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One thing to ponder is this. I believe Santa Anita has a carryover of $273,000 and they are predicting 3 million bet(mandatory payout). Lets say it is 3.5 million bet at what I assume is a 20% takeout (might be even higher). So then you have 700k taken out less the 273k carryover or 427 k takeout on a 3.5 million dollar pool. So that would be a roughly 12% takeout. but you subject yourself to taking on the whales at full force. Big pool, potential big payout, they will be involved. I haven't looked at it, but just using it as an example.
Now if you look at the card and can formulate a very solid play, go for it. But don't kid yourself into thinking because the 8 to 12 % takeout (which is often the case in these mandatory payout situations) taking on the whales is a better option than a 15% takeout with a lot less whale activity. It is not. Pick your spots and use the pick 5, or even pick 6 (or even a higher takeout pick 4) as a tool to take advantage of cards that really appeal to you. Don't let the noise of mandatory payout or carryover or huge pool size suck you into making bad or questionable plays.
FWIW, I am not posting as someone who has used this kind of discipline in the past. I am posting as someone that has for the most part taken a couple of years off from this game, is anxious to get back to playing it and is looking to play it a lot more intelligently when I do. I am sort of thinking out loud.
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