Race of the day analysis

[Kevroc]

Hello, I give a breakdown everyday of one race for another message board and I would like to share my thoughts with this community in the name of feedback and discussion.

I hope you all don't mind and enjoy talking horses with me.

SARATOGA Race 3 *July 26th*

EShipman $70k Statebred 3yo & up 9f Conventional Dirt

Mighty Morris- John Kimmel speedster draws the rail. Tired first off the layoff in the Skipaway at Monmouth versus open company and now is back in with state breds where he had finished in the exacta in five straight races! Ruffino and Giant Moon should keep him to task though. He fits in here for sure and will take his speed as far as he can go. RocLine 5:1

Ruffino- Another part of the pace scenario, Bond is 32% with horses coming off such a layoff. This 7yo is very lightly raced, he only has 15 lifetime starts. Maragh was on board for 5 of his 8 lifetime wins. Expect a keen start. RocLine 9:1

Groomedforvictory- This Barclay Tagg runner is accustomed to running a bit shorter but a son of Victory Gallop, 9f shouldn't be an issue. Class however, is a bit of an issue to me. He has been facing almost exclusively statebred allowance types while the others have been battling in the statebred handicaps and stakes races. Finished less than a length behind Giant Moon two back but, I don't envision him improving enough to best this field. His figures over this oval have also left a lot to be desired. RocLine 12:1

Slevin- This 4yo youngster has some class questions as well. The effort that catches the eye is the 2nd place 93 beyer he posted here at Saratoga in the Albany going 9f. It was his best effort and one that entices you to use him but, that race had a torrid pace. This one will no doubt be quick but, a :46 flat half mile? I don't think so. Can surely improve but, wins without me. RocLine 13:1

Giant Moon- Dick Schosberg's 5yo Giants Causeway horse is an impressive 7 for 14 lifetime. He rocked a sweet 95 beyer in winning the GIII Excelsior at Aqueduct back in April. This will be his first try at the Spa but, he is training beautifully and with the speed to his inside, Prado can sit just off of them and pounce down the stretch. I like his chances today. RocLine 3:1

Naughty New Yorker- 8yo son of Quiet American comes in off two troubled trips. This $1M earner is a stretch runner and the pace sets up very nicely for him. He is also 3 for 7 at the Spa with two 2nds. The pace style and horse for course angles make him a consideration at a price. RocLine 7:1

Ichabad Crane- Leparoux gets the leg up on this fresh Graham Motion 5yo. He spent his last two trips chasing Mighty Morris and tiring. He is now freshened and check these numbers out.. each time he was freshened, his beyers improved 9pts, 7pts and 8pts. So, we know he fires fresh. He is 2 for 4 at the distance and three and four back he ran figs of 104 and 97 over the inner track at Aqueduct which I've always maintained plays like the Spa surface. We know he was well meant, as he ran in both the 2008 Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Maybe he is maturing into a capable stakes running older horse. RocLine 7:2

A note about the RocLine. I use Formulator on the DRF website to handicap the races and I toggle off the morning line, so I have no idea where the morning line oddsmaker put these horses. So, sometimes I may look smart and other times I will look foolish but, I strongly recommend attempting to make your own lines and do not be upset if your lines are far different from the m/l oddsmakers line. This is how we find value in the races.

I think I am going to attack the exacta pools in this race but, I need to see the tote board. I'm fairly confident in the lines that I set above and I think Giant Moon and Icabad Crane are the major players to build around, using Mighty Morris and Naughty New Yorker as pace players that can get involved.

[PhantomOnTour]

Icabad Crane is my key in the Shipman. Is that a lifetime top Beyer off the last 3 layoffs? A 90 then 95 then 97...anything above that 97 should win it. Giant Moon is an obvious concern and Naughty New Yorker loves the Spa, but better use him underneath only.

[Kevroc]

The 97 was first off 6mo layoff and the 104 is a lifetime high a month later. (second off bench)

[lefthandlow]

I'm taking a stand against the CRANE .
I'm using the horses out of the 6/13 race
that haynesfield came backto win out of
which was a grade 2 BTW . So for my money
it's 3 and 5 boxed and press the 3 over
the 1and 5. and box the 1 3 5 .
But what do i know..haven't posted in a long time

[Pcon04]

good review Kevroc!!

