Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 03-27-2023, 05:47 AM   #1
Half Smoke
Registered User
 
Half Smoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,269
jocks - how much importance do you give to them

.

I haven't seen a lot of discussion of jocks here

maybe I just missed it

for example - let's say you thought a horse was fair value at 3/1

but then there is a jockey change

and Irad Ortiz Jr. is out because he's sick with the flu -

and a middle of the pack jock is now up

and it's a 2 turn race on dirt with 12 horses - and the horse is a closer

how would that effect your estimation of fair odds__________?


.
__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe

Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-27-2023 at 05:52 AM.
Half Smoke is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 06:13 AM   #2
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,653
i pay more attention to the Jockey Agent than i do to the Jockey.
lamboguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 09:48 AM   #3
Johnny V
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 646
I pay a little more attention to the jockey in turf races. Also depending on what specific track I am handicapping I might pay a little more attention to the rider in some cases.
Johnny V is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 10:54 AM   #4
ranchwest
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,147
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
i pay more attention to the Jockey Agent than i do to the Jockey.
Good point. The agent and the trainer select jockeys and that is what puts them on winners. Certainly some jockeys are better than others (oh, I wish I could see Shoe ride one more time), but they need a good mount.
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
ranchwest is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 12:17 PM   #5
46zilzal
velocitician
 
46zilzal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,246
What do horses do after they've thrown their rider? Continue around the track , usually wide, with the group
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
46zilzal is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 12:20 PM   #6
shout1966
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 100
i pay attention more to the low percentage riders who effect a horses performance day in and day out and then also look for rider switches to which these riders come off of horses and jockeys who are top jockeys climb aboard
shout1966 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 07:51 PM   #7
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
I’ll follow the jockeys when they do the running.
Then again, I don’t follow the horses (runners) either.

I follow the only factor that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action.
All that’s necessary is the realization that the value of money is the primary motivation, and the ability to evaluate the betting patterns in real time.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 07:54 PM   #8
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
I’ll follow the jockeys when they do the running.
Then again, I don’t follow the horses (runners) either.

I follow one of the factors that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action.
All that’s necessary is the realization that the value of money is the primary motivation, and the ability to evaluate the betting patterns in real time.
FTFY...
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 09:07 PM   #9
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
FTFY...
Perhaps that’s necessary from your perspective, but there was definitely no need to fix my statement.
I’ll stand by my personal preferences:
Quote:
I follow the only factor that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action
Tote Analysis for Race #7 – Santa Anita – Mon 2-27-23
Code:

7	NAME	         ML	OPEN	3m	PP	PT	3m	5m	8m	12m	FIN
1	Getthemoney	1.8	5.0	4.5	1	80	79	67	73	78	3
2	Coffee inBed	1.2	1.0	0.8	2	120	208	178	105	141	2
3	Liberal Lady	8.0	10.0	12.0	3	130	117	120	120	119	4
4	Lily Poo	3.5	3.5	3.5	4	152	83	99	102	92	
5	Anywho	        8.0	3.5	4.5	5	79	72	68	70	66	1
6	Clasymadmoselle	20.0	21.0	22.0	6	232	239	236	196	164	
0	0		0.0	####	 0      0	115	142	129	99	108	PAR
RESULTS
POS # Horse...............Win........Place.......Show
1st: 5 Anywho..........$11.80.....$4.60.......$3.60
2nd: 2 Coffee In Bed................$3.00.......$2.10
3rd: 1 Getthemoney................................$3.00
4th: 3 Liberal Lady
5th: 4 Lily Poo
6th: 6 Classymademoiselle
.
.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 09:32 PM   #10
Mdnspecialist
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
I’ll follow the jockeys when they do the running.
Then again, I don’t follow the horses (runners) either.

I follow the only factor that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action.
All that’s necessary is the realization that the value of money is the primary motivation, and the ability to evaluate the betting patterns in real time.

