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Old 10-13-2021, 02:01 PM   #31
Rex Phinney
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Originally Posted by 46zilzal View Post
Pointing to a statistical OUTLIER does not reflect the overall situation...Learned that from Malcom Gladwell's great book by the same name.

The hospitalization rate among fully vaccinated people with COVID-19 ranged from effectively zero (0.00%) in California, Delaware, D.C., Indiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Vermont, and Virginia to 0.06% in Arkansas. (Note: Hospitalization may or may not have been due to COVID-19.)

The rates of death among fully vaccinated people with COVID-19 were even lower, effectively zero (0.00%) in all but two reporting states, Arkansas and Michigan where they were 0.01%. (Note: Deaths may or may not have been due to COVID-19.)

from https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/cov...om-the-states/
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About 436,711 people have been fully vaccinated in Vermont. The breakthrough cases represent a small portion, about 0.3%, of the fully vaccinated population.

Since January 2021, 6.5% of cases among Vermont residents have been fully vaccinated.

There have been 30 hospitalizations and 10 deaths among the 1,209 cases of vaccine breakthrough in Vermont. that is 0.00827 of the total.

Meanwhile, the age range of COVID cases has shifted in August. Now in August, cases are most prevalent in the 30-39 age group (55.8 per 100,000) and 0-9 (53.2/100K). But overall since the start of the pandemic, the 20-29 age group has by far the most cases (65.9/100K) followed by 10-19 (55.3/100K) and 30-39 (51.2/100K). The 0-9 age group is at 36.5 per 100K. Those under 12 are still ineligible to receive any vaccine.

The VDH did not offer an explanation of why there was been a shift in cases in August.

from https://vermontbiz.com/news/2021/aug...vid-deaths-275
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Originally Posted by 46zilzal View Post
From the quoted inital article " just eight of the 33 Vermonters who died of Covid-19 in September were unvaccinated, the Vermont Department of Heath said Wednesday.

Health Department spokesperson Ben Truman said most of the vaccine ‘breakthrough’ Covid-19 fatalities were elderly. Because they were among the first vaccinated, Vermont’s elderly “have had more time to potentially become a vaccine breakthrough case,” he said.

“For example, there were a total of 33 deaths (as of 9/24) among fully vaccinated people since January. This is a fraction of a percent of the vaccinated population – now nearly 450,000 people age 12 and older. This is an indicator that vaccines are working to protect the vast majority of Vermonters from the worst outcomes.

NO spin required

You're such a freaking clown.


First off quit citing articles from July. Yes dipshit, the article from kff.org is from July, that was 3 months ago. A lot has happened since then, namely the vaccines have quit working. The article also plainly shows that half the states are not even tracking breakthrough cases. So we would have no data to even know if vaccines are working or if protection is dropping.


Second, the elderly have ALWAYS been the ones dying from COVID. So saying only the elderly are dying post vaccine is pretty stupid.


Finally if you want any credibility at all you should quit spewing about numbers "since January" it builds in several months BEFORE the vaccine was widely in use (so of course no vaccinated people died or were hospitalized) and it doesn't accurately depict what is happening with waning protection.



California is one of the only states actually tracking breakthrough cases. In July the vaccinated where already accounting for about 33% of all cases. After the initial reporting came out through August and September the numbers have mysteriously gotten very hard to come by. Imagine that.

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Old 10-14-2021, 01:07 PM   #32
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California is one of the only states actually tracking breakthrough cases. In July the vaccinated where already accounting for about 33% of all cases. After the initial reporting came out through August and September the numbers have mysteriously gotten very hard to come by. Imagine that.
See, this is the kind of thing that makes me want to scream.

It's obvious there's an agenda to everything that's going on and how it's communicated. I'd be more than willing to accept EVERYTHING the "experts" are saying if I wasn't constantly catching them in spins and noble lies. Once I catch you being full of shit, it's going to be tough for me to trust you ever again. That's goes double if I catch you in a lie to protect yourself from criticism because you were wrong previously.
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Old 10-14-2021, 02:27 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
See, this is the kind of thing that makes me want to scream.