[netbet]

Kevroc,

Nice analysis. Look forward to more from you.

Let me know what other site you post to.

I'll be playing GROOMEDFORVICTORY if I can get a bet in on Twinspires.com (I am unable to login at the moment).

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by Kevroc

The 97 was first off 6mo layoff and the 104 is a lifetime high a month later. (second off bench)

Yes. He has run faster in suqsequent races, but at the time he ran those figs they were lifetime tops. Seen? The fact that he has surpassed those numbers does not change the fact that when he ran them they were his best to date. Good Lord.

[Kevroc]

Thanks for the feedback guys! I was way off base on Groomedforvictory as he was right in the blanket there at the end and his finish behind Giant Moon the last time they hooked up was worthy of giving him more respect than I did with my 12:1 line. Oh yes Phantom, I wasn't correcting you, I was stating the print. I misunderstood your syntax. I thought you may not have had a form handy and were asking me. Ooops!

The finish was chalky with my top two selections finishing 1-2. With no value in the win pool, I dipped into the exactas and played $140 worth of combinations using Giant Moon and Crane on top. I had the winning number 30x for a $180 return. All in all not a very sound wager.

I'll be back in about eight or nine hours with our race of the day for tuesday. Again, thanks for any and all feedback both positive and negative. Any comment is better than crickets! Good luck at the windows. (netbet, I'll pm you the name of the other site, I moderate there and don't want to look like a shill.. although it is NOT a racing site, just a racing thread.)

[Kevroc]

Race of the day Presque Isle Downs Race 7 *July 27th* 8pm EST

The $100k Windward Stakes for fillies and mares 3yo & up 1mile Synth

Meadow Saffron- A question mark down on the rail. This one has plenty speed but, has run almost exclusively on grass. This is her first time on the synthetic and she drilled 4f on the KEE surface in :47 flat. She will be part of the pace for sure. RocLine 24:1

West Court- Chris Clement 4yo Gone West filly is two for two on the synthetic but, her beyer figs are quite poor. Clement is known for his turf prowess but, this one just couldnt win on it. She is still eligible for N2X and I think this spot is reaching a bit. RocLine 45:1

Little B Rosson- Claimed for $40k four starts back, she has been sprinting against allowance types here at the Isle. She has hit the board in 14 of 20 lifetime starts over this course with 7 wins. I like her stalking style but, I'm a bit concerned about wheeling right back in 11 days. RocLine 13:1

Informed Decision- Well well well. A queen against serfs, this 5yo daughter of Monarchos is 12 for 17 lifetime with $1.9M in earnings, a full $1.2M more than the next rival. Sheppard brings her in second off the layoff banging steady 90 and above beyers with a few 100's sprinkled in. She has hit the board in each of her last 14 starts and is coming out of exclusively graded stakes company. She is a multiple GI winner and Leparoux is in for the ride. Has run a 95 on her lone try at this track and that was going shorter, she won that stake going away. The cherry on top is the weight. She has never come to the races this light ever in her career. She is carrying 112lbs. She is accustomed to lugging 124 around the track. The question is by how many lengths does she score? RocLine 1:1

Si Si Mon Amie- Another turf runner, the synthetic will be a question for this 6yo mare. She has run in quite a few sprint races which makes me think she'll be vying for the early lead. Also, her morning tune-ups have been short quick ones, another clue that her game is speed. The 3f AP synth work was quite boring and I just can't make a solid case for her. RocLine 33:1

Miss Blakely- 4yo Smart Strike filly has run mostly turf races and comes in off back to back turf 90's going a route of ground. A longshot for 3rd position at best. RocLine 40:1

Love That Dance- A complete speedball, this 4yo Ben Perkins filly is coming out of two New Jersey bred stakes races that kicked off her 4yo season. She was soundly beaten in the sprint race versus very good state breds but, then ran a decent 81 figure in the route handicap, setting the pace and holding 2nd. The trouble here is she will lose ground going into that first turn and there are at least two legitimate speedsters to her inside. She does not look like the type that can rate and as much as I respect Ben Perkins, I do not like her at all in this spot. RocLine 28:1

