Long on Morning Line

[Aner]

Long on Morning Line

I intent to choose 100 plays that are 10:1 or higher on the morning line (before scratches). Goal is to show a profit.

Success in this odds range is not easy. In Dave's "Percentages and Probabilities, 2012" from Chart #176, he splits the morning line into two groups: front half (the lower odds) and rear half (higher odds). Based on over 300,000 races had you bet every horse in the rear half, you would have hit 4.6% of the time with a $net of $1.37 (loss of 31%).

Anyway, here goes.

9/1/12

Sar 4-----#5 Channel the Green
Sar 5-----#4 Avenging Spirit
Sar 10---#7 Cease

Dmr 8----#6 With a Miracle

AP 6-----#3 Windy City Richie
AP 8-----#4 Broadway Cal
AP 9-----#12 Sir Kipling
AP 11---#8 King Rootin Tootin

[Aner]

Originally Posted by Aner

Long on Morning Line

I intent to choose 100 plays that are 10:1 or higher on the morning line (before scratches). Goal is to show a profit.

Success in this odds range is not easy. In Dave's "Percentages and Probabilities, 2012" from Chart #176, he splits the morning line into two groups: front half (the lower odds) and rear half (higher odds). Based on over 300,000 races had you bet every horse in the rear half, you would have hit 4.6% of the time with a $net of $1.37 (loss of 31%).

Anyway, here goes.

9/1/12

Sar 4-----#5 Channel the Green
Sar 5-----#4 Avenging Spirit
Sar 10---#7 Cease

Dmr 8----#6 With a Miracle

AP 6-----#3 Windy City Richie
AP 8-----#4 Broadway Cal
AP 9-----#12 Sir Kipling
AP 11---#8 King Rootin Tootin

0/8 = -$160 for the day.

[Aner]

09/02/12

Sar 3--- #2 Cameron Canyon
Sar 5--- #5 Believe in Betty
Sar 6--- #5 Annelle
Sar 11--- #8 Frazzie
Dmr 2--- #11 Honour Family
Dmr 6--- #8 Wild Dude

[Jay Trotter]

Good luck Aner

[Aner]

Originally Posted by Aner

09/02/12

Sar 3--- #2 Cameron Canyon
Sar 5--- #5 Believe in Betty-----placed
Sar 6--- #5 Annelle
Sar 11--- #8 Frazzie
Dmr 2--- #11 Honour Family-----showed
Dmr 6--- #8 Wild Dude-----------placed

For day: 0/6 = $120 loss
Overall: 0/14 = $280 loss

[Aner]

09/03/12

Sar 5--- #10 Blondecat
Sar 7--- #6 Evasive Cat
Sar 11--- #6 Dendrite
AP 6--- #7 Huntgoddness
AP 7--- #4 Honor Indeed
AP 9--- #10 Moonshine Mullin
AP 10--- #2 Klipit
Dmr 6--- #2 Somethingabouther
Dmr 10--- #12 Fabulous Fit
Dmr 11--- #7 Anne's Seven Cats

[Aner]

09/03/12

15 Sar5--- #10 Blondecat
16 Sar 7--- #6 Evasive Cat
17 Sar 11--- #6 Dendrite
18 AP 6--- #7 Huntgoddness------- showed
19 AP 7--- #4 Honor Indeed
20 AP 9--- #10 Moonshine Mullin
21 AP 10--- #2 Klipit------------------ showed
22 Dmr 6--- #2 Somethingabouther
23 Dmr 10--- #12 Fabulous Fit------- won--- $222
24 Dmr 11--- #7 Anne's Seven Cats

For the day: 1/10--- +$22 profit

Overall: 1/24------- -($258) loss

[Aner]

09/05/12

25 Dmr 2--- #3 Green Team
26 Dmr 7--- #2 Bet On Victor
27 GG 5--- #5 Brite Judy
28 GG 6--- #2 Awesome Mike

[Track Phantom]

Love your angle here. I hope you stick with it.

For the record, here are my 10-1 or higher snuffs at DMR for 9-5-12:
Race 2: #3 Green Team (12-1)
Race 6: #6 Boxeur Des Rues (20-1)
Race 7: #7 El Vino (10-1)

http://www.trackphantom.com/Racing12.html

[Aner]

09/05/12

25 Dmr 2--- #3 Green Team
26 Dmr 7--- #2 Bet On Victor------ showed
27 GG 5--- #5 Brite Judy
28 GG 6--- #2 Awesome Mike


For day: 0/4 = ($80) loss

Overall: 1/28 = ($338) loss

[Aner]

09/08/12

29 Bel 5--- #10 Flattermewithroses
30 Bel 6--- #4 Dual Citizen
31 Bel 7--- #12 Papa Tom
32 Bel 9--- #1 El Corriente
33 LaD 7--- #5 Lover of Art
34 LaD 9 ---#6 Unbridled's Score
35 LaD 11--- #5 Lonnie Bell
36 LaD 13--- #2 France's Idol
37 Fpx 4 ---#10 Eighteenhundrednme
38 Fpx 6--- #8 Own It
39 Fpx 8--- #4 My Bashert
40 Fpx 11--- #2 Lethal Intent

[Capper Al]

Aner,

You might narrow your scope and add a horse that also gets a mention in the DRF consensus. You won't play many but you'll stand a better change.

Good Luck

[Aner]

Originally Posted by Aner

09/08/12

29 Bel 5--- #10 Flattermewithroses----2nd at 48:1
30 Bel 6--- #4 Dual Citizen
31 Bel 7--- #12 Papa Tom
32 Bel 9--- #1 El Corriente
33 LaD 7--- #5 Lover of Art
34 LaD 9 ---#6 Unbridled's Score
35 LaD 11--- #5 Lonnie Bell
36 LaD 13--- #2 France's Idol
xx Fpx 4 ---#10 Eighteenhundrednme----scratched
37 Fpx 6--- #8 Own It------------------won =$532
38 Fpx 8--- #4 My Bashert-------------placed
39 Fpx 11--- #2 Lethal Intent

For the day: 1/11 = $312 profit
Overall: 2/39 = ($28) loss

[Aner]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Aner,

You might narrow your scope and add a horse that also gets a mention in the DRF consensus. You won't play many but you'll stand a better change.

Good Luck

Hi Al,

Many years ago I was introduced to a long shot system called the "dirty shirt". You looked at all the DRF handicappers picks and if one had a horse in his top three that was not mentioned by any other, it was the"dirty shirt". Haven't thought about this for a long time and have never tested it out. If time permits, I'll check to see if this will improve my results.

Aner

[Aner]

09/09/12

40 Bel 5--- #7 Barnards Galaxy
41 Bel 6--- #4 Freedom Rings
42 Bel 7--- #1 Wickapecko
43 Bel 7--- #6 Ol Donyo
44 Bel 9--- #2 Supsa
45 Bel 9--- #6 African Jazz
46 AP 2--- #4 Zap'em
47 AP 3--- #3 I Turned Outlaw
48 AP 6--- #4 Georgie My Boy
49 AP 8---#9 Gimme a Double
50 AP 9--- #6 Payton's Wildcat
51 Fpx 5--- #8 JM's Golden Legacy
52 Fpx 6---#6 Quiet Advice