and who says u shouldn't know what the odds will be in advance

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

now i know for a fact that there is not one serious handicapper on this forum
that will not be able to spot this


No disrespect meant, but I guess I am that guy who doesn't get it.

Spot what?

Please tell me what I should be seeing in your pre-race posts.

Spell it out for me so that I can be properly excited.

Thank you in advance.

Let me try explaining it to you, Dave:

He tells you that a particular 10-1 morning-line horse figures to end up 3-1 in a particular race...and then it's up to YOU to decide how to use that information in a practical way. By releasing this horse to you, he is not implying that this horse is his main contender in the race...nor does he comment on any other horse in the field. He releases 8-10 such horses per day to his clients...and they use this information to create their own wagering opinions.

If you know beforehand that the in the 7th race will go off at 5-2 instead of the 8-1 that the morning line lists it at...will this help you in your own handicapping and betting of this race? That's the question which determines the usefulness of this man's subscription service...IMO.

[PressThePace]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

prof


so since the prof factor got attacked
my next message is to all of you real serious handicappers on this forum , everyone out there who comes day in and day out to post suggestions and comments on how to beat this game( you know who u are )
what have u done for me lately is the question that i ask ???

what have u done for the small player, the guy who is just getting started , the trying handicapper who has been at it for years and years and still can't figure out a way to win. where are your selections ??? where is all the cleverness and the knowledge and the expertise . i never see it never !!!


no breakdown of a race and how u come up with ur picks

I'll bite on this one.

I've been a member of this forum for almost nine years. I've only posted 350 times over that time frame. Some of the older posts included selections, but very few recently. I'm sure if you added them all up, it wouldn't amount to a profit. I think I've only fully analyzed one race. I was lucky enough to give the cold superfecta. Rest assured, it doesn't go that way often. But, then again, it doesn't have to.

You've alluded to some things that I used to think about as well. Let me say this: You will NEVER have concrete proof that any of the members of this forum are legitimate winners. Personally, I believe they exist. But, why would anyone who is consistently winning at this game want to impart the knowledge needed to be successful when they are in competition with each other? Don't get me wrong. I believe there are clever ways of disseminating information without giving too much, but this site has a treasure trove of information for anyone willing to dive in and do their own work. And, the word "work" is an understatement.

I believe that I've stated in a forum previously that it took half of my adult life to consistently see profit from this game. And, even with that, I still rely on a full-time job for the majority of my income. The edge that I have is so minuscule, I'm simply not going to divulge information that has the potential to be damaging to my bottom line. My plays are way too specific for me to ever go that route. Am I paranoid? Probably.

To all of the long-time losing players: Information is all over. Interpreting the information is up to the person wanting it. I've found the best/most efficient ways of interpreting info is to ask specific questions. Can't expect it to fall into your lap.

Now, I completely understand you being put off by some of the condescending remarks littered throughout these forums. But, to be honest, it comes with the territory. It's a form of social media now. I believe that most of the consistent contributors here have a very high degree of intelligence. Most are really good people and some tend to speak and write in a way that denigrates to those they deem unequal. It's like they are trying to show you how much smarter they are with every key stroke. It amuses me now. To each his own I suppose. I don't understand how they post so often. It takes me forever just to handicap and watch replays. I can't imagine being a regular contributor.

Finally, my advice is to do one off two things: (1) Either blow them off and move on, or (2) Read what they said rather than how they say it. Whatever the case, you'll be better off in moving along and not worrying too much about others.

[sharkey11]

never been better said sir

[Dave Schwartz]

Thaskalos,

Thanks for the clarification.

That's kind of what I got but thought I was missing something OBVIOUS.

