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Old 02-20-2023, 10:52 AM   #16
aaron
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All of us have known people who have accumulated real wealth by working at a really good job...by running a business...or by investing in real estate or the stock market. But how many of us have known anybody who has accumulated real wealth by wagering at the racetrack?
So true. I have known people who made a living betting, but none have accumulated real wealth.
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Old 02-20-2023, 11:16 AM   #17
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I don't know many expert handicappers who spend only 2 hours a day.
With a great computer program it doesn't take long to work a race...it is the betting creation that takes real time
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Old 02-20-2023, 11:20 AM   #18
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With a great computer program it doesn't take long to work a race...it is the betting creation that takes real time
How long does the betting creation take when you have the race "all worked out"?
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Old 02-20-2023, 11:33 AM   #19
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I have a friend who says that he loves the game. He uses an expensive, sophisticated handicapping software which accurately handicaps the race in mere seconds. And yet, he keeps talking to me about getting "burned out" while playing this game, and about how much he hates the "drudgery" of regular horse-betting. And here I am betting almost every day with only the PPs and a $9 Walgreens calculator...and the word "burned out" has never come out of my mouth.

I guess I'll never understand some of these 'hi-tech' players...
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Old 02-20-2023, 12:10 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I have a friend who says that he loves the game. He uses an expensive, sophisticated handicapping software which accurately handicaps the race in mere seconds. And yet, he keeps talking to me about getting "burned out" while playing this game, and about how much he hates the "drudgery" of regular horse-betting. And here I am betting almost every day with only the PPs and a $9 Walgreens calculator...and the word "burned out" has never come out of my mouth.

I guess I'll never understand some of these 'hi-tech' players...
His way probably leads to boredom and losses, a deadly combo.
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Old 02-20-2023, 01:03 PM   #21
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How long does the betting creation take when you have the race "all worked out"?
varies dependent upon the race...I bet exotics, and if the LOGICAL top choice is too low, it is a quick decision just to pass....races with too many maidens are out as well.

One thing for sure, if takes too long, it is a sure sign that I really don't have it worked out.
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Old 02-20-2023, 01:05 PM   #22
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With a great computer program it doesn't take long to work a race...it is the betting creation that takes real time

Does the computer program watch and analyze replays? Does the computer program do paddock inspections? There is a lot of info that needs to be accumulated that a computer program can't do for you.
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Old 02-20-2023, 02:33 PM   #23
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Does the computer program watch and analyze replays? Does the computer program do paddock inspections? There is a lot of info that needs to be accumulated that a computer program can't do for you.
Sometimes better to NOT do that. KISS.
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Old 02-20-2023, 02:41 PM   #24
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I do a LOT of the replay watching, bias analysis, race flow analysis, and note taking soon after the races are run. I also generate automated notes out of my database that get imported straight into my Formulator PPs. When horses run back, my PPs are already full of notes. Despite doing all that work up front, it still sometime takes me as long as 20 minutes to do a thorough job of handicapping a single race if it's a large field. The notes trigger memories and red flags, but I still often have to go back to the charts to see who was in the field and what happened. It's time consuming for me. That's partly why I skip a lot of races also. I try to focus my time on races where I think I might have some value oriented insights and don't both with the ones where it's way less likely.
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Old 02-20-2023, 02:43 PM   #25
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Sometimes better to NOT do that. KISS.
Then I'll always be ahead of you....Thanks for being lazy..
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Old 02-20-2023, 03:03 PM   #26
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was his farther a nudder or was his mudder a mudder no soup for you come back 1 year! how u been replay?
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Old 02-20-2023, 03:37 PM   #27
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I love this game, and I'm trying to make horseplaying a profession.
If I can earn $30,000 a year, I'll be elated. I think most men would feel tremendous stress if that was their income.

It's also a great, great gambling game that allows you to apply intelligence and hard work. Most of life is 'rhetorical', and seldom in life can you be rewarded for having a correct but unpopular opinion. Being 'right' consistently is one of the slices that makes up the horseplaying pizza pie.

Not a 'meritocracy', as it's nearly impossible to beat the takeout, and you are facing syndicates that bet in batches of computer calculations. You are betting against parties privy to inside information that honestly go beyond honest things like opinions of trainers etc...

Short term winning is mostly luck and catching a score. Modest long-term winning is nearly impossible but is the area where skill and fanaticism can at least reward merit, if not 'crowning' merit.

Today is my birthday. I'm 44 years old, and I'll be very happy if I live to 50 and can still think clearly (bonus points for walking, and participating in life to some degree).

As high as I feel about horseplaying, I would NOT choose it, if I had a re-do. I would get a degree or accreditation, such that consistent diligence would pay me, and I could have things like independence and confidence as a man in society.

Horseplaying chose me.