It's obvious there's an agenda to everything that's going on and how it's communicated. I'd be more than willing to accept EVERYTHING the "experts" are saying if I wasn't constantly catching them in spins and noble lies. Once I catch you being full of shit, it's going to be tough for me to trust you ever again. That's goes double if I catch you in a lie to protect yourself from criticism because you were wrong previously.

Have you seen how the CDC changed the definition of the term "vaccine" on their website? They literally redefined the meaning so they could still even call the COVID shot a vaccine.


I don't think the government or drug companies are injecting Americans with anything bad, or that there is ill intentions behind the vaccine itself. This is a power game now. A simple act of the government forcing a way to insist on control.
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Old 10-14-2021, 03:24 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Rex Phinney View Post
Have you seen how the CDC changed the definition of the term "vaccine" on their website? They literally redefined the meaning so they could still even call the COVID shot a vaccine.


I don't think the government or drug companies are injecting Americans with anything bad, or that there is ill intentions behind the vaccine itself. This is a power game now. A simple act of the government forcing a way to insist on control.
If I suppress my worst fears and cynicism, I think they believe it's OK for them to lie, spin, and mandate things because they think the American people are idiots and they know what's best for everyone.

So they will maximize fear, oversell the vaccines, downplay the risks, and hide anything negative to achieve their goals.

The possibility that they could ever be wrong or that some people might have unique circumstances that don't apply to their broad stroke ideas is outside their range to consider. They are too arrogant to consider it.

This is the mindset of the totalitarian.

The totalitarian never wakes up one day and says to himself, "I think I'll become evil and start imposing my will on everyone".

We wakes up 100% sure he's right about something. And he believes it so strongly, he's willing to do evil things to accomplish his goals.

Sure, lying directly, lying using the media, manipulating data, forcing people to get vaccinated even if they were already infected (or lose their job), locking people out of activities for not being vaccinated even if they have a clean test or have already been infected (all while vaccinated people are also spreading it) etc.. is not the same as rounding people up, jailing then, or even purging them because they disagree with you. But they are on the first wrung of evil and starting to climb.
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Old 10-14-2021, 04:15 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
The graphs displayed on the webpages I linked to were current as of the day (or the day before) each of my posts.

If you visit the page for Uttar Pradesh on the Johns Hopkins University CSSE Site at the link below and hover your mouse over the right-most (or most recent) dot on the graph:

The most recent date on the graph is yesterday Monday October 11 2021.

According the Johns Hopkins University CSSE Site - this is the current data for Uttar Padesh:
https://coronalevel.com/India/Uttar_Pradesh/

Same for Kerala. If you visit the page on the Johns Hopkins University CSSE Site at the link below and hover your mouse over the right-most (or most recent) dot on the graph:

The most recent date on the graph is yesterday Monday October 11 2021.

According the Johns Hopkins University CSSE Site - this is the current data for Kerala:
https://coronalevel.com/India/Kerala/

.
I believe the population density for Uttar Pradesh and Kerala are about the same.

= Number of People / square miles

Uttar_Pradesh = 204.2 million / 93,933 sq. Miles = 2,173 people per sq. mile

Kerala = 34.63 sq. million / 15,005 sq. miles = 2,307 people per sq. mile

Again, those graphs are not from the beginning of the pandemic (January 2020) but only the last six weeks.


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Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post

I would argue the 83% reduction in risk cited in the Peer Reviewed Ivermectin Study actually stacks up pretty well compared to vaccine immunity when you consider:
Vaccine immunity fades over time.

Ivermectin has proven to be one of the safer drugs in use over the past several decades.

The sheer number of cases reporting adverse side effects for the current vaccines in the VAERS database. (Many orders of magnitude higher than all other vaccines combined over the past 10-15 yrs.)

The lack of long term safety data about the current vaccines.


Someone of median age with minimal risk factors who became fully vaccinated 15 days ago would have a 90% or higher risk reduction against infection from the current vaccines.

But that same person six months after their most recent Covid vaccination likely only has a 70% risk reduction against infection from the current vaccines. (Thus the push for booster shots.)

