Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-17-2023, 10:19 AM   #1
Scamper
Registered User
 
Scamper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2022
Location: Southern CA and Las Vegas
Posts: 105
Things no one tells you

I believe it takes more time and effort
to become a really good handicapper
then it does to get a PhD in college or
to become an expert in real estate or
the stock market.
Scamper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2023, 03:52 PM   #2
Dan Montilion
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 1,014
Damn It! Now you tell me.
__________________
"Your body is not a temple, it's an amusement park. Enjoy the ride."

Anthony Bourdain
Dan Montilion is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2023, 06:05 PM   #3
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,992
All joking aside there is ton a truth to the op and if you really think about it this subject alone is a huge reason why rebates are a horrible idea. I am not getting into the math of rebates again, I have done it 100 times. But what you have to think about is what is the motivation for someone young, that is learning the game to put forth the effort to reach a level of expertise where he can get learn how to beat this game or at least stay somewhat competitive (losing less than 10 % roi which is still likely worse than betting sports) and eventually excel to to the point that he starts to bet serious money and gets rebates of his own.

For a sports bettor that loses 4.5% at random it is not a huge climb to become profitable (not saying it is easy either). But when you are talking about the non rebated losing 20% in wps pools and around 27 to 28% in most other exotic pools, how is someone young ever going to get to a level where beating this game ever looks attainable. 99 out of 100 likely never will. So they either love the sport so much they accept their continual donating (aka compulsive gambling) or the close calls and would of, could of, and should of keeps them around for a while. The final group, which is essentially racing's audience is the entertainment group. They either bet very little (if you bet $100 a day not a big deal if you lose $20 to $30 on average-that is like 1 or 2 units on a black jack table in Vegas and is cheaper than other forms of entertainment) or they have so much money they don't care (but even a lot of these folks will likely transfer over to other forms of gambling that they will eventually realize will offer more bang for the buck).

So when people look at rebates and argue that they are not coming from the pools anyhow, they very much miss the big picture. Rebates coupled with excessive takeout have killed the racing market. As long as the status quo continues the percentage of the young population that finds racing and continue to support the pools in racing is going to be microscopic. There is only one way to change this (eliminate rebates and price racing properly). Otherwise it is a heck of a lot easier to bet on your favorite team and lose 4.5% on the buck than it is to spend years mastering the racing game with hopes you can ever lose less than 10%.
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2023, 06:54 PM   #4
46zilzal
velocitician
 
46zilzal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,295
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scamper View Post
I believe it takes more time and effort
to become a really good handicapper
then it does to get a PhD in college or
to become an expert in real estate or
the stock market.
1st depends upon one's predilection.....Ever know the athlete that is a natural? One of my late friends (a computer genius) picked it up in less than 6 months...He had computer program help however.

second there is no standard curriculum for playing the horses like there is in a PhD program...There is NO road map for newbie to follow.

3rd and MOST IMPORTANTLY, there are MANY good handicappers but only a VERY SMALL percentage who can wager at the same level of competence. One of my mentors, a track handicapper in Canada, stated the obvious to me many years back: "They teach this game completely BACKWARDS. One has to be a competent GAMBLER long before the skills of handicapping arrive."
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
46zilzal is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2023, 07:24 PM   #5
castaway01
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scamper View Post
I believe it takes more time and effort
to become a really good handicapper
then it does to get a PhD in college or
to become an expert in real estate or
the stock market.
Totally not true. It's just that being an "expert" handicapper doesn't mean you'll even make a profit, while if you're a stock market or real estate expert you almost certainly will.

I've known several people who could handicap rings around most, yet they were uncapitalized, or lacked impulse control, or got chewed up by the takeout, late money, and everything else that messes with your mind in this game and makes it not worth playing (or a very expensive hobby). But they could pick horses and break down a race as well as anyone.
castaway01 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2023, 07:38 PM   #6
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01 View Post
Totally not true. It's just that being an "expert" handicapper doesn't mean you'll even make a profit, while if you're a stock market or real estate expert you almost certainly will.

I've known several people who could handicap rings around most, yet they were uncapitalized, or lacked impulse control, or got chewed up by the takeout, late money, and everything else that messes with your mind in this game and makes it not worth playing (or a very expensive hobby). But they could pick horses and break down a race as well as anyone.



