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Old 10-13-2021, 07:34 PM   #46
classhandicapper
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I hear what you are saying, but Rockemporor won in a canter, hard to argue he wasn't value. Blowout was as clear as lone speed as you will ever see on paper and still went off at 5-1.

A few years ago Chad's horses had a lot more name recognition, and most likely more talent, than the group he currently has as a whole. A lot of those races were unbettable and frankly I wouldn't want to run my horse against some of those either.

But there is a reason his horse's have seemed to be slipping through the cracks lately and it isn't because he isn't a great trainer. I've found a lot of value in his runners the past several months, not just horses that won at prices but were underlaid. (And no, Rockemporor wasn't one of them )
I'm not saying his horse are never overlays.

I don't want to redboard the entire race, but I understood most of the betting in the Joe Hirsch except for Arklow. I thought he was overbet (doesn't mean I was right even though he didn't run well). Ironically, maybe that was some extra "Cox" money???

I keyed Channel Maker despite not being sure if he was the same horse he used to be. I thought he was coming out of race with some quality speed that kind of collapsed and moving into a race where he might control the pace. So I took a shot with him and used him with a few horses including the Chads . I left out Arklow as the reason for going exotic also.

Rock Emperor is one example of the kind of horse I've been talking about. He had some back races I liked a lot, but I didn't think he was running as well lately. If he was trained by Joe Average there would be an X% chance he would run back to a peak. Trained by Chad Brown I'm not sure what the chances were, but I'm sure they were higher than "X%".

Serve the King was an example of another type. IMO, he didn't look good enough to win on paper, but he was a Chad Brown horse and still lightly raced. So imo the chances he would hit a new peak were much higher than if Joe Average was training him.

You have to build that into your odds line.

For me it's very tricky to quantify the impact the trainer has on the chances of a horse jumping back to its A race or hitting a new peak because it's situational, it's hard to accumulate data on it, and it varies over time. Yet people understand this and tend to bet certain trainers horses heavier. So it's twice as tricky.

Anyone that keyed them was smarter than me. I was scared of both, but especially Serve the King because I didn't know what he could do yet.
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Old 10-13-2021, 07:43 PM   #47
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As the talent pool becomes more concentrated into the hands of a few I'd be concerned with the way races develop and the impact that has on the outcome. When everyone wants to ride for one trainer because let's say for example one trainer wins a large percentage of the triple crown races. The question then becomes what if anything does a rider have to do to break into that circle and stay in it... besides just being a good rider. We shouldn't have to worry about this and the better trainers do deserve the increased business but it's also not hard to see where things could potentially get shady.
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Old 10-13-2021, 08:37 PM   #48
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As the talent pool becomes more concentrated into the hands of a few I'd be concerned with the way races develop and the impact that has on the outcome. When everyone wants to ride for one trainer because let's say for example one trainer wins a large percentage of the triple crown races. The question then becomes what if anything does a rider have to do to break into that circle and stay in it... besides just being a good rider. We shouldn't have to worry about this and the better trainers do deserve the increased business but it's also not hard to see where things could potentially get shady.
This is where I think racing get especially difficult. Will riders not show speed on speed so as not to challenge the trainers other horse. Will horses be let thru on the rail because you have no horse and the other horse is for a trainer you would like to ride for or you are riding the trainers other horse. These are questions, the stewards should ask, but is that their job ? Also what should also be questioned are there jockeys in a race that don't challenge each other because of their relationship and who they are riding for. Without entries these are logical questions. I am not asking to have entries. At this point in racing it doesn't make much sense. All these questions are just part of the puzzle.
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Old 10-13-2021, 10:38 PM   #49
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Seattle Slew wasn't bad.
True there will always be a few but most of the time the superior bloodlines rule the stud game. He did have Bold Ruler, Hail to Reason and Round Table 2 generations back.
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Old 10-13-2021, 10:39 PM   #50
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If Brown has 2 or 3 in a race at least half the time the higher odds horse wins. It seems that way to me anyway.
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Old 10-14-2021, 08:28 AM   #51
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A few years ago it seems like the operating principle for a Baffert race was 'beware of his lesser entries.'
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Old 10-14-2021, 01:58 PM   #52
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True there will always be a few but most of the time the superior bloodlines rule the stud game. He did have Bold Ruler, Hail to Reason and Round Table 2 generations back.
A huge percentage of thoroughbreds have top stallions 2 generations back.
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Old 10-15-2021, 12:59 PM   #53
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Knicks Go is somewhat interesting, in regards to the topic.

