Trakus Delta - When does it get your attention?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Yup.
It can get complex fast.
But, was there a dominant factor that most affected the race??

I've always looked at pace, ground loss, and bias, but I used to try to quantify each component individually and then adjust my thinking on each horse.

Now I still spend my time trying to understand the quality of the field (quality of the speeds, quality of the closers, how deep was the field etc..) and then look at the charts and replays to understand the race flow in a more consolidated sense.

It's sort of a combination of what I always did qualitatively with what "the_fat_man" used to advocate with his chart tool trip analysis. I believe that more consolidated approach is easier and probably more accurate.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I've always looked at pace, ground loss, and bias, but I used to try to quantify each component individually and then adjust my thinking on each horse.

Now I still spend my time trying to understand the quality of the field (quality of the speeds, quality of the closers, how deep was the field etc..) and then look at the charts and replays to understand the race flow in a more consolidated sense.

It's sort of a combination of what I always did qualitatively with what "the_fat_man" used to advocate with his chart tool trip analysis. I believe that more consolidated approach is easier and probably more accurate.

very important to know the quality of the field

If the Win/Place/Show horses came from 10 lengths back, it's not a true 'Pace Collapse' (in my opinion) if those were the 3 top quality horses.

We want situations where we can say: "hey! upgrade Oxbow, Palace Malice, and Golden Cents -because they ran so much better than their literal performance, that they are worth betting in the future".

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Cratos

No, it is not "Here we go" it is you don't know what you talking about.

However I will defer to you as administrator of this forum.

Nothing to defer to...

I just can't believe you post some of the awfully arrogant stuff that you do, then complain when people come back at you for it...

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Nothing to defer to...

I just can't believe you post some of the awfully arrogant stuff that you do, then complain when people come back at you for it...

There is nothing arrogant in my posts; it is your unwillingness to accept the facts that contradicts some long held beliefs in horse racing.

For instance, the track surface is fast or slow which it is not (see Dr. Peterson position paper on race track surfaces); it is resistance, speed cannot be determine without distance and pace is determined by displacement, and the major natural obstacle to a horse’s motion is air resistance.

Science is science and if you don't have the acumen to deal with it then don't try and BS your way with nonsensical rhetoric.

However this is your website or least you are the administrator which gives you the right to publish or delete any post you choose whether its content is right or wrong.

On the contrary, I am not intimidated and will not be intimidated because I come here voluntarily under my own free will and I have always respected the TOS of this website.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Cratos

There is nothing arrogant in my posts

On the contrary, I am not intimidated and will not be intimidated because I come here voluntarily under my own free will and I have always respected the TOS of this website.

Cratos, I know how gifted you are. One can see that you've been handicapping and betting horses for decades. You don't hesitate to call out others who do not handicap a horse race in the same manner that you do. However, they are all wrong.

You believe, totally, that your way is the only way to succeed in this game. You may not be violating the TOS, according to how you read them. But, and this is coming from years of observation, and from the heart, too, because I feel you're probably a really nice guy away from this website. So, here it goes... your social skills are horrible!! You have none.

In short, you do not know how to disagree with anyone without being condescendingly adamant that you know more than anyone online about handicapping and everyone else is clueless because you're an engineer. Most, Cratos, don't give squat what you do, or did, for a living. Please, stop throwing that around. Nobody cares if you're Tesla, Gates, A.Graham Bell, or whoever.

And you're worse since your long hospital stay, just weeks ago. If anything, I'd feel like I needed to try harder to communicate more kindly to others--given how sick you indicated you were. You coulda died, Cratos. But you didn't. Think about it.

I apologize in advance as I know I'm irritating you. (I can handle that as I figure..it'll pass.) You have got to be better in person or no woman on earth would live with you...and your children woulda married losers just to get away from you...

[rastajenk]

Not only all that, but he seems to have no appreciation for the fun of the game. Without that, not much else matters.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Post Time: 1:10

Track Condition: R=V/I

[rastajenk]

Track Condition: R=V/I People would still gripe about it. "Who sets the R value at this place, he must be an idiot!" someone would say. I don't think that science is settled.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Track Condition: R=V/I People would still gripe about it. "Who sets the R value at this place, he must be an idiot!" someone would say. I don't think that science is settled.

I was hoping to elicit a complaint that I used the wrong formula for the wrong sort of resistance and take the heat off of CJ. Figured it worked on many levels.

[woodbinepmi]

Originally Posted by Grits

Cratos, I know how gifted you are. One can see that you've been handicapping and betting horses for decades. You don't hesitate to call out others who do not handicap a horse race in the same manner that you do. However, they are all wrong.

You believe, totally, that your way is the only way to succeed in this game. You may not be violating the TOS, according to how you read them. But, and this is coming from years of observation, and from the heart, too, because I feel you're probably a really nice guy away from this website. So, here it goes... your social skills are horrible!! You have none.

In short, you do not know how to disagree with anyone without being condescendingly adamant that you know more than anyone online about handicapping and everyone else is clueless because you're an engineer. Most, Cratos, don't give squat what you do, or did, for a living. Please, stop throwing that around. Nobody cares if you're Tesla, Gates, A.Graham Bell, or whoever.

And you're worse since your long hospital stay, just weeks ago. If anything, I'd feel like I needed to try harder to communicate more kindly to others--given how sick you indicated you were. You coulda died, Cratos. But you didn't. Think about it.

I apologize in advance as I know I'm irritating you. (I can handle that as I figure..it'll pass.) You have got to be better in person or no woman on earth would live with you...and your children woulda married losers just to get away from you...