Does one really need to be a stock market or real estate "expert" to make a profit? Would be impossible to make a profit long term betting races without expertise in handicapping and/or gambling?
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2023, 07:39 PM   #7
ScottJ
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2022
Posts: 312
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scamper View Post
I believe it takes more time and effort
to become a really good handicapper
then it does to get a PhD in college or
to become an expert in real estate or
the stock market.
Approximately 10,000-12,000 hours of study are required to receive a PhD in STEM disciplines. If you were to spend 2 hours per day handicapping races, this implies more THAN (not then) 13 1/2 years.
ScottJ is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2023, 07:56 PM   #8
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scamper View Post
I believe it takes more time and effort
to become a really good handicapper
then it does to get a PhD in college or
to become an expert in real estate or
the stock market.
The difference is that a PhD can get you a good job...whereas being a "really good handicapper" can't prevent you from going broke.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2023, 08:23 PM   #9
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,285
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottJ View Post
Approximately 10,000-12,000 hours of study are required to receive a PhD in STEM disciplines. If you were to spend 2 hours per day handicapping races, this implies more THAN (not then) 13 1/2 years.

I don't know many expert handicappers who spend only 2 hours a day.
__________________
Best writing advice ever received: Never use a long word when a diminutive one will suffice.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2023, 08:27 PM   #10
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01 View Post
Totally not true. It's just that being an "expert" handicapper doesn't mean you'll even make a profit, while if you're a stock market or real estate expert you almost certainly will.

I've known several people who could handicap rings around most, yet they were uncapitalized, or lacked impulse control, or got chewed up by the takeout, late money, and everything else that messes with your mind in this game and makes it not worth playing (or a very expensive hobby). But they could pick horses and break down a race as well as anyone.
All of us have known people who have accumulated real wealth by working at a really good job...by running a business...or by investing in real estate or the stock market. But how many of us have known anybody who has accumulated real wealth by wagering at the racetrack?
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2023, 09:16 PM   #11
Bustin Stones
Registered User
 
Bustin Stones's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2022
Posts: 783
What would motivate a young person to spend time handicapping?
My view of the big picture is that the practice of handicapping hones a young person's skills to be more effective at other demanding things.
Without disclosing my own career, I'm sure that at each level and trade, I benefited handsomely from the lessons I learned. My questioning of assumptions, learning patience and thinking longer term are examples any young person can benefit from. Even if they never made a dime from wagering.
What I would call the journey of learning to evaluate a race as an event, has so much transference in real world problem solving.
Bustin Stones is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-17-2023, 11:51 PM   #12
P.Rosa
Gambler
 
P.Rosa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2021
Location: Katy Texas
Posts: 539
Handicapping is not the problem, betting is.
There are plenty of people on this forum that handicap & post picks, but never lose a dime betting because they don't gamble.

Here's how my day went at the track today.
I went to the track with my 3 selections for each of 20 races and a plan.

Not being a big money gambler, I decided going to bet $6.00 on each race.
My bets would be a $2.00 exacta key & a $1.00 trifecta key with one horse over the other two.
I had $160.00 in my pocket, my bets would totaled $120.00.

After a couple of races those $40.00 in my pocket started to make me itch.
So I bet some daily double & pick3s with it.
Then I hit a race for $123.00.
Well, of course that money had to also be entered into the pari-mutuel pools.
I hit some more races & lost many more races.

After the betting frenzy was over and churning between $400.00 & $500.00, I ended up with only $80.00.

Had I stuck to my plan I would have finished the day betting $120.00 and cashing $160.00, for a $40.00 profit.

Tomorrow I'm going back to the track and I have a plan.
__________________
$MONEY$
P.Rosa is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2023, 07:38 AM   #13
romankoz
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 101
[QUOTE=Poindexter;2858916]

For a sports bettor that loses 4.5% at random it is not a huge climb to become profitable (not saying it is easy either). But when you are talking about the non rebated losing 20% in wps pools and around 27 to 28% in most other exotic pools,

Am I to assume you have 20% takeouts in the win place show at all tracks or is it here and there? Similar ask about exotic pools?

If so there's no doubt a serious bettor should only be betting on second or third favourites in the USA but ONLY if the favourite is deemed a false favourite on FORM. I highlight FORM as there are favourites that are false prices but should still be the favourite.

We had a perfect example this weekend with Nature Strip, the world's best sprinter ratings wise. He was certainly the right horse to have as favourite but his price a tick over 1/1 ($4 US) was unders.
romankoz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2023, 10:53 AM   #14
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
Post 1 cup of coffee and I'm telling my life story again...

I love this game, and I'm trying to make horseplaying a profession.
If I can earn $30,000 a year, I'll be elated. I think most men would feel tremendous stress if that was their income.

It's also a great, great gambling game that allows you to apply intelligence and hard work. Most of life is 'rhetorical', and seldom in life can you be rewarded for having a correct but unpopular opinion. Being 'right' consistently is one of the slices that makes up the horseplaying pizza pie.

