I'm running a little study testing proportional betting on Exacta part wheel tickets and was wondering if anyone else structures their bets this way.
My Exacta wheel plays take the form of A/BC or A/BCD or even A/BCDE
This test assumes a constant risk of $36 per race either 18/18 or 12/12/12 or 9/9/9/9 depending on number of horses on bottom of the ticket.
I'm comparing the P/L to betting the bottom horses proportionally to their $2 probables.
(for this test I'm using final probables, in real time I'd have to use -2 MTP)
I'm gambling on the hope? that the pool inefficiencies will help as much as hurt on my plays.
So far I've tabulated 161 hits in November. (Shhh on the misses
)
Of those, the flat return is $26,394....the proportional bet sizing return is $28,022
giving a increased return of 6.2%
The attachment shows 3 examples of this type of bets.
Total 3 race return of $521 vs $632
I picked good ones for the demo.
I didn't include the 3 Exacta Will-pay grids in the picture. too messy
I'll post the final test numbers later after a larger sample is available.
Any comments?