Does this method point to any horses over 10-1? Or does it generally show drastic moves in the betting action on lower priced horses?
Mdnspecialist is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 09:46 PM   #11
iamt
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 310
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
Perhaps that’s necessary from your perspective, but there was definitely no need to fix my statement.
I’ll stand by my personal preferences:


Tote Analysis for Race #7 – Santa Anita – Mon 2-27-23
Code:

7    NAME             ML    OPEN    3m    PP    PT    3m    5m    8m    12m    FIN
1    Getthemoney    1.8    5.0    4.5    1    80    79    67    73    78    3
2    Coffee inBed    1.2    1.0    0.8    2    120    208    178    105    141    2
3    Liberal Lady    8.0    10.0    12.0    3    130    117    120    120    119    4
4    Lily Poo    3.5    3.5    3.5    4    152    83    99    102    92    
5    Anywho            8.0    3.5    4.5    5    79    72    68    70    66    1
6    Clasymadmoselle    20.0    21.0    22.0    6    232    239    236    196    164    
0    0        0.0    ####     0      0    115    142    129    99    108    PAR
RESULTS
POS # Horse...............Win........Place.......Show
1st: 5 Anywho..........$11.80.....$4.60.......$3.60
2nd: 2 Coffee In Bed................$3.00.......$2.10
3rd: 1 Getthemoney................................$3.00
4th: 3 Liberal Lady
5th: 4 Lily Poo
6th: 6 Classymademoiselle
.
.

If you had discovered this system where tote prices is all you need, surely you would have mentioned it before instead of sidetracking this thread with it.
iamt is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 09:51 PM   #12
Mdnspecialist
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
Perhaps that’s necessary from your perspective, but there was definitely no need to fix my statement.
I’ll stand by my personal preferences:


Tote Analysis for Race #7 – Santa Anita – Mon 2-27-23
Code:

7	NAME	         ML	OPEN	3m	PP	PT	3m	5m	8m	12m	FIN
1	Getthemoney	1.8	5.0	4.5	1	80	79	67	73	78	3
2	Coffee inBed	1.2	1.0	0.8	2	120	208	178	105	141	2
3	Liberal Lady	8.0	10.0	12.0	3	130	117	120	120	119	4
4	Lily Poo	3.5	3.5	3.5	4	152	83	99	102	92	
5	Anywho	        8.0	3.5	4.5	5	79	72	68	70	66	1
6	Clasymadmoselle	20.0	21.0	22.0	6	232	239	236	196	164	
0	0		0.0	####	 0      0	115	142	129	99	108	PAR
RESULTS
POS # Horse...............Win........Place.......Show
1st: 5 Anywho..........$11.80.....$4.60.......$3.60
2nd: 2 Coffee In Bed................$3.00.......$2.10
3rd: 1 Getthemoney................................$3.00
4th: 3 Liberal Lady
5th: 4 Lily Poo
6th: 6 Classymademoiselle
.
.
I had the 45-1 wire to wire winner in the race before yours. Contest max is $42. Horse paid $93.60. Last two picks were just block picks.


Last edited by cj; 03-27-2023 at 10:04 PM.
Mdnspecialist is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 10:01 PM   #13
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
I’ll follow the jockeys when they do the running.
Then again, I don’t follow the horses (runners) either.

I follow the only factor that has real meaning in this game: The Betting Action.
All that’s necessary is the realization that the value of money is the primary motivation, and the ability to evaluate the betting patterns in real time.
Why do you do this? Someone asked about jockeys. If you have nothing to add, simply add nothing. It is actually rude.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 10:02 PM   #14
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Why do you do this? Someone asked about jockeys. If you have nothing to add, simply add nothing. It is actually rude.
And now you've derailed a thread once again. You want to talk about tote action, start a thread.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2023, 10:26 PM   #15
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamt View Post
If you had discovered this system where tote prices is all you need, surely you would have mentioned it before instead of sidetracking this thread with it.
It certainly does, but I'm sorry the moderators have cautioned me about discussing it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamt View Post
If you had discovered this system where tote prices is all you need, surely you would have mentioned it before instead of sidetracking this thread with it.
Where have you been? It’s been mentioned quite often, but I could only wish that I developed it myself. Sorry for offering my personal preferences on such a vital handicapping thread.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:43 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.