Not a 'meritocracy', as it's nearly impossible to beat the takeout, and you are facing syndicates that bet in batches of computer calculations. You are betting against parties privy to inside information that honestly go beyond honest things like opinions of trainers etc...

Short term winning is mostly luck and catching a score. Modest long-term winning is nearly impossible but is the area where skill and fanaticism can at least reward merit, if not 'crowning' merit.

Today is my birthday. I'm 44 years old, and I'll be very happy if I live to 50 and can still think clearly (bonus points for walking, and participating in life to some degree).

As high as I feel about horseplaying, I would NOT choose it, if I had a re-do. I would get a degree or accreditation, such that consistent diligence would pay me, and I could have things like independence and confidence as a man in society.

Horseplaying chose me.

It's hard to believe, but I was reasonably bright as a young person.
I have a genetic mutation and whether that played a role, or whether it was just funky parenting and social groups, I was discouraged from standing out intellectually. My father was very proud of his Master's Degree in mathematics from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (a relatively high ranked university). Rather than continue on, he knocked up my mom and took a department head position teaching math in inner-city Baltimore.
While my father was diligent, and relatively accomplished in mathematics, my mother was more intelligent. As I've grown older, it's been my experience that I have not been exposed to a ton of intellectual women, so in hindsight she was a bit unusual in that regard. It's very likely just my experience as we are told that all races and sexes are the same, with maybe just the slightest difference between men and women due to society.

My father taught be to be a baseball coach. I mastered that, and became a Double-A level hitter and an obssessive compulsive student of the game. Society taught me to be a basketball player and coach. I am 6'9" and I grew up in an area outside of Washington D.C. which has produced many basketball players. I became a division-2 level player, and I mastered the understanding of the game with an obssessive compulsive hunger.
Today I am not healthy enough to be a head coach, but I can help a team or individual players, and I would do that in exchange for pay. I do not have those opportunities, and I don't see them materializing. Basketball has a long-shot chance, if only for the fact that people tend to associate height with basketball. I doubt that I will ever get paid a significant amount for consulting, training, or assistant coaching in Baseball or Basketball.

I did terrible in school. I can blame that my mother was ill during much of my childhood with the same genetic differences that I have health issues because of. I can blame that my father was an alcoholic. I have a plethora of excuses, but it was in fact my fault.
Aside from 'marine biologist' as a child who liked sharks, I also was never prepared or had a drive for any real world job in my life. My father always assumed that I'd get a colllege degree and a job and that he'd be there to help me in life if my health declined.
When the SATs came to to town, I surprisingly had a near perfect score. I had perfect English/Verbal but had missed a few Math questions. In hindsight, had my father spent any time on it with me in preparation (he was a math teacher) I would have had that attractive perfect score.

I was told I had to stop Baseball and Basketball due to my heart conditions. I majored in Biochemistry at a mid-level university. My mother died in a traumatic fashion. I dropped out, and moved to a Florida beach town.
A year later my aorta dissected while I was training at 5:30am for basketball.
I was never able to regain social inclusion after that aortic dissection. Have had 3 open heart surgeries, and can't have a needed fourth due to the danger of the procedure. My brain does not work as well as it did when I was a naive and ignorant young man. It works well enough to think and remember in patterns, which I've obsessively worked on.

I am happy and this is not a sad story, or a 'woe is me' situation. The whole point of this lengthy and personal story is to illustrate that I am in a unique (snowflake? ) situation. I have 20,000 posts or whatever and I feel like I know some of you guys. I ought to give you all a vulnerable-favorite to bet against as payment for this 'therapy.

This game is meant to be a wealth-concentration mechanism that separates the herd from it's money. This game is best experienced as either entertainment (w/ modest spending), or as an exciting intellectual puzzle (with modest spending).
Almost everyone who has any hope of long-term consistent winning, would be well advised to use those skills somewhere else.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2023, 11:32 AM   #15
Bustin Stones
Registered User
 
Bustin Stones's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2022
Posts: 783
In as much as this thread feels like it is swerving towards philosophy, i'd like to add this.
The takeout that we refer to unhappily is the juice that makes the whole thing possible. So many people are living their dream contributing to the caring for those horses. I believe our contributions are appreciated. And if our contributions paid all the bills we wouldn't need the casino industry to subsidize the sport. And the people who structured those subsidies deserve a vote of thanks as well. Elderly women at slot machines are in some ways financing the horse racing industry.
It may be a little selfish and greedy to consider only how that takeout effects us.
Bustin Stones is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:14 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.