Cure For Sale- Oh look, another turf runner with some early zip! Hasn't won a race since last August on soft Arlington grass and the barn is 0 for 16 in stakes races. However, a few things got my attention. Six days ago, she drilled a half mile in :47.2 breezing over the synthetic, the best of 51 that morning and seven days before that had a nice 5f work to build some bottom. She ran three straight mid-80's figures in GII races on the turf down at Tampa and most important of all, in her races last summer she proved that she can rate off the pace. She is a 6yo with plenty experience and although I don't think she can beat Informed Decision, I surely think she can finish in the trifecta at a price. RocLine 10:1

Unforgotten- Second off the bench for this Dallas Stewart 6yo mare. She is a seconditis type that has 5 wins and 12 places in 35 starts. However, she has run 2nd to Informed Decision going 7f on the synth in a GIII at Arlington, scoring a 91 fig in the process and has hit the board in 8 of 9 lifetime tries on the waxy fibers. A must use in the trifectas. RocLine 20:1

Double Espresso- Sprinting type is a little on the cheap side but, comes in fresh for 30% Thomas Amoss. A lightly raced 4yo daughter of Medaglia D'oro, she can get the distance (she broke the N1X condition going 8.5f). Stuck outside into the first turn, she will be running about 8.5f when its said and done. Use underneath. RocLine 22:1

Hooh Why- A bit of an enigma, you don't know what kind of race you are going to get out of this young filly. She has amassed an impressive $600k in only 19 starts by taking down the GI Ashland at Keeneland and finishing 3rd in the SantaAnitaOaks, both as a 3yo. She is coming off her first win as a 4yo which was going a mile over this oval in a money restricted allowance burying a small field of 6 in wire fashion with slow fractions, only scoring a 77 figure and ran a 101 three back at Arlington, running 2nd in a field of four. Also, a 4% barn. I can't envision a win but, this girl is tricky to figure and can get in the trifecta. Note she has hit the board in 14 of 16 tries over the synth. RocLine 9:1

I will most likely be playing trifectas keying Informed Decision on top. There is no use trying to beat her, she is a beast. The exacta pools will probably be chalky as well. If we catch the right prices underneath in the trifecta pool, we may take an even money favorite and turn her into a 3:1 shot.

[netbet]

Kevrock,

I just opened the Formulator file for this race and it has "SCR" for 1,2,5,6,7,9 is this correct? Looks like they are down to a field of 5 but with INFORMED DECISION in the race....looks like the battle will be for second.

DRF ROTD

[Kevroc]

Originally Posted by netbet

Kevrock,

I just opened the Formulator file for this race and it has "SCR" for 1,2,5,6,7,9 is this correct? Looks like they are down to a field of 5 but with INFORMED DECISION in the race....looks like the battle will be for second.

DRF ROTD

Ugh, there goes that race!

[BleedsDodgerBlue]

I happened to have handicapped both of these races you posted and I think your analysis is fantastic and extremely insightful.
As for Ben Perkins, Jr. . . . he has occasionally shipped to Presque and I've won big on his shippers. When Monmouth is open, you have to wonder why he ever ships a horse anywhere, and they are usually good plays. When Monmouth is closed, of course, it is a different story.
BTW, his Vengeful Wildcat, who is 2 for 2, looks like a great horse - - could end up being his best horse ever.

Please keep posting the analysis of the daily racing form race of the day.

THANKS!

BleedsDodgerBlue

[Kevroc]

Originally Posted by BleedsDodgerBlue

I happened to have handicapped both of these races you posted and I think your analysis is fantastic and extremely insightful.
As for Ben Perkins, Jr. . . . he has occasionally shipped to Presque and I've won big on his shippers. When Monmouth is open, you have to wonder why he ever ships a horse anywhere, and they are usually good plays. When Monmouth is closed, of course, it is a different story.
BTW, his Vengeful Wildcat, who is 2 for 2, looks like a great horse - - could end up being his best horse ever.

Please keep posting the analysis of the daily racing form race of the day.

THANKS!

BleedsDodgerBlue

Thanks so much for the kind words. Now watch as tomorrow's race of the day I mark an even money favorite as 30:1 and he wins for fun, lol.

I remember many nights of going out the the Meadowlands when they were running flats and singling Perkins horses in pick threes, haven't been out there in ages but, used to love hanging out by the clubhouse bar. Myself and two other track buddies used to pull weekend triple headers.. The big M on friday night, aqueduct or belmont saturday day and back to the big M saturday night. Bay Ridge brooklyn late saturday night (if we hit). R and R on sundays! Good times.

