Is there a steward in the house?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

When Bobby Frankel moved to California in the early 70s I witnessed these turnarounds on a regular basis. When his barn had a new horse they did miracles. Fortunately for me I had a friend working in the barn who would alert me to what was going on behind the scenes. He was a master at detecting and fixing problems the other trainers had no clue about.



If your odds line had the horse at 25-1 why would you ignore the tote at 5-1?

Because I didn't have a friend working in the barn who could alert me to what was going on behind the scenes.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Because I didn't have a friend working in the barn who could alert me to what was going on behind the scenes.

So you assume that unusual tote action is inconsequential in handicapping or betting?

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by AndyC

So you assume that unusual tote action is inconsequential in handicapping or betting?

Depends on where you are playing?

I used to decide by where I was playing, and whether or not it was a hugely promoted day or night.

When Hollywood started running Friday nights I decided there would be some dumb money on the pools for the first month or so.

Later after those players went away, (got tired of losing) there were tons of sharpies playing. Just my recollection. It’s been awhile but in general that’s the way I would look at it.

Sam Houston back in the day used to run late on Friday nights. Those guys staying up late were very sharp. Many from this board

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Depends on where you are playing?

I used to decide by where I was playing, and whether or not it was a hugely promoted day or night.

When Hollywood started running Friday nights I decided there would be some dumb money on the pools for the first month or so.

Later after those players went away, (got tired of losing) there were tons of sharpies playing. Just my recollection. It’s been awhile but in general that’s the way I would look at it.

Sam Houston back in the day used to run late on Friday nights. Those guys staying up late were very sharp. Many from this board

I kept a notebook of trainers and owners. Noted tote action and result.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

So you assume that unusual tote action is inconsequential in handicapping or betting?

No. But I just can't bring myself to put my money down whenever this "unusual tote action" takes place. I must at least see some signs of life in the horse...and this particular time I didn't.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Because I didn't have a friend working in the barn who could alert me to what was going on behind the scenes.

So let me get this straight.
You would value the word of a barn hand over just viewing him or any other member of the connections making a substantial wager?
My friend in this game Actions speak Volumes Louder that just Words.

[lamboguy]

on all 3 of these horses, someone must have had a good hunch, and they wound up betting a whole bunch!

today's horse in the 9th race paid a$5.00 bill.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Nitro

So let me get this straight.
You would value the word of a barn hand over just viewing him or any other member of the connections making a substantial wager?
My friend in this game Actions speak Volumes Louder that just Words.

I said that because of something that AndyC said in a prior post. Truth be told...I have made a life out of ignoring "connected" people who were making 'substantial wagers'. The day that I peek over the shoulders of the "connected" bettors will also be my last day playing this game.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I said that because of something that AndyC said in a prior post. Truth be told...I have made a life out of ignoring "connected" people who were making 'substantial wagers'. The day that I peek over the shoulders of the "connected" bettors will also be my last day playing this game.

Okay fair enough, but I'm sorry to about that sort of truth!
Someday you might finally realize that you’ll never know the actual mental and physical condition of these animals on any given day. That’s when you’ll be able to humble yourself (As I have) to the realization that the PP’s and statistical data are simply reference points that can be interpreted any number of ways. There may very well be some peeking over another’s shoulder when there’s an appreciation about the value of money to those wagering and significance of the resulting betting patterns.

With that in mind I have to mention that before I got involved with the tote a good friend of mine had once told me that his dad never had a real job, but he did in fact have a small office near the $100 window at the local track. He apparently knew exactly who’s shoulder he should be looking over.

