Espinoza blow It? CC Breeders Cup Cl - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

JustRalph · 11-06-2016, 12:21 AM

I've watched the replay several times

I think Victor got his horse beaten. He should have been all out earlier and maybe his horse would have gotten into a better rhythm.

Look at the demeanor of Smith and Arrogate and the "all out" rhythm they got into in the last 1/16th. Compare that with Espinoza standing half way up, etc.

I think he thought he had it won. Not today........

horses4courses · 11-06-2016, 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I've watched the replay several times

I think Victor got his horse beaten. He should have been all out earlier and maybe his horse would have gotten into a better rhythm.

Look at the demeanor of Smith and Arrogate and the "all out" rhythm they got into in the last 1/16th. Compare that with Espinoza standing half way up, etc.

I think he thought he had it won. Not today........

The pace was fast.
Two excellent horses, and one came up half a length short.
Could Espinoza have ridden a different race to get the win?
Possibly, but we'll never know, and it's hardly worth discussing.

EMD4ME · 11-06-2016, 12:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I've watched the replay several times

I think Victor got his horse beaten. He should have been all out earlier and maybe his horse would have gotten into a better rhythm.

Look at the demeanor of Smith and Arrogate and the "all out" rhythm they got into in the last 1/16th. Compare that with Espinoza standing half way up, etc.

I think he thought he had it won. Not today........

I am kinda happy he lost but calling a spade a spade, it was a piss poor ride on a horse getting the ultimate trip.

This is why I hate it when people shout accollades to all these average joe shmos.

They're not perfect, not anywhere near it.

I had the winner but how stupid and dense was Castellano on Flintshire from the 3/4 to the 1/2?

SuperPickle · 11-06-2016, 01:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Ever the shit stirrer.........

The pace was fast.
Two excellent horses, and one came up half a length short.
Could Espinoza have ridden a different race to get the win?
Possibly, but we'll never know, and it's hardly worth discussing.

The only exception I take is with the fast pace. He was on a clear lead to a :47 half. Also it was a two horse race with the other horse stalking. Considering there was no threat from behind and the track organically favors speed he got his trip and then some. The pace was not fast.

He got beat by a better horse and a better rider.

In terms of legacy Crome was one of the top horses of his time. A great horse? Absolutely not.

WJ47 · 11-06-2016, 01:19 AM

I think he blew it. Twitter was so funny with many critiques of his ride.

PaceAdvantage · 11-06-2016, 01:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Possibly, but we'll never know, and it's hardly worth discussing.

I'll be sure to have every post made here forwarded to your email address for you to review and approve before it goes live.

GMB@BP · 11-06-2016, 01:17 AM

Its so easy to be critical after the race....top of the stretch chrome was 1/5 to win that race with that trip...he got beat by a better horse.

Also, Victor never looks good in the saddle, saying he is not the most fluid of riders is not something that means much in regard to this race.

JustRalph · 11-06-2016, 01:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I'll be sure to have every post made here forwarded to your email address for you to review and approve before it goes live.

I saw his original post before your edit. The usual BS, as he continues to stalk me. He a loser.

The more I watch the replay, the more I think Espinoza blew it. In spite of H4C's pace comment, it was not a fast pace for Chrome. If Espinoza had been riding him all out from the top of the turn, I think he wins

PaceAdvantage · 11-06-2016, 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustRalph

I saw his original post before your edit. The usual BS, as he continues to stalk me. He a loser.

The more I watch the replay, the more I think Espinoza blew it. In spite of H4C's pace comment, it was not a fast pace for Chrome. If Espinoza had been riding him all out from the top of the turn, I think he wins

His pace advantage was negated by Espinoza in the stretch then, turning it into an even matchup. Don't forget how wide Arrogate was on the turns...no way is anyone going to tell me Arrogate had a better trip...

menifee · 11-06-2016, 02:51 AM

Once Arrogate didn't go, I thought VE's mistake was not setting a fast pace and forcing Arrogate to keep up in the early part of the race. I expected quicker fractions.

I've watched a lot of racing and I think the worst thing you can do when you are quality speed is to not use it if the race is longer than your horse's ideal distance. I've always thought of Chrome as being best at a mile and an eighth (though he has won plenty at a mile and quarter). He needed to bottom out that field. If you slow your horse down up front and let Arrogate gallop comfortably behind you then you are turning the race into an all out sprint in the last quarter which is not Chrome's best quarter. If he goes early, then he forces Arrogate to chase at a high speed and pass in the stretch which is extremely hard to do.

I'm not sure it made a difference, perhaps Arrogate is the better horse right now, but I would be curious to see that race if Arrogate was forced to keep up early.

Rex Phinney · 11-06-2016, 03:22 AM

BS on the ride.

Chrome is not a sustained grinder type horse, he is a blaster. He holds the lead or lingers within a length of the lead and has a blast of a run usually good for one furlong.

Watch his races, never in a 10 furlong race has he been able to carry his speed to the line, even when he has won it was because the cannon blast buried the field, not because he stayed on with it. Always he was slowing by the time he hit the wire.

The idea he could start doing his best running a half mile from the wire and win against a field like this one at 10 furlongs is crazy.

depalma113 · 11-06-2016, 07:48 AM

Chrome had one shot to hold off Arrogate and Espinoza knew it. He waited until the last possible second to ask for everything Chrome had. Chrome gave it to him. He ran the race of his life.

classhandicapper · 11-06-2016, 07:53 AM

I rarely complain about a ride, but I didn't really like the ride on CC either (I had no bet in the race).

First, I didn't see much of a sign the rail was bad yesterday (pending review of the card), yet Espinoza had him well out on the track while loose on the lead on the second turn. Why? He ran over 20 feet further than Frosted and Hoppertunity. One of the reasons speed is dangerous even though the horse is being used harder early is that you get to save ground.

Second, the one advantage CC has always had against other Grade 1 horses is his turn of foot. He's simply a lot quicker than most horses. I think the correct move would have been to use him at the top of the stretch to open up 2-3 lengths instead of waiting until the 1/8th pole to get into him. Maybe it wouldn't have made a difference. It might have even been worse. But I'd rather open up once you get to the top of the stretch than wait until the 1/8th pole and keep the potentially better finisher in the game.

Robert Fischer · 11-06-2016, 08:03 AM

Chrome got an easy lead, set reasonable fractions and fired his 'A' race.

The rest is trivial minutiae. Trifling, even.

Arrogate ran 17 more feet of ground, had to manage a few paths on the turn, and finished his final furlong in under 12 seconds.

Espinoza's ride was fine. He gets somewhere between an A- and an A+ for the ride.

Mike Smith's finish was pretty good. Inside Melatonin, and then back outside Chrome. We can quibble about his early position, when we've had enough of the petty banter about Espinoza. Mike gets somewhere between an A- and an A+ as well.

This was a high quality race and two good horses ran huge, and the better horse, won.

classhandicapper · 11-06-2016, 08:03 AM

I have one comment on the pace. I don't think the pace was fast relative to the outstanding final time, but I think it was fast compared to the norms/PAR for Grade 1 horses the way that track was playing. That's why the other horses that were close stopped so badly.

Melatonin ran a final figure of 96.

Frosted ran a 91.

Effinex ran a an 84.

They didn't ALL just happen to run bad races in a race they were aiming for. They all got used up chasing CC because he was motoring at a much higher level than they are capable of - on a track that would not carry them.

That's not the race flow of a race with a soft pace. It's the race flow of a solid pace relative to the surface yesterday with only 2 horses good enough to handle it.