[Kevroc]

Race of the day.. DEL MAR Race 7 *July 28th*

The $75k Wickerr Stakes for 3yo & up non winners up a sweepstakes of $50k at a mile or over since May 1st. Run at 1mile over the turf. 8pm EST

Blue Chagall- Julio Canani takes the blinkers off this 5yo gelding. His last win was back in October at Santa Anita going a mile in the Lure Stakes. He has run a couple of decent races over this course and has been a bit overmatched recently due to aggressive entry choices by Canani, putting him over his head in graded stakes company. He has run nothing better than an 89 figure as a 5yo and I do not think those type of numbers get it done today. RocLine 13;1

Aggie Engineer- First time over the course for this Paddy Gallagher speedball. He is winless on the grass in two tries. Both of those were 90 figures, the first one was going 10f in a GII at Santa Anita were he drilled a half in :48.2 and led at the next to last call and the latest turf effort was his last race, a mile over the Hollywood course nailing 6f in 1:11.4 and getting passed by The Usual Q.T. and Dakota Phone. A real serious threat to take them all the way today. RocLine 5:1

Quindici Man- 4yo gray son of Came Home saddled by Craig Lewis, this guy is a one-run closer. He is 1 for 4 on the grass with his last attempt over the lawn a winning one at Turf Paradise back in November going a mile. He had a :46 flat half mile to run at and just got up. He is coming out of graded stake synthetic routes and has some decent figures in them but, they are just shipping this guy all over the place looking for a score and Nakatani will be the 10th different rider in the last 10 starts. There is no consistency with this guy and I can't back him with any confidence. RocLine 12:1

A Lil Dumaani- 5yo sprinter coming out of the hot O'Neill barn. This is his second race off the layoff and stretching out for the first time. I'd rate him a much better chance if there was a little less speed in here. Rosario comes off in favor of the Ben Cecil horse. An outside chance to steal but, one to tab for later. RocLine 11:1

Noble Court- SCRATCHED

Gallant Son- Fresh off a 3 month break, this 4yo for the 20% Lucarelli barn is coming off back to back turf route 100 beyers in graded stakes company. Finsihed just 2 lengths behind Victor's Cry in the GI Shoemaker Mile and won the GIII Inglewood Handicap. He has run well fresh before and is a stalking type that should get good pace to run at. Fits very nicely in this spot with Mike Smith aboard. RocLine 3:1

Red Door Drive- 5yo Bob Baffert horse has plenty of bottom. He has been on or near the pace in races ranging from 8 to 10f. However, only 1 for 12 on the grass and doesn't seem to get the usual Baffert steam at the windows. This guy is a must on your exotic tickets. His last two beyer figs were good enough to consider for the win spot but, i'm leaning towards 2nd or 3rd. RocLine 9:1

Riviera Cocktail- Drysdale and Bejarano team up on this 4yo son of Giant's Causeway. He is a deep closer whose last victory was the only other race under Raffy. He is coming off back to back turf scores and his figs have been steadily climbing. I'm a sucker for these lightly raced horses and the connections are rock solid. A real shot at nailing them on the money. RocLine 4:1

Ferneley- 6yo Ben Cecil runner is the elderstatesman in here and has earned more than double any of the others in here. Super classy, he is coming out of 3 straight GI races and a GII. The Del Mar Mile, The Woodbine Mile, The BC Mile and The Hong Kong Mile. In that last one he finished only 2 lengths behind the winner at 70:1. Not racing in so long, he fits the conditions of this restricted stakes race and if fit he puts up solid figures every time. One would think that class alone would push him over the top. His workouts have been very steady and he will have a clear run on the outside. This is a very contentious field. RocLine 7:2

Golden Balls- SCRATCHED

Going to scan the tote for value in this race. There are too many likely trifecta combinations in my opinion, so I most likely will be studying the exacta probables. I see a field with no clear favorite in my eyes. I think this may end up being a decent betting race. I hope there aren't any further scratches to ruin it.

[garyscpa]

Very nice analysis, Kevroc. I like Aggie Engineer, too.

Just a suggestion, but how about starting a new thread for each day's Race of the Day. That way we don't have to scroll through all of the old analyses.