God help you Grits, the wrath will be upon you soon. Get ready for your daily physics class.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Grits

Cratos, I know how gifted you are. One can see that you've been handicapping and betting horses for decades. You don't hesitate to call out others who do not handicap a horse race in the same manner that you do. However, they are all wrong.

You believe, totally, that your way is the only way to succeed in this game. You may not be violating the TOS, according to how you read them. But, and this is coming from years of observation, and from the heart, too, because I feel you're probably a really nice guy away from this website. So, here it goes... your social skills are horrible!! You have none.

In short, you do not know how to disagree with anyone without being condescendingly adamant that you know more than anyone online about handicapping and everyone else is clueless because you're an engineer. Most, Cratos, don't give squat what you do, or did, for a living. Please, stop throwing that around. Nobody cares if you're Tesla, Gates, A.Graham Bell, or whoever.

And you're worse since your long hospital stay, just weeks ago. If anything, I'd feel like I needed to try harder to communicate more kindly to others--given how sick you indicated you were. You coulda died, Cratos. But you didn't. Think about it.

I apologize in advance as I know I'm irritating you. (I can handle that as I figure..it'll pass.) You have got to be better in person or no woman on earth would live with you...and your children woulda married losers just to get away from you...

You are absolutely correct, I could have died during my hospital stay (which I incorrectly stated initially as 17 days, but it really was 33 days with the additional16 days being in an induced coma).

I wholly disagree with your assessment of me, but I wholly support emphatically your right to express it.

Horserace handicapping has yet to pivot to today’s “world of quantitative analysis.” It is still puddling along with concepts from handicapping books that are primarily autobiographical rehashes of the authors’ experiences.

Whether you like it or believe it (and you can independently verify it at your local college or university), horse race handicapping is a science and math based methodology using statistical data.

There are or have been some very astute posters on this forum. Namely, Magister Ludi who in my opinion submit brilliant posts, TrifectaMike who brought Bayesian statistics to this forum in an understandable way, the poster who introduced the forum to the TDA methodology, and Raybo who pushes the MS Excel application to its fullest.

Also I realize that there many more posters (including yourself) who make diligent and thoughtful contributions to this forum.

Again, while I disagree with your assessment of me, I support your right to make it; I believe in freedom of speech.

Incidentally, I have a beautiful and intelligent wife and 3 great kids who are making significant strides in their chosen careers.

[Tom]

There is one currency used for credibility in racing. Winners.
Methodology counts for nothing.

Thinking your way is the only way is a badge of ignorance.

While you talk it, CJ walks it.

[Grits]

Cratos, I hope you continue to recover well from your health crisis. I understand your feelings about freedom of speech, however, even the least educated, maybe the least successful, as well, often have a grasp on how to talk with others. Somewhere along the way your grasp has slipped, badly. Showing, writing, with respect towards others isn't beyond anyone's reach.

I went to Trifecta Mike's post cache (as you mentioned him in particular) and one of the first posts I read was one of your own, along with a fine one by Jeff P. You wrote these words to this man on December 15, 2014:

Mike, your posts to me has been challenging and thought provoking, but never dull and uninteresting.

Therefore I hope you reconsider your decision to stop posting on the forum because I believe that the forum's thoroughbred handicapping discussion needs input from a variety of sources (i.e., the GED to the PhD).

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...92#post1750492

I'm seen as forum police around here. It's not very flattering to be called such, but I don't really care. I believe how we treat others will say far more about us than how we handicap a horse race will ever say.

Enjoy the holiday weekend.

[raybo]

I'm no expert on anything, so take this as you like.

As many of the threads like this one go, there are a variety of talking points, and most of those points are necessarily biased towards their authors' education and experience, their chosen methods, and subject to their innate limitations.

I am of the firm belief that horse race handicapping and wagering can be a successful endeavor, regardless of a player's education and experience, their chosen methods and their innate limitations.

I am, therefore, of the firm belief that there is no one way to be successful in horse race handicapping and wagering. Thinking there is, is a form of insanity, if there ever was one. That being said, attempting to argue, or demean, someone for their chosen methods, without having the necessary education and experience in those methods, could also be considered a form of insanity, or at least a perverse form of self induced entertainment.

Particular to this thread, although it is certainly not restricted to this thread, there are several members here who immediately jump into any thread in which Cratos posts, with the intense desire to discredit his methods, mainly his advanced usage of physics. While I can see why some tire of his repeated postulations on the subject of his methodologies, what tires me even more is the postings by others who seem adamant of arguing and demeaning him. Of course, Cratos doesn't need me to take up for him, he is certainly capable of diverting any such negative attempts successfully, himself. But, I would be the last one to attempt to argue his specific knowledge and methods. I know just about enough physics to recognize the value in such an approach.

Carry on!

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Grits

I'm seen as forum police around here. It's not very flattering to be called such, but I don't really care. I believe how we treat others will say far more about us than how we handicap a horse race will ever say.

Enjoy the holiday weekend.

The issue, Grits, is that Trifecta Mike is one of the few people Cratos respects. He doesn't respect us (he thinks we're idiots, though he'd recast that in some pseudo-scientific malarkey about "uneducated masses" and physics) so he talks to us like we're children. I appreciate your efforts, but it's unlikely he'll suddenly start talking to like people he respects. As to the larger point of whether someone who spent a month in the hospital, most of it in a coma, has as his goal talking down to strangers on a horse racing forum....well, a psychiatrist would have a better chance with that one, and my degree is still in the mail,.