[mmmjjjj]

wow wow wow

so i now know where i stand

so this is how i'm seen

from some of the comments in the last few threads


I /am
-- incoherent rambler
-- innocent and really use his threads for entertainment purposes only
-- provoke members of this forum and get them to come back and argue with me
- complain about reputation points ( mine especially)
-- not relaying my messages properly and am misunderstood ( so move on)
--overly conceited
-- blame something other than myself for my mishaps as an odds projector when things don' t go my way
-- make blanket statements about people i know nothing about
-- put up basic stuff that even a 2 y old can accomplish
-- haven't shown any proof of anything, but oh maybe u can predict an odds line once in a blue moon ( but anyone can see past this garbage)

and here some others from the past

--unintelligent
--your product is subjective nonsense
"we have seen clowns like this in the past "
" you are offering nothing of value "
"you don't know how far behind you really are "
" Ya 40,000 feet above , avatar "
" took 8 years to develop product "
' you clearly are out of ur league with most of the posters on this forum'


fair enough !!!! so i want
everyone here especially the regular players , the struggling ones
to remember this for future references
and truly digest what was said and from whom.

re read my posts from the beginning , go slow really digest the information

and soon enough the truth will come to the surface

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

now i know for a fact that there is not one serious handicapper on this forum
that will not be able to spot this


No disrespect meant, but I guess I am that guy who doesn't get it.

Spot what?



Thank you in advance.

dave

no disrespect taken


was just stating that if u are a pro player or a semi pro player
this horse has to be 3-5 on the line. And i would be surprised if some pros wouldn't be able to spot it.

that's all

simple really

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by FakeNameChanged

I agree with you on criticizing people just because their ideas don't jive with ours. Rep points don't mean a damn thing to most of us. I think your ideas are sound, even though I don't quite understand how they would help me. There was another member on here, who sells a sound way to develop your own odds line, and it works well, but requires a fair amount of work.
As to people showing their selections, there are dozens on here who do that and well. PA posted 500 selections multiple times and showed a positive ROI. And just for laughs, go to the selections thread and check out Chris Longshot. Just look at the last few days to a week, he's damn good. Please keep on posting your methods, it's interesting to some of us.

fake to ur highlighted points

-- (pace)did it two years ago and the r.o.i was very small
but never continued and there is not enough contribution from the big
guys at all

--- I 've done extensive research on the chris longshot thread and while its good for the recreational player it does nothing for the serious player or the player who wants to be a consistent winner(imo)
he doesn't give wagering advice so u have to assume that all his selections have to be boxed for the exa /tri/super/ and win

as he claims all his wins

but i have no problem with what he is attempting to do

put through 6,000 of his races in the past years and he is (down r.o.i )so it doesn't help . plus when he starts going on losing streaks there is no bankroll to support it especially if u are a struggling player. so for me

just smoke and mirrors

anyway thanks for ur interest

i have to warn u that u are one of the few supporters here as i am getting it from all sides

but appreciate ur interest

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

If we could only bet morning line odds!

u can mike

alot of the times
the bookies fall asleep

so set up accounts run ur own numbers and u will spot
big differences in what ur seeing as ur contenders and what they have on the line

an extra 300-400 dollars a month wouldn't hurt anyone

u do have to be clever though

and they might have eyes on forums like this

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by castaway01

And then the last 100 posts were mmmjjj calling out people by name (Randall, me, CJ, etc.) who initially asked what of value he was actually providing and trying to get us to come back and argue with him. His main contribution is that he tells you that the ML is bad and some very obvious horse will be bet down---but not to bet them or not or if they should be bet down, just that they will be. Very basic stuff that anyone looking at a tote board can see. The posts were mostly incoherent rambling but he got a couple butt-kissers to tell him what a genius he is. The rest of us said, "So what?" and have checked out, but now he's triggered about that and trying to call PA out about his low reputation points.

Edit: See posts 198 and 199 for the "I had 10 beers before posting this" drunken rambling "contributions"

cast

don't mind if u take swings at me im ok with it

but i believe its unfair and wrong for u to call out certain individuals
for being interested in a process which u seem to think is childish and beneath you

and the rest of ur statement -well im just stunned as i really have no words for this

by the way i know that anyone can see it with 2 minutes to post i know !!!!!
but can you see it 36 hours before post

that is only for u to answer and only you hold the truth

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

and they might have eyes on forums like this

Eyes on forums like this= Maybe

Eyes on posts from mmmjjjj= I Don't Think So

[mmmjjjj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

"Show me the money'...the man says.

