MLB Picks 2023

[Half Smoke]

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decided he's worthy of having his own thread instead of going back and forth


he's 7-3 since 3/17


reddit guy potd:


Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres over 7


right now vegasinsider.com is showing 6 books paying +105 to +115 on that bet


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[Half Smoke]

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7-3-1 since 3/17


Toronto Raptors -2.5 over Miami Heat


only 1 book shows 2.5 now - MGM - all of the others show 3


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[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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7-3-1 since 3/17


Toronto Raptors -2.5 over Miami Heat


only 1 book shows 2.5 now - MGM - all of the others show 3


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Won by daylight (14 points)

New record 8-3-1

Sorry for intruding saw that he had this game picked so minds well help out here with the result

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Won by daylight (14 points)

New record 8-3-1

Sorry for intruding saw that he had this game picked so minds well help out here with the result

any and all comments are welcome


Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs over 7


looks like a bettor can get even money at a couple of books and -105 at others


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[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

any and all comments are welcome


Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs over 7


looks like a bettor can get even money at a couple of books and -105 at others


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Ok thanks just didn't want to take over that's all lol

I am going to fade his pick here as I think it will just be Under 7 goals

[CheckMark]

I know the game has already started but here are the predictions from my spreadsheet

Team OffRat DefRat FinRat ProjLine ProjTot
FLA 3.39 3.74 -0.17
TOR 3.56 2.89 0.66 0.83 6.8

I project that Toronto wins by 0.83 points and the Total will be 6.8

I do these projections for all sports except soccer just Pro and College Sports I am practising on

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

I know the game has already started but here are the predictions from my spreadsheet

Team OffRat DefRat FinRat ProjLine ProjTot
FLA 3.39 3.74 -0.17
TOR 3.56 2.89 0.66 0.83 6.8

I project that Toronto wins by 0.83 points and the Total will be 6.8

I do these projections for all sports except soccer just Pro and College Sports I am practising on

Well I didn’t mean to come in here and bash the guy but didn’t think these 2 teams would go over tonight as they only scored 5 goals on a Panthers 3-2 win in OT.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

I am going to fade his pick here as I think it will just be Under 7 goals

nice call


this time I'm including a link to his page so anyone can see his analysis which is usually quite lengthy -


he's 8-4-1


potd:


Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (runline) over Detroit Tigers


he doesn't say the odds but it's about -105___________glta



https://www.reddit.com/user/HSRiddles/


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[Half Smoke]

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some other thoughts re the run line in baseball
it might seem obvious but the home team will not bat in the 9th if they are ahead - 12% less chance to score runs
the home team will win by 2 or more only 39% of the time while the road fave will win by 2 or more 44% of the time

per the link - underdogs will win or cover on the run line 61% of the time at home and 56% of the time on the road


https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/gu...ins%20by%20one

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[Half Smoke]

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too late to edit my mistake

in the above post I meant to say "the home fave will win by 2 or more only 39% of the time" not "the home team"

in this instance by taking the run line his odds went from about -240 to about -105 - his payout if a win will be well more than double that on a straight bet


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[lamboguy]

i saw that most of the legal sports books are charging 20 cent lines, Wynnbet is 15 cents and the Westgate is using a 10 cent line. i used to get 5 cent lines out there and still lost!

[Half Smoke]

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9-4-1 since 3/17


potd:


Houston Rockets -4.5 (he says up to 5) over Detroit Pistons


this will be a raging battle between 2 pathetically horrible teams both of whom have been eliminated from the playoffs


enjoy - both - 4.5 and -5 show as being currently available


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[Half Smoke]

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10-4-1 since 3/17


potd:


FAU vs. SDS under 132.5 (down to 131.5)


currently several books show at 132 and 131.5


just looked at SDSU's last 10 games

they've held opponents to an average of 57.7 p.p.g.


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[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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10-4-1 since 3/17


potd:


FAU vs. SDS under 132.5 (down to 131.5)


currently several books show at 132 and 131.5


just looked at SDSU's last 10 games

they've held opponents to an average of 57.7 p.p.g.


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Crap I have the Over in this game.

One of us will be right

[lamboguy]

if that game stays under, FAU should win it, the points would be insurance!