The Belmont 6/6/09

[Mazerati]

#7 Mine That Bird
with
#2 Dunkirk
#1 Chocolate Candy
#6 Charitable Man

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Mazerati

#7 Mine That Bird
with
#2 Dunkirk
#1 Chocolate Candy
#6 Charitable Man

# 6 Charitable Man
# 2 Dunkirk
They're still searching for Calvin and the Bird with flash lights.

[Overlay]

Mine That Bird
Charitable Man
Dunkirk

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Mine That Bird
Charitable Man
Dunkirk

No offense, but aren't those the 3 M/L Favorites in order?

[canleakid]

MINE THAT BIRD
------------------------------------- ---------------------
CHOCOLATE CANDY / DUNKIRK / SUMMER BIRD

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by justin13892002

No offense, but aren't those the 3 M/L Favorites in order?

Yes, but despite their low-odds status, I rate Mine That Bird and Charitable Man as the only two overlays in the field (based on the morning line). A lot of people will probably discard them without a second look while shopping for a price, but, to me, when a horse offers both wagering value and a high chance of winning, that's a real opportunity. (No offense taken, by the way.)

[slew101]

I'm chasing with my underneath picks.

7. Mine That Bird
5. Luv Gov.
4. Summer Bird

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by Overlay

Yes, but despite their low-odds status, I rate Mine That Bird and Charitable Man as the only two overlays in the field (based on the morning line). A lot of people will probably discard them without a second look while shopping for a price, but, to me, when a horse offers both wagering value and a high chance of winning, that's a real opportunity. (No offense taken, by the way.)

According to the latest real-time odds, the two horses in the field being held above my fair values are Charitable Man (2-1, currently at 5-1) and Brave Victory (15-1, currently at 27-1).

[harness2008]

Charitable Man from start to finish

[Dave Schwartz]

Here are my selections:

7-6-8

From a betting standpoint, #8 is the most likely best bet. I will bet against the #7.

Prg    Odds   Bet
  2   12.83    12
  4   19.75     8
  6    2.19    55
  8    9.38    17
 10   19.75     8
              ---
              100

Total Bet= 78 (18)
   Combo     Bet  Pct    $Net  Gr    Proj     Pay   Unit$
2) 02-08      $2    0   $2.40  A     $828              $2
2) 04-06      $2    2   $4.45  A+    $219              $2
2) 04-07      $2    2   $3.51  A+    $166              $2
2) 04-08      $2    2  $10.38  A+    $577              $2
2) 06-04      $4    5   $4.45  A+     $98              $2
1) 06-08     $10    6   $3.54  A+     $58              $3
2) 06-10      $4    6   $6.12  A+    $110              $2
2) 07-04      $4    5   $3.51  A+     $65              $3
1) 07-08     $10    7   $2.79  A+     $38              $5
2) 07-10      $4    7   $4.82  A+     $72              $3
2) 08-02      $2    1   $2.40  A     $180              $2
2) 08-04      $2    3  $10.38  A+    $363              $2
1) 08-06     $10    4   $3.54  A+     $82              $2
1) 08-07     $10    5   $2.79  A+     $61              $3
2) 08-10      $2    3  $14.29  A+    $415              $2
2) 10-06      $2    3   $6.12  A+    $178              $2
2) 10-07      $4    4   $4.82  A+    $133              $2
2) 10-08      $2    3  $14.29  A+    $480              $2