Whereas, even six months or a year out - a person of the same median age and nearly identical risk factor profile using Ivermectin for prophylaxis likely continues to have an 83% risk reduction against infection. Plus zero risk for adverse side effects the vaccinated person is subjected to with each new dose or booster shot.

I would further argue that last part is not trivial.
The trial study of the health care workers using Ivermectin as a prophylaxis is stunning. However, there is no comparable successful study done for Ivermectin as a treatment for Covid, that I know of, not near 83% effective. There was a promising study done in Egypt, but it was debunked by the organization that did the study.

Using Ivermectin as a standard treatment for Covid doesn't look like it's going to happen, in the U.S. now that we have the new, FDA-approved Molnupiravir(which costs about $700 for a week's treatment: four capsules twice a day for five days—starting within five days after patients experienced the first symptoms vs. Ivermectin which costs about $160 for a supply of 40 tablets.)

Using Ivermectin as an option for U.S. Healthcare workers in lieu of a vaccine, I would wholeheartedly agree with, but there are some logistical problems. One, there are almost 10 million healthcare workers and one choosing Ivermectin, would have to be taking it indefinitely. Sure, a vaccine only lasts about six months but how long does one dose of Ivermectin last?
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Old 10-14-2021, 07:41 PM   #36
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2 pills a week. capsule based on weight.

I take 26 milligrams at 250 lbs twice a week.

Wife takes 14 mg on 140 lbs x 2 a week
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Old 10-14-2021, 10:18 PM   #37
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Harvard Vaccine Study finds the opposite of intended effect

Increases in COVID‑19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States:
https://link.springer.com/content/pd...21-00808-7.pdf

Quote:
S.V. Subramanian 1,2 · Akhil Kumar3

Received: 17 August 2021 / Accepted: 9 September 2021
© Springer Nature B.V. 2021

Vaccines currently are the primary mitigation strategy to combat COVID-19 around the world. For instance, the narrative related to the ongoing surge of new cases in the United States (US) is argued to be driven by areas with low vaccination rates [1]. A similar narrative also has been observed in countries, such as Germany and the United Kingdom [2]. At the same time, Israel that was hailed for its swift and high rates of vaccination has also seen a substantial resurgence in COVID-19 cases [3]. We investigate the relationship between the percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases across 68 countries and across 2947 counties in the US.

Quote:
Methods

We used COVID-19 data provided by the Our World in Data for cross-country analysis, available as of September 3, 2021 (Supplementary Table 1) [4]. We included 68 countries that met the following criteria: had second dose vaccine data available; had COVID-19 case data available; had population data available; and the last update of data was within 3 days prior to or on September 3, 2021. For the 7 days preceding September 3, 2021 we computed the COVID-19 cases per 1 million people for each country as well as the percentage of population that is fully vaccinated.

For the county-level analysis in the US, we utilized the White House COVID-19 Team data [5], available as of September 2, 2021 (Supplementary Table 2). We excluded counties that did not report fully vaccinated population percentage data yielding 2947 counties for the analysis. We computed the number and percentages of counties that experienced an increase in COVID-19 cases by levels of the percentage of people fully vaccinated in each county. The percentage increase in COVID-19 cases was calculated based on the difference in cases from the last 7 days and the 7 days preceding them. For example, Los Angeles county in California had 18,171 cases in the last 7 days (August 26 to September 1) and 31,616 cases in the previous 7 days (August 19–25), so this county did not experience an increase of cases in our dataset. We provide a dashboard of the metrics used in this analysis that is updated automatically as new data is made available by the White House COVID-19 Team (https:/tiny.cc/USDashboard).


Findings

At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated.

Across the US counties too, the median new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people in the last 7 days is largely similar across the categories of percent population fully vaccinated (Fig. 2). Notably there is also substantial county variation in new COVID-19 cases within categories of percentage population fully vaccinated. There also appears to be no significant signaling of COVID-19 cases decreasing with higher percentages of population fully vaccinated (Fig. 3).

