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Old 02-22-2023, 05:03 PM   #1
Robert Fischer
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Saudi Cup 2023

big purse
Taiba, Country Grammer, a Japanese contingent and some others. I haven't capped the race yet, but I have an opinion on a horse that will take some money.
Should be interesting.
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Old 02-22-2023, 05:15 PM   #2
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Try my luck once again with this race

I see my horse Emblem Road is back again this time not as big of a price that he was on race day now at 12-1 morning line

Should be a fantastic race on the weekend
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Old 02-22-2023, 06:03 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by CheckMark View Post
Try my luck once again with this race

I see my horse Emblem Road is back again this time not as big of a price that he was on race day now at 12-1 morning line

Should be a fantastic race on the weekend
That was a great pick
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Old 02-22-2023, 07:15 PM   #4
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Quote:
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That was a great pick
Yesssir it was

The bad thing is every time (and I'm sure others can speak for this) I have a solid pick either high odds or not it seems to always come through just like this one I never had a single cent on it

Oh well I will try to find another one maybe this year!
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Old 02-22-2023, 10:19 PM   #5
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Thumbs up that was the pick of the year

Quote:
Originally Posted by CheckMark View Post
Yesssir it was

The bad thing is every time (and I'm sure others can speak for this) I have a solid pick either high odds or not it seems to always come through just like this one I never had a single cent on it

Oh well I will try to find another one maybe this year!
you will find more! (maybe many more)

Don't force it. Long shots like this one jumped out for you for a reason. You never want to get to where you feel pressured to pick a long shot or to convince yourself and rationalize that a long shot is really the next big one.

#2 - Always go back and look at your winning long shots. Look at other long shots that happened to win. Work backwards.
How did they win (wire-to-wire? was it closing into a hot pace like Rich Strike in the Derby?)??
What were the things that you liked about the horse?
What do the horse's best back races look like?
Was it a long shot because he looked terrible, or moreso because of a heavy favorite or two taking all the $.
Also look at the race. If it was 'just Luck', then what about the race made it crazy and 'random'?? Was it an extreme (very fast or very slow) pace? Even a lucky win could have some things for you to learn from if you look at the race.

you will find more long shots, the best bets are small bets and lean inexpensive tickets, especially when you are testing your theories. take it slow.
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Old 02-23-2023, 10:20 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
you will find more! (maybe many more)

Don't force it. Long shots like this one jumped out for you for a reason. You never want to get to where you feel pressured to pick a long shot or to convince yourself and rationalize that a long shot is really the next big one.

#2 - Always go back and look at your winning long shots. Look at other long shots that happened to win. Work backwards.
How did they win (wire-to-wire? was it closing into a hot pace like Rich Strike in the Derby?)??
What were the things that you liked about the horse?
What do the horse's best back races look like?
Was it a long shot because he looked terrible, or moreso because of a heavy favorite or two taking all the $.
Also look at the race. If it was 'just Luck', then what about the race made it crazy and 'random'?? Was it an extreme (very fast or very slow) pace? Even a lucky win could have some things for you to learn from if you look at the race.

you will find more long shots, the best bets are small bets and lean inexpensive tickets, especially when you are testing your theories. take it slow.
Thanks Robert for the kind words and words of advice! Let's crush this thing!
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Old 02-23-2023, 12:04 PM   #7
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Are there any PPs out yet?
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Old 02-23-2023, 05:16 PM   #8
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Are there any PPs out yet?
DRF has them out now
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Old 02-23-2023, 08:01 PM   #9
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early glance - I'm tossing Jun Light Bolt. 6/1 ml. Should be about 4th choice.

Remorse is 30/1. Kind of a consistent plodder.

Crown Pride possibly heats up the pace, but I just want Remorse for third in the $0.20 Tierce ( Trifecta ).

Taiba is the #10

so, may just do an easy gimmick ticket could be something like; / /
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Old 02-24-2023, 08:27 PM   #10
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Free PPs for the Saudi Cup
https://www.horseracingnation.com/co...rformances_pps
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Old 02-24-2023, 08:35 PM   #11
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BRIS pp's for foreign runners are basically useless.
Are there any other pp's for tomorrow's card that offer some more detail?
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Old 02-24-2023, 11:37 PM   #12
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I wanna bet this race. Looking forward to some picks! Can't gor wrong with Taiba. Might tail on that trip pick but add a few runners in the 3rd spot
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Old 02-25-2023, 07:43 AM   #13
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goes about 12:30

Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
BRIS pp's for foreign runners are basically useless.
Are there any other pp's for tomorrow's card that offer some more detail?
DRF above is decent for paper pps. I haven't busted my head 'capping this race. My usual thing for foreign is I think a US PP (such as DRF or timeformUS) and then a site like Racing Post. They show names and placings and a Racing Post Rating.

Then go watch a lot of Youtube/video of recent pps.


Quote:
Originally Posted by icemantbi View Post
I wanna bet this race. Looking forward to some picks! Can't gor wrong with Taiba. Might tail on that trip pick but add a few runners in the 3rd spot
that's my little 'gimmick' above with Remorse 3rd in post 9 above. Not a high% wager by any means.
I like Remorse as a horse but he's too slow to win unless he gets a battle between Taiba and Crown Pride and then gets a dream pace trip. (otherwise may fin about 5th or so)

Taiba is the worthy favorite.
Country Grammer is a worthy favorite (on his day). same owner Zedan as Taiba. Good owner well meant, although Taiba is the hot prospect.