It's hard to believe, but I was reasonably bright as a young person.
I have a genetic mutation and whether that played a role, or whether it was just funky parenting and social groups, I was discouraged from standing out intellectually. My father was very proud of his Master's Degree in mathematics from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (a relatively high ranked university). Rather than continue on, he knocked up my mom and took a department head position teaching math in inner-city Baltimore.
While my father was diligent, and relatively accomplished in mathematics, my mother was more intelligent. As I've grown older, it's been my experience that I have not been exposed to a ton of intellectual women, so in hindsight she was a bit unusual in that regard. It's very likely just my experience as we are told that all races and sexes are the same, with maybe just the slightest difference between men and women due to society.

My father taught be to be a baseball coach. I mastered that, and became a Double-A level hitter and an obssessive compulsive student of the game. Society taught me to be a basketball player and coach. I am 6'9" and I grew up in an area outside of Washington D.C. which has produced many basketball players. I became a division-2 level player, and I mastered the understanding of the game with an obssessive compulsive hunger.
Today I am not healthy enough to be a head coach, but I can help a team or individual players, and I would do that in exchange for pay. I do not have those opportunities, and I don't see them materializing. Basketball has a long-shot chance, if only for the fact that people tend to associate height with basketball. I doubt that I will ever get paid a significant amount for consulting, training, or assistant coaching in Baseball or Basketball.

I did terrible in school. I can blame that my mother was ill during much of my childhood with the same genetic differences that I have health issues because of. I can blame that my father was an alcoholic. I have a plethora of excuses, but it was in fact my fault.
Aside from 'marine biologist' as a child who liked sharks, I also was never prepared or had a drive for any real world job in my life. My father always assumed that I'd get a colllege degree and a job and that he'd be there to help me in life if my health declined.
When the SATs came to to town, I surprisingly had a near perfect score. I had perfect English/Verbal but had missed a few Math questions. In hindsight, had my father spent any time on it with me in preparation (he was a math teacher) I would have had that attractive perfect score.

I was told I had to stop Baseball and Basketball due to my heart conditions. I majored in Biochemistry at a mid-level university. My mother died in a traumatic fashion. I dropped out, and moved to a Florida beach town.
A year later my aorta dissected while I was training at 5:30am for basketball.
I was never able to regain social inclusion after that aortic dissection. Have had 3 open heart surgeries, and can't have a needed fourth due to the danger of the procedure. My brain does not work as well as it did when I was a naive and ignorant young man. It works well enough to think and remember in patterns, which I've obsessively worked on.

I am happy and this is not a sad story, or a 'woe is me' situation. The whole point of this lengthy and personal story is to illustrate that I am in a unique (snowflake? ) situation. I have 20,000 posts or whatever and I feel like I know some of you guys. I ought to give you all a vulnerable-favorite to bet against as payment for this 'therapy.

This game is meant to be a wealth-concentration mechanism that separates the herd from it's money. This game is best experienced as either entertainment (w/ modest spending), or as an exciting intellectual puzzle (with modest spending).
Almost everyone who has any hope of long-term consistent winning, would be well advised to use those skills somewhere else.
Happy Birthday! I hope you have many more.
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Old 02-20-2023, 03:54 PM   #28
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Does the computer program watch and analyze replays? Does the computer program do paddock inspections? There is a lot of info that needs to be accumulated that a computer program can't do for you.
ALL that information is in the database

From being a photo finish cameraman for over 10 years, I found that the rank and file OVER VALUE trouble with this inane belief that having trouble one time will make it a positive run the next...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE of that

MOST individuals have no access to paddock inspection and from being with two experienced trainers looking at that, I found their observation, though accurate, not worth much
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Old 02-20-2023, 04:04 PM   #29
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ALL that information is in the database

From being a photo finish cameraman for over 10 years, I found that the rank and file OVER VALUE trouble with this inane belief that having trouble one time will make it a positive run the next...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE of that

MOST individuals have no access to paddock inspection and from being with two experienced trainers looking at that, I found their observation, though accurate, not worth much
Trouble doesn't mean it will make a positive run next out...but it does mean you can IGNORE that effort and look for a more representative one.
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Old 02-20-2023, 04:09 PM   #30
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I found that the rank and file OVER VALUE trouble with this inane belief that having trouble one time will make it a positive run the next...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE of that
The obvious trouble last out that everyone sees is often overbet, but I think sometimes even subtle trips can be overrated.

How a horse is likely to run today is a function of more than just one race in its PPs.

Let's say in a certain situation a horse's last similar race counts for 50%-60% of what he might do today. Even if you have a somewhat hidden trip in that race worth a few lengths, 40%-50% of what he might do today has nothing to do with that race. So the difference between having that knowledge and not having it is not huge in terms of the probability of winning today. But some people will assume it's huge.
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