Of the top 5 counties that have the highest percentage of population fully vaccinated (99.9–84.3%), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies 4 of them as “High” Transmission counties. Chattahoochee (Georgia), McKinley (New Mexico), and Arecibo (Puerto Rico) counties have above 90% of their population fully vaccinated with all three being classified as “High” transmission. Conversely, of the 57 counties that have been classified as “low” transmission counties by the CDC, 26.3% (15) have percentage of population fully vaccinated below 20%.
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Old 10-14-2021, 10:57 PM   #38
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I just got off a Zoom meeting with my doctor for an unrelated reason.

When I asked him about efficacy he said "even though the vaccines aren't quite as effective as they were initially, they are still very effective at preventing hospitalizations unless you have a weakened immune system. He also said "I have access to daily data on hospitalizations of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated and look at it regularly. The data is still clear".

When I asked about risks he said "the risks are lower than most people think and around the same or less than the typical vaccine".

When I asked about long term risks he said "very unlikely".

When I asked if he's going to get a booster he said "as soon as I can".

When I told him I didn't trust the authorities because I felt they were telling "noble lies" to encourage vaccination he looked away and smirked like he knew I was right, but didn't want me to know that.

Overall, I came away from it more comfortable because I trust him more than the media, government, and guys like Fauci.
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Old 10-14-2021, 10:58 PM   #39
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Amazing stuff……….
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Old 10-16-2021, 07:51 PM   #40
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Evidence Covid-19 was spreading in Europe much earlier than previously thought

The Earliest Infections:
https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/the...est-infections

Quote:
The Corona pandemic began much earlier than is often acknowledged.

eugyppius
Oct 15

Multiple converging lines of evidence show that SARS-2 spread unnoticed for months, especially in Italy, from October 2019. There is the case of a four-year old boy from Milan, with no travel history, who developed typical symptoms on 21 November and whose oropharyngeal sample (they suspected he had measles) later tested positive for SARS-2. There is the French-Algerian fishmonger who was admitted on 27 December to a Parisian ICU and whose respiratory sample later tested positive for SARS-2. He had likely been infected by his child, who was sick before him. His only recent travel was a trip to Algeria that August.

Then there are the wastewater treatment studies, which test archival frozen sewage samples for the presence of the SARS-2 genome. These have established, conclusively, “that SARS-CoV-2 was already circulating in northern Italy at the end of 2019 … in different geographic regions simultaneously”—specifically in Milan and Turin. While the sensational claims of this Spanish preprint to have found evidence of SARS-2 in Barcelona wastewater from March 2019 are not credible and were removed from the published version of the article, the authors’ more fundamental finding, that SARS-2 virus was in Barcelona sewage beginning on 15 January 2020, over a month before Spain’s first official case, remains firm.

And there is the serological evidence: This widely reported study found SARS-2 antibodies in blood samples taken from Italians enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial as early as September 2019. As an outlier, the results are sometimes questioned, but they were confirmed by microneutralisation assay, which found functioning, neutralising antibodies in six of the samples, the earliest from October 2019. Such evidence is not easily discounted. Another study finds convincing evidence of SARS-2 antibodies in French samples taken as early as November 2019. The authors even interviewed some of the seropositive individuals, who remembered getting sick at the same time as various acquaintances.

The Italian evidence points clearly to introduction well before November 2019. There is just no doubt that Corona was circulating in Europe much earlier than anybody realised. All that early press coverage of the first official cases in Italian tourists and German businessmen unfolded while many ordinary people in Paris, Milan, Turin and elsewhere were quietly getting the virus and passing it among themselves. There was the official pandemic of the media, the contact tracers and the epidemiologists, but this was nothing but an illusion—an arbitrarily selected subset of the much larger, real pandemic, which started earlier, involved many more people, and which early containment was always powerless to stop.

Official views of Corona reflect an increasingly stale orthodoxy, the fundaments of which were fixed around April 2020. None of this evidence for the early chronology of Corona is new, but it has never been allowed to influence our broader conception of the pandemic, and there has been almost no reflection on the significance of these findings.

