2023 handicapping year in review

[SBD400]

I am retired, worked my ass off watching all of the NYRA races this year, building a ratings system, creating a database and grading and writing analysis on just about every race and horse this year at NYRA.

I am not big bettor, but very happy to clock in at -0.88 ROI, just missed a profitable year. Last year I was at -12% without the ratings and database so all the work definitely made a difference.

I almost exclusively bet exactas and WPS. Biggest hits were a 114 to 1 exacta for exactas and I had a 32 to 1 winner as the biggest odds on a win bet.

I learned for me and I have known this over the years that knowing a circuit inside and out is the only way for me and being very methodical in how I bet.

Happy New Year everyone and interested to hear how your year went, the highlights and anything you learned.

[Dave Schwartz]

I salute you for being so committed and keeping records.

Where you able to determine what worked better this year than last?

[SBD400]

Ha, ha , thanks, I clearly have a lot of time on my hands !


The difference for me is the grading of each horses race and the analysis I write based on actually watching the replays very closely. Its one thing to look at a race on paper and try to bet it, its much better for me to actually see the grades I gave the horse and my comments based on my own eyes. Not everything shows up on the chart or the pps. I also don't use speed figures at all, so even more important for me to use my own ratings.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by SBD400

I am retired, worked my ass off watching all of the NYRA races this year, building a ratings system, creating a database and grading and writing analysis on just about every race and horse this year at NYRA.

I am not big bettor, but very happy to clock in at -0.88 ROI, just missed a profitable year. Last year I was at -12% without the ratings and database so all the work definitely made a difference.

I almost exclusively bet exactas and WPS. Biggest hits were a 114 to 1 exacta for exactas and I had a 32 to 1 winner as the biggest odds on a win bet.

I learned for me and I have known this over the years that knowing a circuit inside and out is the only way for me and being very methodical in how I bet.

Happy New Year everyone and interested to hear how your year went, the highlights and anything you learned.

I'm the same way, and like you, New York is that circuit.
I'm currently trying to split time between Aqu and my home town track FG and it's not working too well at either place.
My highlight this year was a profitable NYRA season, bouyed by a $6k Pick 4 score at Belmont in May, and a solid winning Sar meet. Baq and Aqu fall meets were losers for me.

Happy New Year

[MJC922]

Only solid positive ROI for me overall was on doubles, +14%

I also got involved offshore with that match-up bet on the Breeders' Cup which honestly has completely spoiled me to the point where I now have very little interest in betting serious money again until such time that those types of bets are being offered on a more regular basis.

Frankly, comprehensive handicapping, replays etc is too much time for me these days. I'm working full time and I don't want to spend 4 or 5 more hours in front of a monitor on Saturday just for the possible chance of finding a decent bet or worse trying to force something only because it's the weekend and I happened to burn enough time handicapping to have developed a lukewarm opinion on something that for a full time player would be an 'action' bet anyway.

I hope things improve when it comes to betting options for US racing in the coming years because otherwise I don't see myself getting 'serious' about racing again until I retire, which is still quite a ways off. Even then, unless there are better wagering options on offer for racing I may go in other directions with my gambling in retirement. I don't see myself chasing pick 6's like Beyer/Crist but I guess never say never, I can understand the mindset where the older one gets the less they probably want to grind.

I could throw myself back into developing an automated plan of a attack like the CAW type stuff which I actually have the working pieces of from end to end but it's just too much more research still, it's going to either have to wait or consume all of my spare time again, and I can't do that now. When I get older and retire I may not even be up for it then either tbh. It's a LOT of code for one person.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by MJC922

I could throw myself back into developing an automated plan of a attack like the CAW type stuff which I actually have the working pieces of from end to end but it's just too much more research still, it's going to either have to wait or consume all of my spare time again, and I can't do that now. When I get older and retire I may not even be up for it then either tbh. It's a LOT of code for one person.

Welcome to my world.
LOL

I've invested more than 15,000 hours just in the coding.

Research is extra. LOL

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Welcome to my world.
LOL

I've invested more than 15,000 hours just in the coding.

Research is extra. LOL

You're a hard worker and I wish you much success in the new year.

[TheYeoman]

Originally Posted by SBD400

I am retired, worked my ass off watching all of the NYRA races this year, building a ratings system, creating a database and grading and writing analysis on just about every race and horse this year at NYRA.

I am not big bettor, but very happy to clock in at -0.88 ROI, just missed a profitable year. Last year I was at -12% without the ratings and database so all the work definitely made a difference.

I almost exclusively bet exactas and WPS. Biggest hits were a 114 to 1 exacta for exactas and I had a 32 to 1 winner as the biggest odds on a win bet.

I learned for me and I have known this over the years that knowing a circuit inside and out is the only way for me and being very methodical in how I bet.

Happy New Year everyone and interested to hear how your year went, the highlights and anything you learned.