[lamboguy]

if i have learned anything on how to bet into these pools, its that if i am betting a horse, i am much better off betting with plenty of time left on the clock to give the CAW enough time to react to my bet or give the conditional wager guys time to adjust off of my money.

the guys betting this trainer so far, have made sure they bet real late in the wagering cycle, they probably go in that way because they don't want anyone to follow in on what they know is a very live horse. the same thing happened in the days of Oscar.

with these guys, you don't need to read a racing form or look at any numbers on the horse. you just bet and line up at the window to collect as long as this lasts. in this game as in most aspects of life, all good things come to an end, usually sooner than later.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I said that because of something that AndyC said in a prior post. Truth be told...I have made a life out of ignoring "connected" people who were making 'substantial wagers'. The day that I peek over the shoulders of the "connected" bettors will also be my last day playing this game.

in most cases, you are 100% right. even if you are a tout follower, as plenty of people are, it won't do you too much good to figure this dance at Parx out. they are betting in the last seconds of the clock and they don't give you any time to lower their prices.

[azeri98]

It happened twice on Sunday at Gulfstream Park. Sometimes I think the line makers don't do enough work to determine what the actual odds should be. In the 8th race the was 20 to ml was bet down to 5 to 1 and won the race. He was dropping from AOC into a claiming race for Walsh, The horse wasn't very good in the AOC races but if you go back to his starter allowance races he was right there in terms of speed figs and winning. The last race the horse also for Walsh was 20 to 1 ml and went off at 5/2 . He was probably going to win his maiden but was bumped and checked hard coming home. He didn't win at 5/2. Sometimes I'm not sure what the line makers are looking at.

[Robert Fischer]

"When the odds behave unexpectedly, it's telling me in real time, that I don't understand the race".

you can debate that statement, and I'm open to it, but I feel strongly behind the basics of the statement.

"I don't know" is my most common, and one of my most powerful handicapping prognostications.

I don't understand the race. Unexpected Odds Behavior

That also goes for a bet I had committed to making on horse at say 5/2 ml whose will pays now predict an odds ranking higher than 2nd choice, and likely odds of more like 5/1 rather than 5/2.
If I don't understand why my horse is cold, that's not an 'overlay' that's a different race than I had handicapped.

Sometimes there is value in respecting the odds behavior as a handicapping model, and looking at your wagering menu as if the hot or cold horses are correctly broadcasting inside information. I'll look at the races through those glasses and if there is a big margin of value, then I may bet the odds behavior as a factor.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

"When the odds behave unexpectedly, it's telling me in real time, that I don't understand the race".

you can debate that statement, and I'm open to it, but I feel strongly behind the basics of the statement.

"I don't know" is my most common, and one of my most powerful handicapping prognostications.

I don't understand the race. Unexpected Odds Behavior

That also goes for a bet I had committed to making on horse at say 5/2 ml whose will pays now predict an odds ranking higher than 2nd choice, and likely odds of more like 5/1 rather than 5/2.
If I don't understand why my horse is cold, that's not an 'overlay' that's a different race than I had handicapped.

Sometimes there is value in respecting the odds behavior as a handicapping model, and looking at your wagering menu as if the hot or cold horses are correctly broadcasting inside information. I'll look at the races through those glasses and if there is a big margin of value, then I may bet the odds behavior as a factor.

Not looking to debate you on this subject and I do no disagree with your premise per se. it is just that implementing it is very hard imo. I remember when I was playing thoros about 5 years ago. I had made a horse 4-1 at Gulfstream and he was 18-1 at off. He was so dead on the board that I bet less than I should have. Horse ends up paying either 8 or 9-1 and wins. I bet less because he was dead on the board and then get paid half as much as the off odds. At 9-1 I would not have considered him dead.

One reason I stopped betting for the most part the last couple of years was based off what I posted in the thread I started called 4800 horse database. I found a lot of interesting stuff out in that study (it’s harness racing but so what) and posted a lot of it. My conclusion is that by the time the whales are done you need real rebates to beat this game. I knew that but it took me a lot of real life data to convince myself of the obvious. For me the exception is the pick 4 to pick 6 pools.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

No. But I just can't bring myself to put my money down whenever this "unusual tote action" takes place. I must at least see some signs of life in the horse...and this particular time I didn't.

For the most part that was my reaction to unusual tote action. There are certain situations where I would give tote action greater consideration.