To begin with, this new chronology shows that our impressions of the first wave were all wrong. The upside of those waves, as they washed ashore in each of our countries, was an artefact of increasing diagnostic capacity and the ramping up of mass testing through March and April. In many places, true infections were probably already receding as capacity increased, generating false case peaks where the two lines came to intersect. This was certainly the case in Germany, and it fuelled exaggerated views of SARS-2 transmissibility in those early months that have remained with us ever since.

The new chronology als shows that standard views of the transmissibility and pathogenicity of SARS-2 have been wildly exaggerated. Community spread went unnoticed for months in Italy and France and surely elsewhere in Europe too. Some doctors noted strange bilateral pneumonia cases in their elderly patients in the last months of 2019, but there was no obvious hospitalisation or mortality signal until very late in the winter. The earliest identified cases in Italy are all concentrated in the northern Italian pandemic epicentre, but the lesson is that it took multiple months for these early infections to reach critical mass. The Lombardy outbreak wasn’t seeded in the middle of February by Patient 1 from Codogno. All of this mind-numbing discussion of exponential growth has obscured the intriguing fact that the earliest stages of the pandemic, in the absence of all restrictions, unfolded very slowly indeed.
Quote:
Finally, this adjusted chronology drives us to wonder to what degree our own policies encourage the primary public health signals of SARS-2 infections, namely high hospitalisation rates and mortality. The sequence of events was the same everywhere in the world outside China: Mass testing programs, followed by surging hospital admissions and then excess mortality spikes. Overuse of ventilators caused many early deaths, but it is worth considering if there are not also other, subtler ways that our suppression policies enhance Corona as well. More than anything else, and like MERS and SARS-1 before it, SARS-2 wants to be in institutions. It is a disease of hospitals and nursing homes, and until it gets into those places, its potential to inflict damage is strictly limited. How many people end up in hospitals and other medical facilities as a byproduct of our strange desire to tabulate every last case—people who would’ve never come to the attention of our health systems otherwise? And then there are the broader health consequences of keeping the vast majority of everyone indoors, where infection is more likely, for months at a time.

Imo, the author makes some valid points.

How it was spreading among us - and for months without headlines.

How policy makers may have actually made things worse.


-jp

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Old 10-16-2021, 09:51 PM   #41
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I was told by a nurse, a neighbor of mine, that there are two verified cases out of Austin that occurred in August of 2019. A husband and wife with no travel history.

She says the Feds won’t recognize them because they have no travel history and they can’t figure out where they might have been exposed
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Old 10-16-2021, 09:54 PM   #42
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I told everyone here on day one that this thing had been among us much longer than anyone was reporting.

It only makes 100% logical sense. But people have lost the ability to think critically...especially after Trump blew their brains out.
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Old 10-16-2021, 10:31 PM   #43
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I told everyone here on day one that this thing had been among us much longer than anyone was reporting.

It only makes 100% logical sense. But people have lost the ability to think critically...especially after Trump blew their brains out.
And Jeff's article comports quite nicely with the one I posted about how sales of PCR kits soared in China way before the "official" outbreak date.
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Old 10-17-2021, 03:22 AM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
The Earliest Infections:
https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/the...est-infections






Imo, the author makes some valid points.

How it was spreading among us - and for months without headlines.

How policy makers may have actually made things worse.


-jp

.
Italy was hit early and hard because of all the Chinese immigrants working there to produce coveted "Made in Italy" apparel. The city of Prato Italy alone has an estimated 20,000 legal Chinese immigrants and 10,000 illegal. Many regularly traveled back and forth between the two countries.
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Old 10-17-2021, 05:26 AM   #45
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FDA-approved Molnupiravir(which costs about $700 for a week's treatment: four capsules twice a day for five days—starting within five days after patients experienced the first symptoms vs. Ivermectin which costs about $160 for a supply of 40 tablets.)
I heard on a radio broadcast this week that this drug was discovered while they doing research and testing on a horse illness. I believe it was equine encephalitis.

What are the chances the media is going to tell us that?
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