Legitimately impressive. I'm willing to bet that if you switched all of your place/show bets to win bets, you'd easily be bumped into profitable

[acorn54]

2023 realized after 40 years of handicapping with publicly available data, that i can do just as well if not better by just reading the entries. i only bet 10-12 horse fields where there is alot of racing luck and traffic trouble on the turf races. all my years of betting with handicapping based on data was just an exercise in washing money.

[CheckMark]

SBD, I sent you a private message. Please have a look when you have the time thank you.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Frankly, comprehensive handicapping, replays etc is too much time for me these days. I'm working full time and I don't want to spend 4 or 5 more hours in front of a monitor on Saturday just for the possible chance of finding a decent bet or worse trying to force something only because it's the weekend and I happened to burn enough time handicapping to have developed a lukewarm opinion on something that for a full time player would be an 'action' bet anyway.

Exactly. I'm retired but I still find myself getting tired of all the work and so few opportunities. Maybe if I changed my area of focus I could find more plays, but then I'd enjoy it all less.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Exactly. I'm retired but I still find myself getting tired of all the work and so few opportunities. Maybe if I changed my area of focus I could find more plays, but then I'd enjoy it all less.

can only beat the races one race at a time

[Parkview_Pirate]

I'm a recreational player, mostly weekend betting. I've begun digging into ROIs for 2023, and as with many years, I find myself winning at a small number of tracks:

Higher handle: Sha Tin
Medium handle: Flemington, Eagle Farm, Monmouth, Saratoga, Woodbine
Lower handle: Churchill, Hastings (NZ), Te Rapa, Pukekohe Park

Almost half my handle for last year was at Sha Tin, but my positive ROI there is only 5%. I showed a positive ROI at quite a few "minuscule handle" tracks (less than $100 bet), and overall for all racing showed a small loss. Sha Tin is the only track I feel I can win long-term with the venue - all other tracks I'm just trying to beat a race here and there.

I used to do pretty well (at least positive) at medium handle tracks Del Mar, Belmont, Aqueduct and Ellis Park, but not last year. Saratoga was a bit of a surprise for me this past year - but I'll take it.

Almost all of my wagers are flat bets, exactas and omnis (Sha Tin) with very little on horizontals.

Certain tracks I avoid like the plague, as their races just do not match up well at all with my handicapping approach: Tampa, Fair Grounds, Kentucky Downs, Indiana Downs (this is a mystery for me)

Another circuit I like but don't wager much on are some of the French tracks. It's hard to be awake for Longchamp after being up all night for Sha Tin or Aus/NZ racing.

My plan for 2024 is to scale back the North American plays, increase Sha Tin, and focus more on the winning venues of Aus, NZ and Japan racing. I'll be playing less in the NHC and other contests, as they are almost exclusively North American tracks, and my success has continued to wane at those tracks.

[andicap]

I wonder if smaller tracks are doing better because the CAWs avoid them??

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

I'm a recreational player, mostly weekend betting. I've begun digging into ROIs for 2023, and as with many years, I find myself winning at a small number of tracks:

Higher handle: Sha Tin
Medium handle: Flemington, Eagle Farm, Monmouth, Saratoga, Woodbine
Lower handle: Churchill, Hastings (NZ), Te Rapa, Pukekohe Park

Almost half my handle for last year was at Sha Tin, but my positive ROI there is only 5%. I showed a positive ROI at quite a few "minuscule handle" tracks (less than $100 bet), and overall for all racing showed a small loss. Sha Tin is the only track I feel I can win long-term with the venue - all other tracks I'm just trying to beat a race here and there.

I used to do pretty well (at least positive) at medium handle tracks Del Mar, Belmont, Aqueduct and Ellis Park, but not last year. Saratoga was a bit of a surprise for me this past year - but I'll take it.

Almost all of my wagers are flat bets, exactas and omnis (Sha Tin) with very little on horizontals.

Certain tracks I avoid like the plague, as their races just do not match up well at all with my handicapping approach: Tampa, Fair Grounds, Kentucky Downs, Indiana Downs (this is a mystery for me)

Another circuit I like but don't wager much on are some of the French tracks. It's hard to be awake for Longchamp after being up all night for Sha Tin or Aus/NZ racing.

My plan for 2024 is to scale back the North American plays, increase Sha Tin, and focus more on the winning venues of Aus, NZ and Japan racing. I'll be playing less in the NHC and other contests, as they are almost exclusively North American tracks, and my success has continued to wane at those tracks.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

Almost half my handle for last year was at Sha Tin, but my positive ROI there is only 5%. ... Sha Tin is the only track I feel I can win long-term with the venue

Almost all of my wagers are flat bets, exactas and omnis (Sha Tin) with very little on horizontals.

My plan for 2024 is to scale back the North American plays, increase Sha Tin

I gave up on North American tracks a few years ago. Hong Kong is a significantly better product. A much more cerebral game, as well. My only concern going forward is the (what appears to be) sudden increase in late odds swings.