Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 10-05-2021, 10:04 AM   #16
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
THREE LINE GRAPHS.. ONE OBSERVATION IS THAT IN ALL THREE GRAPHS THE END OF LINE APPROACHES 1, BREAK EVEN

Attached Images
File Type: png LINE GRAPHS 10-05-2021.PNG (22.9 KB, 7 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-06-2021, 12:23 AM   #17
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
found a few errors and made corrections
now have 112 races, the $1 normalized return, which I previously mentioned may well be the best indicator of long term results, now returns $0.94 on the dollar. I'll post some charts after 200 races.



removing 7 outliers, the $1 normalized returns becomes $0.96
in addition when the bet size is >=100 the $1 normalized return is $1.01 in 71 races.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/

Last edited by formula_2002; 10-06-2021 at 12:36 AM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-06-2021, 10:44 AM   #18
nuckman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 7
Thanks for the work and explanation. I found this very interesting.
nuckman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-06-2021, 11:37 AM   #19
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
Quote:
Originally Posted by nuckman View Post
Thanks for the work and explanation. I found this very interesting.
Yesteday I used the statscalculator to find the "bet size outliers", today I used it to find "return" outliers. eliminating both sets of outliers brought the $1 normalized return down to something much less than $1.01, say about $0.88 to $0.92, depending on what races are included.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-07-2021, 05:17 PM   #20
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
A BIT MORE THAN DUTCHING

PART OF THE STUDY.

Attached Images
File Type: png BEL R1 10-7-2021.PNG (36.4 KB, 17 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 11:15 PM   #21
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
Code:
	Mountaineer Park*	Race 8	0	0.00												
WIN PLAYS	 		 	$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN	Mountaineer Park*	Race 8		$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN		# HORSES	8					
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL BET
$0	$2	$5	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3	$0	$1	$7	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$17.66
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 11:42 PM   #22
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Code:
	Mountaineer Park*	Race 8	0	0.00												
WIN PLAYS	 		 	$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN	Mountaineer Park*	Race 8		$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN		# HORSES	8					
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL BET
$0	$2	$5	$0	$0	$0	$0	$3	$0	$1	$7	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$17.66
11/3 exacta $1 win paid $4.60 at the track
my total bet was $17.66 the return $33.35 (bet sizt to two decimial places was $7.29)

these plays win appox 66% of the time
the minumum average $1 must be 1/.66 = $1.52 to break even
this play returned $33.53/ $17.66 = $1.898
in a 93 race sample that average return was $1.513.

there are 17 races where the play should not be made, then the average return for the remaing races increases to $1.59 at the same win percentage of 66%.


note: with this newly designed play there are but a few races where not only the favorite is eliminated, but 1 additional horse is also eliminated
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/

Last edited by formula_2002; 10-12-2021 at 11:47 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-13-2021, 03:22 PM   #23
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Code:
		Parx Racing*	Race 4	0	0.00												
	WIN PLAYS	 		 	$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN	Parx Racing*	Race 4		$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN		# HORSES	10					
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL BET
	$12	$0	$5	$19	$0	$1	$9	$22	$123	$13	$3	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$208.01
rev

9 wins total bet $208, returned $217
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/

Last edited by formula_2002; 10-13-2021 at 03:32 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-13-2021, 03:49 PM   #24
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
Parx Racing* Race 5

not a betting race
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-13-2021, 03:52 PM   #25
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Parx Racing* Race 5

not a betting race
fav #5 ran at 1/5 and won
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-13-2021, 08:11 PM   #26
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
Code:
 
 	Charles Town*	Race 1	0	0.00												
WIN PLAYS	 		 	$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN	Charles Town*	Race 1		$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN		# HORSES	5					
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL BET
$0	$85	$0	$64	$5	$87	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$240.53
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/

Last edited by formula_2002; 10-13-2021 at 08:15 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-13-2021, 08:22 PM   #27
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Code:
 
 	Charles Town*	Race 1	0	0.00												
WIN PLAYS	 		 	$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN	Charles Town*	Race 1		$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN		# HORSES	5					
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL BET
$0	$85	$0	$64	$5	$87	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$240.53
#2 wins

$240 bet
$347 returned
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-14-2021, 02:07 PM   #28
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
Yestreday, i only posted those races where the total race bet size was >=$200.
all three plays won.

why only those races? Glad you asked.

in a small 119 Race sample, 63% of the picks won, 54% of those at a profit.
the profit, return/bet size was $1.07.

sorting those 119 races on race bet size, it was determined that 32 races, having a race bet size >=$200, returned 72% winners, 83% of those at a profit and return/bet size = $1.25 .

would it not be grand it that continued!!
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-14-2021, 02:11 PM   #29
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
Code:
	Belmont Park*	Race 2	0	0.00												
WIN PLAYS	 		 	$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN	Belmont Park*	Race 2		$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN		# HORSES	6					
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL BET
$108	$110	$0	$1	$0	$8	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$226.42
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-14-2021, 03:18 PM   #30
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,335
Code:
	Belmont Park*	Race 4	0	0.00												
WIN PLAYS	 		 	$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN	Belmont Park*	Race 4		$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN		# HORSES	7					
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL BET
$0	$105	$0	$94	$42	$0	$5	$2	$44	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$292.54
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Vote NOW!
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:53 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.