Surely money on the double is categorically sharper than the Derby win pool, and a fifth choice winner in the Oaks amplifies this. Ironically, this may not be a great indication of final win odds accordingly—sort of the opposite of day-to-day races where you have to rely on the will pays to predict final odds that change dramatically in the final seconds. Hard to imagine Derby odds moving like that. I'll use it as a proxy for a "value" line of shaper money, and weight it more in valuing exotics than the win pool.
These odds largely reflect our discussions all week. They definitely reshuffle the top three, with a "surprise"
Angel of Empire on top. But one of our own
called this out in the Skinner scratch thread. DRF has an
article with a fair value line with
at 5-1, expected odds 6-1, and he's Aragona's top pick accordingly.
But 3-1? Hard to imagine he'll go that low. He's still at 6-1 with $3 million in the pool, just shy of second choice
Tapit Trice. I guess you can anticipate that his odds drop some more, or that he's an even better value to win than his backers predicted.
Can't say as we'd accurately predicted
Forte and
Tapit Trice tied for second choice at 9/2, but it makes sense. Tapit Trice got more attention, and Forte more skepticism from the enthusiasts. DRF's Aragona values Tapit Trice at 9-1, so even at a more palatable 6-1 than his 5-1 morning line, Tapit Trice may still be an underlay, but a little more playable for those that like him.
The rest is about what we expected. Slightly surprised
Kingsbarns didn't drift up more in the double, but makes sense that 22 Mandarin Hero edged him for seventh choice.
Disarm took a little money in the double, but still above 25-1 in the win pool. Maybe
Derma Sotogake preserves a bit of value in the win pool after getting respect in the double.
Reincarnate and
Hit Show didn't move much from ML in the double, even though they got a little attention. We'll see if he stays there, but
is a very surprising seventh choice at 15-1 right now, besting Verifying. I planned to use
underneath, but given that he'll show up in casual boxes, I'll probably jettison him from my tickets and focus on the other two longshots.
Along with
, I'll stick with my choices
and
. They got more attention in the double than the win pool; I'll take that as confirmation.