58th SOUTHWEST STAKES

[the little guy]

I don't agree with you about Reincarnate and it's not fair to completely dismiss the wet track as playing some role in his performance. He, along with the winner, are the ones I would be interested in from that race. Things are pretty open right now.

Horses like Arabian Knight are not really my cup of tea, at least from what we've seen so far, as controlling on the front end in uncompetitive races tells you very little about a horse.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I don't think much of Reincarnate. Yet his profile seems to have actually been enhanced by his ho-hum effort in the Rebel. Much is made about him overcoming adversity but IMO we should be asking ourselves why he was flat from the gate and out of position early in the first place. Getting sawed off mid-stretch was dramatic but basically irrelevant. He wasn't going to make a dent on the winner and I don't really think he would have given the runner-up much trouble for the place spot.

He was a hair slower out of the gate than the horses inside and outside of him. They both crossed in front of him. There was some slight bumping and then Velasquez more or less eased behind them and dropped back rather than pushing.

Given the start, I don't have any issue with the fact that he was far back there. We know he has some positional speed. But if you want to consider that a bit of an excuse for his early position and the race, one could also argue it was a blessing in disguise. The race had more than enough speed in it, the fractions were fast, and the horses closest to the pace all ran figures below their latest. So imo he got a terrific pace setup. He also saved a lot of ground considering his position and if anything saving ground was more of a positive than usual that day. The "check" in the stretch probably cost him ~ a length, but he imo wasn't moving best at the time anyway. I don't hate him but he's not on my list of horses to bet back either. It was one of those mixed trips to me.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I don't agree with you about Reincarnate and it's not fair to completely dismiss the wet track as playing some role in his performance. He, along with the winner, are the ones I would be interested in from that race. Things are pretty open right now.

Yeah, I probably should have paid lip service to the wet track. Shows you how in depth my analysis was.

I'm not enamored by the 3yo crop thus far. The best thing I can say is that there are a trio of horses that have at least strung a couple of good races together (Forte, Practical Move, & Instant Coffee).

There will probably be some useless talking points too with this second tier Japanese horse gunning for the SA Derby. And over in Europe, Coolmore has a colt called Cairo that won a Group 3 last season and recently won on an all weather track in one of their "Derby preps" (the Patton Stakes). Horse is supposed to target the UAE Derby next. He's by Quality Road so he at least has some pedigree appeal for the dirt if one hasn't given up on Coolmore coming up with a KY Derby winner at some point.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

He was a hair slower out of the gate than the horses inside and outside of him. They both crossed in front of him. There was some slight bumping and then Velasquez more or less eased behind them and dropped back rather than pushing.

Given the start, I don't have any issue with the fact that he was far back there. We know he has some positional speed. But if you want to consider that a bit of an excuse for his early position and the race, one could also argue it was a blessing in disguise. The race had more than enough speed in it, the fractions were fast, and the horses closest to the pace all ran figures below their latest. So imo he got a terrific pace setup. He also saved a lot of ground considering his position and if anything saving ground was more of a positive than usual that day. The "check" in the stretch probably cost him ~ a length, but he imo wasn't moving best at the time anyway. I don't hate him but he's not on my list of horses to bet back either. It was one of those mixed trips to me.

I can't get over the fact that Baffert started that horse on the turf in his first two races. I guess he didn't embarrass himself in the Rebel as I thought he wouldn't do much after exposing National Treasure in the Sham.

In general it's hard to get excited about many of these with the failure of their connections to firmly commit to a certain series of prep races. One race at Santa Anita, one race at Oaklawn, maybe the Blue Grass next or maybe the Arkansas Derby.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Wouldn't you think he's probably more likely pointing Cave Rock to the Woody Stephens?

They're getting aggressive with Cave Rock very quickly.

Worked twice 5 days apart (Mar 4 & Mar 9), both sub-:59 5 furlong works.

Bay Shore still on the Wood undercard?

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

They're getting aggressive with Cave Rock very quickly.

Worked twice 5 days apart (Mar 4 & Mar 9), both sub-:59 5 furlong works.

Bay Shore still on the Wood undercard?

Yes

[cj]

Twitter

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by cj

https://twitter.com/ZedanRacing/stat...74102861905923

VEKOMA called and said man I've never seen a good horse paddle wheel that badly!

[Someday Silent]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

VEKOMA called and said man I've never seen a good horse paddle wheel that badly!

I wonder how fast AK paddles his way to the breeding shed.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

VEKOMA called and said man I've never seen a good horse paddle wheel that badly!

Twitter

Seriously, I'm disappointed, and hope he's back strong ( although it would be odd if his strong comeback was in the Preakness ).

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

They're getting aggressive with Cave Rock very quickly.

Worked twice 5 days apart (Mar 4 & Mar 9), both sub-:59 5 furlong works.

Cave Rock worked 7 furlongs the other day at Santa Anita, signaling a possible entry sooner rather than later.

He's nominated to the Hot Springs, a one mile race for 3yos on the Arkansas Derby undercard.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Cave Rock worked 7 furlongs the other day at Santa Anita, signaling a possible entry sooner rather than later.

He's nominated to the Hot Springs, a one mile race for 3yos on the Arkansas Derby undercard.

Interesting.

Possible Preakness? Obviously a very talented horse.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Interesting.

Possible Preakness? Obviously a very talented horse.

Wouldn't be a surprise, but Baffert would have to probably shoe horn in another race if he was going to target the Preakness. The only reasonable follow-up race is the Bath House Row (I think formerly called the Oaklawn Stakes) on April 22, but a 3-week turnaround is like Oscar Barrera-style management nowadays.

Perhaps the plan is a slow build-up to the Haskell. There's races like the Peter Pan, Dwyer, Sir Barton, or Los Al Derby in between.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

He was a hair slower out of the gate than the horses inside and outside of him. They both crossed in front of him. There was some slight bumping and then Velasquez more or less eased behind them and dropped back rather than pushing.

Given the start, I don't have any issue with the fact that he was far back there. We know he has some positional speed. But if you want to consider that a bit of an excuse for his early position and the race, one could also argue it was a blessing in disguise. The race had more than enough speed in it, the fractions were fast, and the horses closest to the pace all ran figures below their latest. So imo he got a terrific pace setup. He also saved a lot of ground considering his position and if anything saving ground was more of a positive than usual that day. The "check" in the stretch probably cost him ~ a length, but he imo wasn't moving best at the time anyway. I don't hate him but he's not on my list of horses to bet back either. It was one of those mixed trips to me.

We all see films differently. IMO what you called a check was a damn site more than that.

I thought he had menacing forward momentum. Then Mickaelle Michelle who has been trying entirely too hard the whole meet lost control of her mount BOURBON BASH and almost dropped REINCARNATE. To recover at all and re-rally shows me there's talent there. And who's to say he wasn't struggling with the track in the first place?

I spoke to Johnny V after the races. He said he thought he was going down.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Wouldn't be a surprise, but Baffert would have to probably shoe horn in another race if he was going to target the Preakness. The only reasonable follow-up race is the Bath House Row (I think formerly called the Oaklawn Stakes) on April 22, but a 3-week turnaround is like Oscar Barrera-style management nowadays.

Perhaps the plan is a slow build-up to the Haskell. There's races like the Peter Pan, Dwyer, Sir Barton, or Los Al Derby in between.

I think you're right. Feels like a summer campaign with a build up to the fall and Breeder's Cup.

His loss to Forte in the BC Juvy wasn't bad. Forte is obviously a very very good horse.