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Old 10-29-2021, 02:02 AM   #1
teddy
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Software Idea

I would like a daily print out of any horse under 3 to one that has very bad trainer angles such as

first after a claim.... 34 starters...3 winners .. .29 roi.

print out so that I can find bad favorites or low odds morning line horses


Just an idea
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Old 10-29-2021, 02:39 AM   #2
acorn54
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well if you want it bad enough, there are already software programs for sale that can do what you want, but none of them cost the price of pretzel.
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Old 10-29-2021, 09:07 AM   #3
geroge.burns99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy View Post
I would like a daily print out of any horse under 3 to one that has very bad trainer angles such as

first after a claim.... 34 starters...3 winners .. .29 roi.

print out so that I can find bad favorites or low odds morning line horses


Just an idea
A quick idea is to give Norcalgreg "Pace-View" a call....

He just came out with his new program Speed Demons

Maybe his programmer can do a reverse of what he provides for Greg...

Just a thought..

Mike
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Old 10-29-2021, 09:58 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy View Post
I would like a daily print out of any horse under 3 to one that has very bad trainer angles such as

first after a claim.... 34 starters...3 winners .. .29 roi.

print out so that I can find bad favorites or low odds morning line horses


Just an idea
You can see all of that in several programs already.

I might think that your idea was probably good in the 80's. But with Super Trainers and form reversals with the crooks, you are going to get burned many times making your printout useless
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Old 10-29-2021, 01:31 PM   #5
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You can see all of that in several programs already.

I might think that your idea was probably good in the 80's. But with Super Trainers and form reversals with the crooks, you are going to get burned many times making your printout useless
Aside from what you mentioned, the nature of TStats has always been how difficult it is to properly apply the statistics.

It's just so difficult to decipher the GO signs from the STOP signs.


The big challenges (for a programmer) would be the collection of a massive amount of data (to build the many trainer stats) and the programmability by the end user to select which angles they want to use.

Even more - the idea that those angles would be modifiable.

IOW, this is not trivial programming.

(This part is not meant as a commercial)
In HSH, we have very robust trainer stats. Most are angles the handicapper has never seen before anywhere.

Best example being Performance Stats
Specifically, stuff like "How does the trainer do when his horse is RANKED 1st (or 2nd,3rd,FH,RH) for speed rating in the last race? (or best-of-last-2, BL3, BL4, Avg2, Avg3, etc.)
They are also "programmable," so that you can use or not use whatever you want, including IVs, $Nets, PIV, total wins, "trying ratio" (i.e. Does this horse look like the trainer is trying today?)

As I recall, this was roughly 150-200 hours of programming for me.

Definitely does not lend itself to be anything remotely close to "pretzel pricing." LOL
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Old 10-29-2021, 11:53 PM   #6
NorCalGreg
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Neg Trainer ROI Report SA 10-29

Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99 View Post
A quick idea is to give Norcalgreg "Pace-View" a call....

He just came out with his new program Speed Demons

Maybe his programmer can do a reverse of what he provides for Greg...

Just a thought..

Mike
Steve, my programmer extraordinaire...and I were discussing Teddy's post. The first thought was--what parameters would you need to start? See...if you simply look for trainers with a negative ROI, that's not workable. Some "logo" trainers, as Mark Cramer calls them, are so overbet just on name alone--they may show a 35% win rate-but a neg ROI.

We didn't pursue it any further...but this is a total clusterf____, with just -ROI's. I'm thinking max 10% win, and 20 races min could work...but who knows? Here's what it looked like today for SA


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Old 10-30-2021, 12:24 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy View Post
I would like a daily print out of any horse under 3 to one that has very bad trainer angles such as

first after a claim.... 34 starters...3 winners .. .29 roi.

print out so that I can find bad favorites or low odds morning line horses


Just an idea
First question is what data are you currently working from?
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Old 10-30-2021, 02:58 AM   #8
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I use htr. ...
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Old 10-30-2021, 03:03 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Steve, my programmer extraordinaire...and I were discussing Teddy's post. The first thought was--what parameters would you need to start? See...if you simply look for trainers with a negative ROI, that's not workable. Some "logo" trainers, as Mark Cramer calls them, are so overbet just on name alone--they may show a 35% win rate-but a neg ROI.

We didn't pursue it any further...but this is a total clusterf____, with just -ROI's. I'm thinking max 10% win, and 20 races min could work...but who knows? Here's what it looked like today for SA


So the plan would be to dutch the other horses in the race with good angles. Positive roi,and play against the overbet losing roi horses. Clearly there is some dead money in there. Just an idea.....always trying something... Lots of trainers win high percentage but are .50 roi. Big payoffs when you bet against them. If you have the other legit horses.
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Old 10-30-2021, 03:06 AM   #10
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So the plan would be to dutch the other horses in the race with good angles. Positive roi,and play against the overbet losing roi horses. Clearly there is some dead money in there. Just an idea.....always trying something... Lots of trainers win high percentage but are .50 roi. Big payoffs when you bet against them. If you have the other legit horses.
The low ROI and low win percentage and low starting odds are the key to the bet ! You might find 3 a day.
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Old 10-30-2021, 09:40 AM   #11
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I use htr. ...
Teddy....if your using HTR

Your can benefit from Access than the Robot....

I too have HTR and have better play creation than Robot can do

mike
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Old 10-30-2021, 12:50 PM   #12
teddy
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Originally Posted by geroge.burns99 View Post
Teddy....if your using HTR

Your can benefit from Access than the Robot....

I too have HTR and have better play creation than Robot can do

mike
What is Access. I have 100 spot plays and they are usually pretty good at finding winners. I have now 3 spots for bad trainers. I so far see if I play races that have say 4 spot plays in them for winners and the race has the loser plays in it I can get higher returns because of dead money on the bad trainer horses.

Make sense to anyone?? The dead money makes it profitable. I exclude any horses over 10 to one ML. bet the rest and take my 8 percent rebate. I can do a test to and run it on here for fun.. We will see I see large payoffs in the races with the high percentage trainers with low roi.

Last edited by teddy; 10-30-2021 at 12:54 PM. Reason: I
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Old 10-30-2021, 02:12 PM   #13
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access

Where do you get the data for download into access?
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Old 10-30-2021, 02:34 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Steve, my programmer extraordinaire...and I were discussing Teddy's post. The first thought was--what parameters would you need to start? See...if you simply look for trainers with a negative ROI, that's not workable. Some "logo" trainers, as Mark Cramer calls them, are so overbet just on name alone--they may show a 35% win rate-but a neg ROI.

We didn't pursue it any further...but this is a total clusterf____, with just -ROI's. I'm thinking max 10% win, and 20 races min could work...but who knows? Here's what it looked like today for SA


can i get this printout from your program??
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Old 10-30-2021, 03:22 PM   #15
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can i get this printout from your program??
Sorry, no Teddy...we considered doing an upgrade with this negative report included, but we can't figure out any viable, mechanical way of producing solid winners (or eliminating losers)
Also, the cost (as Dave mentioned) would be prohibitive.

We do have the Positive Trainer Angles Report, that is producing winners regularly.

-NCG
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