Colebrook had Knicks Go showing a lot of promise. I think of Colebrook as competent, and a guy is able to give a prospect individual attention.

Brad Cox was fortunate to find the right mix of training (and maybe just a change of scenery, shake things up a bit and start anew) to bring out the potential in the promising Knicks Go.
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Old 10-15-2021, 02:55 PM   #54
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Knicks Go is somewhat interesting, in regards to the topic.

Colebrook had Knicks Go showing a lot of promise. I think of Colebrook as competent, and a guy is able to give a prospect individual attention.

Brad Cox was fortunate to find the right mix of training (and maybe just a change of scenery, shake things up a bit and start anew) to bring out the potential in the promising Knicks Go.
At the very least, we can say Cox stopped having the horse foolishly rated early and let him run.
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Old 10-15-2021, 10:38 PM   #55
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Just a couple of posts ahead of yours was on a tweet about how they are dropping like flies out of the BC FM Sprint.

(IMO, that's a shame because Gamine is one of the more vulnerable favorites on the card...at least in the face of a full field with other speed horses).
Yes.
I think Gamine can be had at a very short number.
I keep remembering her race on Derby Day.....it was a strong race.....but she was lugging in/out all over the place......I hate that.
Now Letruska.......I'll never bet against her,she's just ridiculous.
Sidebar:
You had the book on Ce Ce right.....McCarthy really did a nice job shortening her up.
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Old 10-16-2021, 10:41 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
Knicks Go is somewhat interesting, in regards to the topic.

Colebrook had Knicks Go showing a lot of promise. I think of Colebrook as competent, and a guy is able to give a prospect individual attention.

Brad Cox was fortunate to find the right mix of training (and maybe just a change of scenery, shake things up a bit and start anew) to bring out the potential in the promising Knicks Go.

I think he said he works his horses pretty hard like Baffert.
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Old 10-16-2021, 12:29 PM   #57
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I think he said he works his horses pretty hard like Baffert.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...sting-proposal

Excerpt:

Arthur continued to point out the need for out-of-competition testing because "races are won in training," where he said doping is most effective.
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Old 10-17-2021, 03:02 PM   #58
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Four trainers – Steve Asmussen, Bob Baffert, Chad Brown and Brad Cox – have combined to win 41% of the 83 Grade 1 races run in North America so far this year, a marked increase in the success rate for racing's elite “super trainers” from just a decade ago.

Asmussen and Cox have won nine G1 races each this year, with Baffert and Brown just one behind. Throw in Todd Pletcher's six G1 wins and fully 40 of 83 (48%) of the sport's most important races have been won this year by horses from one of five stables.

Going back a decade to 2011, the dominance was not as severe. When that racing year ended, Bob Baffert led all trainers with 11 G1 wins, but the trainer with the next highest number was Dale Romans, with six, followed by Todd Pletcher, H. Graham Motion and William Mott, with five apiece.

The combined 32 G1 races won by those five trainers accounted for 28% of the 116 G1 stakes run by the end of 2011.


ROFL... yeah, right...


mention nothing of the fact that the number of trainers who participated in graded stakes in 2011 was 36% higher than in (the last full year of) 2020.

Then allow for the ebb and flow of the individual stock of two or three of those guys, and allow for smaller field sizes in 202(0/1), and it is statistically insignificant.


(in 2011 some random stakes has 10 entered, and Pletcher's lone charge has X% chance of winning)

(in 2021 the same stakes has 6 entered, including a second one of Pletchers because it gives him more of an edge in numbers, while perhaps helping to assure an honest pace, and the mere difference caused by more random potential outcomes ending with Pletcher on top combines with the obvious stuff above to make this a non-issue)
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Old 10-17-2021, 04:33 PM   #59
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