form? Indeed. I'm a big believer in watching races and replays, and making trip notes. And when I see "transient" form, that seems to defy the laws of nature and physics, I usually conclude the following:

The horse isn't just running on hay, oats and water.

When I play Hong Kong, Singapore and races from Japan, I NEVER see the "transient" factor - even from strong chalks that on paper lay over the field. The sharp changes in form are no where near the magnitude of what we see in racing in the U.S. And it's always nice to hear the broadcast team indicate any factors which may have led to an unexpected poor showing by a favorite - or, the "anti-transient" form, if you will.
Excellent Post!
Very Very True !
It's too bad the vast majority here can't relate or make those type of comparisons because they've limited themselves to only those things that apply to Stateside racing.
Their loss unfortunately!
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Old 04-30-2021, 10:50 PM   #59
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I think some of what looks like transient form is actually related to trip and variations in how the surface is playing day to day. The same trip can impact different horses by different amounts and that variation can be even greater depending on how the track was playing that day.

If you notice, there's WAY less "transient form" on turf.

IMO, that's partly because the surfaces are a little more consistent day to day and the early and middle parts of turf races are less demanding that dirt races.
I'll agree that post-race figures may indicate a form reversal or transient form that was due to bias or trip. And I'll also agree that races on the turf are more consistent over dirt.

But every now and then in North America I see a horse that's being pounded on the tote, gets into major trouble, runs against the bias or takes the scenic route, and performs WELL beyond what's indicated on paper.

If it's a younger horse, okay, you can argue that their form is more dynamic. But I see it with older claimers, with many starts, and well established class - and they will sometimes stick out in the PPs when the crush a field because the jock decided to air the field.

If the tail swishes, well, we know what that may be. But more often I think the tremendous performance is related to "better living through chemistry."
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