Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 3 votes, 5.00 average.
Old 11-07-2021, 01:12 PM   #106
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
If I had gotten out of bed earlier...was a nice early pick-3 in the Trainer Angles Report:

$2 Pick-3 (2/1/1) Paid $180.50 (3OF3)


...missed betting it
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 11-07-2021, 02:23 PM   #107
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Wow...Woodbine has 5 races with a purse 100K or more, and only 1 of them is a stakes race, while 2 are MSW races.
Didn't know Canada had that much expendable money.

As far as Maiden 2nd Time Starters go...take your pick


5th MORE HARDER 20-1
5TH WALSINGHAM 20-1 ---

6th BODY OF LAW 20-1
6TH MARDENE 20-1
6TH LISA MARIE 8-1

Think I'll try a 5th race exacta box /

..and a 6th race box of / /

While I'm there may as well bet those in a , -,, Double

Good luck

-NCG
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 11-07-2021, 09:32 PM   #108
CheckMark
 
CheckMark's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,686
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Wow...Woodbine has 5 races with a purse 100K or more, and only 1 of them is a stakes race, while 2 are MSW races.
Didn't know Canada had that much expendable money.
Well when we rake in huge handles like Woodbine you got to give back any way they can and that is upping the purses just like Oaklawn has done with their own

I have loved what Woodbine has done as a whole with racing and giving back to the community and hope that they can continue to have success down the road with their new plans for hotel/casino/entertainment area at Woodbine

Now: any reservations at the Woodbine Hotel yet?
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
CheckMark is offline  
Old 11-08-2021, 09:23 AM   #109
geroge.burns99
Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Wow...Woodbine has 5 races with a purse 100K or more, and only 1 of them is a stakes race, while 2 are MSW races.
Didn't know Canada had that much expendable money.

As far as Maiden 2nd Time Starters go...take your pick


5th MORE HARDER 20-1
5TH WALSINGHAM 20-1 ---

6th BODY OF LAW 20-1
6TH MARDENE 20-1
6TH LISA MARIE 8-1

Think I'll try a 5th race exacta box /

..and a 6th race box of / /

While I'm there may as well bet those in a , -,, Double

Good luck

-NCG
Thats Cannadian currency....

$100,000 Canadian = $4.57 USA

mike
geroge.burns99 is offline  
Old 11-08-2021, 11:00 AM   #110
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99 View Post
Thats Cannadian currency....

$100,000 Canadian = $4.57 USA

mike
lol...so the Canadian Dollar is like the "Bolivar" in Venezuela--a million Bolivars is like, a buck and a half- American.

(to our fine neighbors to the north--remember it was geroge.burns who insulted you, not me )
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 11-08-2021, 11:11 AM   #111
geroge.burns99
Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
lol...so the Canadian Dollar is like the "Bolivar" in Venezuela--a million Bolivars is like, a buck and a half- American.

(to our fine neighbors to the north--remember it was geroge.burns who insulted you, not me )
Yep...NoBallsGreg

PS- I'll be all set in Feb when I turn 65 and this fine country will make sure I'm taken care of till I die...

Last edited by geroge.burns99; 11-08-2021 at 11:13 AM.
geroge.burns99 is offline  
Old 11-08-2021, 12:07 PM   #112
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
EXOTIC BETS! TIP SHEET 11-08

We haven't seen an Exotic Bets Tipsheet in a while:



Good Luck,

-NCG
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 11-10-2021, 07:04 PM   #113
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 11-10-2021, 10:30 PM   #114
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Greg I took all your 24 horses and used my bet sizes for all (excluding favorites) and returned $1.39 on the dollar. $2.918/$2.098, winning but 3 of 8 races.

Attached Images
File Type: gif GREG 11-10-2021.GIF (33.0 KB, 29 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline  
Old 11-11-2021, 11:56 AM   #115
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Greg I took all your 24 horses and used my bet sizes for all (excluding favorites) and returned $1.39 on the dollar. $2.918/$2.098, winning but 3 of 8 races.
This is something I've been thinking about, and fooling around with for quite a while. This Best-Five Contender list contains the winner in 2 of 3 races--usually 3 to 6 winners per day on avg.
My thought was, all I need to do is handicap (by whatever means is most effective) just THOSE 3 ONLY.

Your particular method, to be honest--is over my head. I've tried mechanical ratings, power ratings, etc...on just the 3 contenders, and not done very well at all. Hitting 50% of the winners...which would be outstanding in my opinion, drops your hit rate down to 1 out of 3 (mathematically, that's probably being too generous).
It's fun to attempt projects like this one...and who knows--it could lead to a profitable method, or obscure winning subset.
Here's today's Finger Lakes Contenders:


NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 11-11-2021, 12:05 PM   #116
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Lets try this:


Contenders selected by "Top Demon Power" and 4-1 ML:

2nd GATEWAY GUARDIAN 4-1
3RD SMOKIN' ALONE 8-1
5TH MULIMBIMBY 5-1
6TH WHAT'S MY CATEGORY 8-1


Good luck,

-NCG
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 11-11-2021, 05:07 PM   #117
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Think I tried to be a little too cute, there. Did some back-checking...DEMON POWER is not that effective at FLX. Basic fundamental handicapping seems to work best here.

This is simply the #1 selections from Best-Five Consensus. Click once and you'll get the list of top picks on your screen, like this:






beat the heck out of Demon Power anyway

ps: very cool Veteran's Day poster on your front page, Mike

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 11-11-2021 at 05:09 PM.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 11-11-2021, 06:10 PM   #118
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
demon power

don't sell Demon Power short yet,


Used top demon power horse at Delta yesterday
1st ran 2nd
2nd WON $19.40
3rd Won $4.60
4th ran 2nd at 10/1 paid $10 to place
5th out
6th out - wouldn’t bet it anyway .60 on a dollar
7th Won $7.20
8th out
9th out
green80 is offline  
Old 11-11-2021, 08:42 PM   #119
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Demon Power can be deadly at certain tracks...apparently FLX isn't one of them.

A nice spot-play with Demon Power is look for the top rated horse--then check his TMPACE rating. If he's dominant on TMPACE as well--you got a bet. Just be sure MOST of the entries have a TMPACE rating.

At Aqueduct today:

1ST CAUMSETT 3-1 $11.40 TOP DEMON--+35 TMPACE
3RD TASS 4-1 $5.30 TOP DEMON-- +29 TMPACE
5TH GHOST GIANT 8-1 2ND TOP DEMON-- +8 TMPACE


Even though Ghost Giant wasn't "dominant" on TMPACE, at 8-1 ML it was worth a bet. He missed the win by a neck.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 11-12-2021, 11:06 AM   #120
wolsons
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: NYC
Posts: 425
food for thought

Interesting idea, Greg - checked all tracks yesterday (after scratches), criteria was 1) top DM Power by 1 full point or more, and 2) top TMPace by 10 points or more:

AQU 1) #6 11.40
3) #9 5.30
FLX 7) #7 6.00
GPX 5) #2 -
8) #9 -
IND 1) #1 -
3) #10 -
LRL 1) #4 7.00
RPX 1) #2 9.80
4) #5 6.20
5) #2 -
TUP 2) #3 -
WOX 2) #2 -
3) #4 3.00
4) #2 6.80

Obviously a very limited test, but not too shabby
wolsons is offline  
Closed Thread




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:15 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.