Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-08-2013, 05:03 PM   #91
mostpost
Registered User
 
mostpost's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: North Riverside, Il.
Posts: 16,047
Quote:
Originally Posted by Striker
Favorites to win the derby since 1970--

1972--Riva Ridge
1973--Secretariat
1974--Cannonade
1975--Foolish Pleasure
1977--Seattle Slew
1979--Spectacular Bid
2000--Fu Peg
2004--Smarty Jones
2007--Street Sense
2008--Big Brown

Out of 43 derbies, 10 favs won hitting at about 23%
Two interesting things about your list. The fact that Affirmed was not favored in 1978 and the twenty year span from 1980 to 1999 when no favorites won.
Except for that outlier, favorites seem to win the Kentucky Derby about as often as horses win regular races.
__________________
"When you come at the King, You'd best not miss." Omar Little
mostpost is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-08-2013, 05:36 PM   #92
bob60566
Vancouver Island
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,747
Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost
Two interesting things about your list. The fact that Affirmed was not favored in 1978 and the twenty year span from 1980 to 1999 when no favorites won.
Except for that outlier, favorites seem to win the Kentucky Derby about as often as horses win regular races.
So four favorites have won in the past thirty two years.
bob60566 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-08-2013, 05:38 PM   #93
mostpost
Registered User
 
mostpost's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: North Riverside, Il.
Posts: 16,047
Quote:
Originally Posted by bob60566
So four favorites have won in the past thirty two years.
Yes, and that means nothing in determining who might win this weeks Derby. Nothing.
__________________
"When you come at the King, You'd best not miss." Omar Little
mostpost is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-08-2013, 06:04 PM   #94
Striker
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,987
Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost
Two interesting things about your list. The fact that Affirmed was not favored in 1978 and the twenty year span from 1980 to 1999 when no favorites won.
Except for that outlier, favorites seem to win the Kentucky Derby about as often as horses win regular races.
Alydar was 6-5 and Affirmed was 9-5 in the 1978 derby.
Striker is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-08-2013, 06:31 PM   #95
bob60566
Vancouver Island
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,747
Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost
Yes, and that means nothing in determining who might win this weeks Derby. Nothing.
I was meaning the one on the first Saturday in May
bob60566 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-08-2013, 09:48 PM   #96
plainolebill
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Willamette Valley, Oregon
Posts: 1,621
Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost
Yes, and that means nothing in determining who might win this weeks Derby. Nothing.
I think it does when you consider that it takes some racing luck, a good trip, etc. in a 20 horse field. Favorites in a 20 horse field are nearly always underlays.
plainolebill is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-08-2013, 10:02 PM   #97
mostpost
Registered User
 
mostpost's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: North Riverside, Il.
Posts: 16,047
Quote:
Originally Posted by bob60566
I was meaning the one on the first Saturday in May
I can't believe I typed "week's". I meant this year's Derby. Duh!!!
__________________
"When you come at the King, You'd best not miss." Omar Little
mostpost is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-08-2013, 10:37 PM   #98
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,174
I will await cj's opinion on this race...I'm catching up on a couple of days worth of posts, so if he's posted it elsewhere, my apologies..
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-09-2013, 10:07 PM   #99
Valuist
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
Quote:
Originally Posted by mostpost
I can't believe I typed "week's". I meant this year's Derby. Duh!!!
Week(s) or weak?

I'll get hammered for the mere mention of a weak crop, because somebody says it almost every year now. And you know what? For the most part, they've been right. Every few years, a crop will be a bit stronger. But anybody who's followed racing for 15 or more years knows there actually have been strong crops. Just not too many recent ones.
Valuist is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-09-2013, 10:35 PM   #100
Sunday Silence
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 79
Wow

I saw Verrazano win at Gulfstream in his allowance win. Freak. Not impressed with his 2 turn races -at all. He wants no part of 1 1/4 miles. Slow fractions, weak Beyer, no thanks. Will be vastly overbet. I wouldn't touch him at 7-1. Don't think he'll be in the first 5. Goldencents by open lengths. One of the plodders gets second.
Sunday Silence is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2013, 08:35 AM   #101
Tread
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 359
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunday Silence
I saw Verrazano win at Gulfstream in his allowance win. Freak. Not impressed with his 2 turn races -at all. He wants no part of 1 1/4 miles. Slow fractions, weak Beyer, no thanks. Will be vastly overbet. I wouldn't touch him at 7-1. Don't think he'll be in the first 5. Goldencents by open lengths. One of the plodders gets second.

Which fractions were slow? Goldencents came home in 38.3. Verrazano came home in 36.5, into a 20mph headwind. Which fractions better project ability at 1 1/4, early ones or late ones?
Tread is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2013, 11:08 AM   #102
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,527
If it was as windy/gusty at AQU as people are reporting, I don't think a figure based measurement for the Wood is the best possible way to evaluate those horses.

First you have to adjust the fractions for track speed, the wind, etc.. (which is not an easy task when there are gusts and the wind may be drying out the track), then you have to adjust the final time correctly (which is often more difficult for 2 turn races even under normal conditions because of the smaller sample size), and then you have to form a view on how that set of fractions impacted each of the individual horses.

I know there are some terrific figure makers out there, but this is an example of a race where I'd limit my figure analysis to a more general "the pace was slow" and look at the race from a more qualitative perspective relative to the other major preps.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2013, 11:31 AM   #103
Producer
Registered User
 
Producer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tread
Which fractions were slow? Goldencents came home in 38.3. Verrazano came home in 36.5, into a 20mph headwind. Which fractions better project ability at 1 1/4, early ones or late ones?

It's all relevant. The derby early pace will be nothing like the Woods. As far as I see it, If you liked or disliked Big V going into the Wood, this race itself shouldn't sway your opinion one way or the other. It was just a wacky race.

For me, this also goes for Normandy Invasion. Lots of people now love this horse for the derby off his perceived huge late run after a slow early pace and into a swift late pace but its very possible he was just best suited at going slow early and sprinting home late. Many horses do not run their best in these scenarios, especially dirt route runners. If anything, this race is going to make NI a huge underlay, not Verrazano, IMO.
Producer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2013, 11:51 AM   #104
RXB
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
Any good frontrunner can run a fast final fraction if they are allowed to crawl early. That's what Uncle Mo did in the Timely Writer stakes in 2011; how did that work for him stretching an extra furlong next out in the Wood Memorial? Comparing final fractions on dirt without considering the pace context is misleading.

The farther you run, the more aerobic ability you need. The test of aerobic ability is an extended run at a solid pace, not a jog followed by a 200m sprint at the end. So a race like the Wood doesn't tell us much.
RXB is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2013, 12:54 PM   #105
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,446
Normandy Invasion is the only one fro the Wood I consider a contender now.
He ran well against the negative pace.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:49 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.