Japanese Contingent - look for low odds and high Grades (G1) in their form. Watch videos.
-I'm against Jun Light Bolt, but win contender in right trip.
Cafe Pharoah is only 4-1ml , but man this horse's replays look NICE.
respect the whole Japanese contingent, maybe even the turf form.

Those look like the main contenders. CheckMark may have a long shot selection yet to post. Others may agree, or see it diferently.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 02-25-2023 at 07:50 AM.
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Old 02-25-2023, 08:36 AM   #14
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Alrighty guys here goes nothing

Horse by horse analysis followed by top 4 picks below

#7- Raced on turf his entire life and now moves to the dirt track; Form looks ok with itm finishes in G2 or G1 races so they are hoping the same success can come shifting surfaces; Underneath for 3rd and 4th exotics

#10- Likely favourite today in the wagering pools; Sharp winner in the Malibu at Santa Anita where he won by 4 lengths as the heavy favourite; Has been off since Dec 26 but has been showing some nice long workouts in prep for today's race; Baffert 38% with horses who won last time out; A major player

#3- Has had good success racing in the middle east with a 2nd place finish over in Dubai last year but now in Riyadh so a much different environment now; Has had 3 straight 2nd place finishes in a row which the last time out was a G1 where he just got snuffed at the wire at a good price (13-1); Lane hops back on from the Dubai win in hopes the same success can rub off here; Putting in 2nd and 3rd spots for exotics

#9- I guess the claim off 10k Steve Asmussen worked for the trainer and the horse with 3 wins over the local track; These 3 wins looked solid but came against lower classed horses but no doubt about the romp in last race though which jockey Gutierrez stays on; Hard to say weather he will like facing tougher but then again Emblem Road did it last year so anything can happen here; One to watch out for heading for home

#13- Had 9 wins from 13 starts last year and all those wins/starts came around the local circuit either at King Khaled or here at King Abdulaziz; These wins were impressive but again like #9 those wins were at much lower classes vs todays competition; Switches jockeys here and looking to get rolling late; Questionable for me

#6- Another Japanese shipper heading into the Saudi Cup with this one getting the job done in the G1 Champions Cup at Chukyo; Ryan moore gets the mount today which boosts the positivity for the connections now; Gets a better post and will try to make the best of it here today; In 2nd and 3rd spots for exotics

#8- Finished 6th in the Dubai WC last year but after that hasn't done too bad since then; This one has raced around this distance before so the experience is there and also the jockey O'Shea stays on again but this will tough to get exicted about this one as this is the toughest challege this year for Remourse; Toss

#4- Here is my boy who got the job done for me last year at a huge price; Has only raced twice since the Saudi Cup but did get a win here last time out; Not the same jockey as he had last year but moreno knows this horse well and has already posted 4 wins with him in this career; Is a much shorter price vs last year but I am hoping this horse can still show that he has got in and will be around late to battle the contenders once again; A big contender

#11- Has shown experience racing in G1 races but hasn't came around to finish well in any of those starts; Has been off since June and the horse has only raced on Turf the whole time like #7 so the connections are having high hopes this one can finish well I just don't see it today; Toss

#2- Winner of the Dubai World Cup last year tries to win the world's richest race for trainer Bob Baffert and will have to work with some quality class horses entered in today; Form has been sharp since the DWC and Dettori stays on from last time out and from Dubai start; Has also been off since Dec 26 Baffert is 29% with those horses coming off 61-180 days of layoff; Dettori can put this horse into a good spot and could upset them all here at hopefully a nice price; Contender

#12- Another local horse which has put up some nice recent racing as of late; Had a 6 race win streak into last race but got broken when he finished 2nd only by 3 1/2 lengths; This one shows almost a exact same pattern as Emblem Road and even though the price is big anything can happen here; In for 2nd and 3rd positons in exotics

#5- Hasn't been able to regroup after the G1 win in April of last year; Sure he has still be racing at that class level but can seem to get any better heading into here; A switch to Lemaire can help but will be tough to back with the form and only having Turf racing now on Dirt today; Toss

#1- Seems like this horse is showing a pattern with a win then poor start so if that rings true then this start won't be good then? Has been off since October and ships in from Japan but getting a top jockey in Moreira can help this ones chances; In for 3rd and 4th slots

Top 4 picks
This one is tough as there is a lot of talented horses in here and would hate to not back Emblem Road in here but unfortunately I have chosen Lagertha Rhyme hoping the same vibes are there like last year as this one has sharp efforts and also patterns like what ER showed last year so here is hoping we can do it again this year at a big price! ; I do have Emblem Road for 2nd as this horse can make a bold move turning for home and would not be surprised if this horse wins again; 3rd choice and 4th choices are Country Grammer and and Taiba

Good luck to everyone playing this race going to be a good one!
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Old 02-25-2023, 09:31 AM   #15
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Small shot on the #6 Pogo in the upcoming R4 Turf Sprint.

Anything near his current 21-1 odds is too enticing for me to pass up
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