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Old 03-06-2021, 11:08 PM   #1
Nitro
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Wink HONG KONG – SHA TIN SUN-3/7/21

Good evening to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

I’ll be posting my pre-race selections for this very competitive race card that looks to offer some decent value.
There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 7 races on Turf and 3 on Dirt.

Post Time Race #1 – 12:00 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and using a unique static tote analysis have come up with my preliminary picks for each race. However, I’ll be only posting live selections this morning because the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these entries and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. A few of the races this morning look wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

For those of you that have the resources to bet more than $2 per race you might want to consider the following in terms of betting:
1) Win Dutching 3 entries means betting each of the 3 entries so that no matter which one wins the return is the same. (Wait until 4 mins to post for final odds calculations).
2) For Quinellas there are many options:
a) Using all 3 of the top Keys with all the others = 12 bets
b) Boxing all 6 selections = 15 bets
3) Triples there also many options:
a) Using any Key in the top position w/All others = 20 bets
b) Using all 3 Keys in the top position w/All others = 60 bets
c) Using Top 4 selections in the top position w/All others = 80 bets
d) Boxing all 6 selections = 120 bets
(Warning: The odds of the selected entries @ 7 mins to post should determine playability by comparing the combined value of each group of 3 that may complete the triple with the amount to be bet).

Good Luck if you’re playing!
.
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Old 03-06-2021, 11:54 PM   #2
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Live Video:
https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/...=livestreaming

Preliminary Selections for ALL 10 races:

R#1-1200M C5 (6F)D…........2-1-5 W/ 4-10-6

R#2-1200M C4 (6F)D………....1-8-3 W/ 2-11-5

R#3–1000M C2 (6F)T…………..5-6-1 W/ 8-3

R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T…………..4-6-7 W/ 11-5-13

R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T………....1-4-8 W/ 2-5-3

R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T……….…2-5-8 W/ 1-3-13

R#7– 1200M C3 (6F)T……….…6-10-12 W/ 9-2-3

R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)D…….…...5-4-6 W/ 7-10-3

R#9- 1600M C3 (8F)T………....1-3-10 W/ 6-8-7
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Old 03-07-2021, 12:08 AM   #3
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R#1-1200M C5 (6F)D…..........2-1-5 W/ 4-10-6
7-1-5-3– Dutch LOSS 54% Profit Margin - PLAYED / No action on the Big LS Winner #7
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Old 03-07-2021, 12:26 AM   #4
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UPDATE---R#2-1200M C4 (6F)D…..3-8-11 W/ 1-5-12
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Old 03-07-2021, 12:29 AM   #5
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Dirt speed bias on off tracks here at Sha Tin...
lets try a 4/8/11 w 1 3 4 5 6 8 11 w 1 3 4 5 6 8 11
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Old 03-07-2021, 12:33 AM   #6
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Dirt speed bias on off tracks here at Sha Tin...
lets try a 4/8/11 w 1 3 4 5 6 8 11 w 1 3 4 5 6 8 11

Thought there was a chance til that last furlong
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Old 03-07-2021, 12:38 AM   #7
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UPDATE---R#2-1200M C4 (6F)D…..3-8-11 W/ 1-5-12
3-8-1-12– Dutch WIN 105% Profit Margin - PLAYED / $39.70 Quinella & $267.40 Triple BX & ($6,508.00 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!
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Old 03-07-2021, 12:56 AM   #8
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UPDATE---R#3–1000M C2 (6F)T……5-6-1 W/ 8-4
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Old 03-07-2021, 01:10 AM   #9
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UPDATE---R#3–1000M C2 (6F)T……5-6-1 W/ 8-4
5-1-8-6 – Dutch WIN 25% Profit Margin - PASSED / $6.60 Quinella & $63.20 Triple BX & ($455.20 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!
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Old 03-07-2021, 01:28 AM   #10
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UPDATE---R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T….7-4-6 W/ 11-2-5
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Old 03-07-2021, 01:38 AM   #11
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UPDATE---R#4- 1400M C4 (7F)T….7-4-6 W/ 11-2-5
1-9-13-4– Dutch LOSS 176% Profit Margin - PLAYED / Some very late action on the Winner #1 & Placer #9
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Old 03-07-2021, 01:57 AM   #12
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UPDATE---R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T……1-4-2 W/ 8-9-3
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Old 03-07-2021, 02:11 AM   #13
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UPDATE---R#5- 1200M C4 (6F)T……1-4-2 W/ 8-9-3
4-1-2-8 – Dutch WIN 37% Profit Margin - PASSED / $14.10 Quinella & $113.40 Triple BX & ($602.00 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!
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Old 03-07-2021, 02:28 AM   #14
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UPDATE---R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T……2-8-5 W/ 13-1-3
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Old 03-07-2021, 02:46 AM   #15
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UPDATE---R#6- 1400M C4 (7F)T……2-8-5 W/ 13-1-3
2-1-13-3– Dutch WIN 117% Profit Margin - PLAYED / $100.70 Quinella & $752.80 Triple BX & ($4,771.20 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!
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