Friend...is this what you feel that you've done here? You've "showed us the money"? When did YOU post any picks here...so we could see if you are really the "real deal"...as you've repeatedly called yourself? Why would you ask others to do something that you yourself haven't done? Whenever one of your selected betdowns loses the race, you quickly remind us that it wasn't really a "selection"...you were only predicting the betting action. And whenever the betting action doesn't show up on your horse, but the betting action goes somewhere else...you blame those enigmatic "Whales"...while never admitting that you were "wrong" yourself. If you are taking credit for your successful betdown horses, then...why not admit that you are "wrong" whenever your forecasted betting action doesn't materialize. No one is perfect...not even you.

You are a knowledgeable guy, and you are clearly onto something here...but your presentation needs work. You appear overly conceited...and you make blanket statements about people whom you know nothing about. You gave me your subscription rates in a personal message...and then you told me to get hold of you...when I "run into some cash". How did you know that I didn't have the money for your subscription fee? See what I mean? Get off your high horse. You say that "only losers post". I could easily say the same about those who sell their "selections" to clients. But I don't...because I'm a humble kind of guy.

to ur highlighted points

--how do i do this thas when they were suppose to be projections

-- not blaming the whales for my mishaps-- i was only making a statement about how their betting patterns are obvious so they will screw with the projections

-- i will always be wrong in some projections and i have alluded to that more than once. remember thas in my examples i offer my line could or could not be the real line according to my estimations

. but what is real is the projection itself .

that projection is the highest odds the horse should be loading
into the gate .


eg i put a horse should be 3-1 -- that is the highest he should be no matter what

now my real line could be 6-5 so if the horse is 2-1 at the gate i will still have an overlay . but u as a viewer can not make that call because the loading odds of 2-1 are lower than my projection odds of 3-1 . got it

but what u ultimately know is that at least 20 percent of the take will be on this horse. 95 percent of the time

so now u could work that into ur own race analysis

undesrstood

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by TonyK@HSH

I have to side with Mountainman here. He does a very good job on the ML is part of one of the best racing shows in the business. I never had the pleasure to meet MM but I really respect the job he does.

When Penn National enters two days prior to a race the M/L maker has about 30 minutes to create the line, before the programs are sent to be printed. This job is completed with very skeletal PP's.

Much tougher job than it appears to be

TonyK

TX, sir. Hopefully, we will someday meet face to face (with the requisite 6 feet separating those faces, of course). I bowed out of the thread primarily to avoid unpleasantries, but also because I'm not a big proponent of long torturous debates often won by attrition. I gave my take. And that's enough.

Incidentally, as I did post on another thread, the guy means well and is somewhat likeable. Nor do I find him lacking in knowledge.

Concerning the show, I DO consider boldly and (often) accurately predicting final odds on air to be a service more invaluable than conventional aspects of racing analysis. And in doing that, I have ZERO problem with admitting to a bad line (the public can sometimes prove harder to handicap than are the horses) and adjusting on the fly.

And I must add that you're very sharp and well-schooled in racing to grasp the inconvenience of deadlines. Try fine tuning an odds- line while the print shop guy stands impatiently at the door of your office tapping his toe and stage-whispering about his massive workload. And while dozens of entries that must be checked pronto for eligibility pile up in the printer. We draw Tuesday, for example, I do the show that night, then have (roughly) 45 min to craft a line (while fielding all sorts of questions from my crew and dealing with emergent issues) Wednesday morning. An ast racing sec who can't do 8 things at once (and do them right) is not suited to the job.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

fake to ur highlighted points

-- (pace)did it two years ago and the r.o.i was very small
but never continued and there is not enough contribution from the big
guys at all

Pace did it MULTIPLE times....MULTIPLE 500 race workouts with positive ROIs.

Let's see you DO ONE.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

u can mike

alot of the times
the bookies fall asleep

Nonsense.

If I cared about this issue, I'd use the highly accurate projected odds recently rolled out by DRF.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by mmmjjjj

wow wow wow

so i now know where i stand

so this is how i'm seen

from some of the comments in the last few threads

I've been nothing but polite to you, although I couldn't possibly care less about your gibberish. Stop PM'ing people about me...at least post it up on my thread, if you have something to say. On second thought--don't. I really don't care to read your desperate attempts to seem intelligent.

-NCG