No die-hard frontrunners in this long route, but
National Treasure has only won on the lead and
Scotland can’t afford to get behind these classy laterunners. Best chance for
is to track closely, as projected, blinkers on. That should keep the pace honest, but no meltdown or wire-to-wire steal. The TFUS pace projector looks very formful.
Forte: A few chinks in the armor deflect a short price
Produced two speed figure advances on wet tracks, and he has a big “wet” Tomlinson rating. He didn’t match his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Beyer until he ran second as the favorite in the Belmont. Although, he did win the two Derby prep races in between with the lower figs. He merely nosed one of only four foes to win last time, although he did battle aside Angel of Empire to get by. Not way against him, but others viable at better prices.
Arcangelo: Can’t deny this precocious contender; prefer over ML favorite
Won Belmont Stakes with aplomb fifth time out, after beating the favorite to win the G3 Peter Pan. Only
Mage and maybe
Scotland rival that precocity. Won three times from where it projects to land in the pace mix, loosely in the midpack tier with
Forte. Another move forward seems at least as likely as regression after several sharp 5f works at Saratoga. Castellano opts to ride this one over his other mount here—Derby winner
Mage. May wind up the favorite or an underlaid second choice; ML seems fair.
Tapit Trice: Usable as double-digit sixth choice after disappointing Triple Crown campaign
Promising Derby trail fizzled on the day, revived with a “mild bid” to lose place by a nose to today’s favorite in the Belmont, then “lacked a rally” to hit the Haskell super after dodging a fading runner and going wide. Tied for last on the morning line at 12-1 seems pretty generous for a classy horse that could turn things around in its 8th race. And yet, probably an underlay beneath vertical winners.
Mage: Derby winner absolutely playable third choice
Even the disappointing Preakness added another G1 in-the-money finish to Mage’s short resumé. Placed behind a Haskell surprise winner ahead of the favorite and today’s rival to the inside last time to earn another competitive figure—and that G1 was merely a prep for this race. Late running rating rivaled only by less-inspiring
Tapit Trice, modest field size should reduce pace trouble. Will leverage dampened odds prominently.
National Treasure: Pass on unfavorable setup here
Won the Preakness over regressing
Mage in third, but barely held off Blazing Sevens. That one disappointed for show as odds-on favorite in the Curlin next, won wire-to-wire by today’s rival
Scotland. Not way outclassed or overmatched for the lead and can still improve, but hard to see a frontrunning path to victory here—the only way he’s won. I appreciate the contrarian PA interest here, but I can't see him getting loose or holding off enough of these classy late runners to contend. Especially at single-digit fourth choice.
Disarm: Could outrun odds with favorable setup closer to the pace
Ran fourth in a Jim Dandy field of five behind winner
Forte, but still earned a respectable 119 TFUS speed figure. He beat a modest field in the G3 Matt Winn before that, after hitting the Derby superfecta underneath
Mage—the last time he raced on a dry track. Projects to sit off the two pace setters to his inside and out, with enough late run to hold off closers. Setup could make his day at a price.
Scotland: Precocious and versatile with upside—how far will it carry today?
Possesses only triple-digit TFUS speed figures in only four races, with a 117 last out over 9f on this track. Only
Mage can top that precocity. Projects to get the lead over rival
National Treasure, who may battle for it, but Scotland also won two back from 7th. Field-lowest late rating by a few points, but plenty of upside in this one, and only one career loss, by a nose. Distance goes farther and waters get deeper here, but totally usable tied for sixth choice.
Ranking in tiers by betting interest:
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-
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I will try to beat the top two favorites in the exacta, and allow them with price horses in the deeper exotics. Something like this:
Win:
Exacta: key
with
&
, maybe
(underneath) at a price
Trifecta: add
Superfecta: add
or
, not both