Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 10-12-2021, 10:42 AM   #1
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 4,199
Four trainers have won 41% of the G1 races run in North America so far this year.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...1-competition/

Excerpt:

Four trainers – Steve Asmussen, Bob Baffert, Chad Brown and Brad Cox – have combined to win 41% of the 83 Grade 1 races run in North America so far this year, a marked increase in the success rate for racing's elite “super trainers” from just a decade ago.

Asmussen and Cox have won nine G1 races each this year, with Baffert and Brown just one behind. Throw in Todd Pletcher's six G1 wins and fully 40 of 83 (48%) of the sport's most important races have been won this year by horses from one of five stables.

Going back a decade to 2011, the dominance was not as severe. When that racing year ended, Bob Baffert led all trainers with 11 G1 wins, but the trainer with the next highest number was Dale Romans, with six, followed by Todd Pletcher, H. Graham Motion and William Mott, with five apiece.

The combined 32 G1 races won by those five trainers accounted for 28% of the 116 G1 stakes run by the end of 2011.
Andy Asaro is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 10:44 AM   #2
Andy Asaro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 4,199
This is really bad for racing and for Gamblers. For decades the favorite win % was around 33%. Over the last several years the favorites win rate has jumped to around 39% and these four guys winning 41% of Grade 1 races is part of the reason.
Andy Asaro is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 11:29 AM   #3
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 17,792
That trend is going to help drive more trainers out of the game.
__________________
“Truth is Treason in an Empire of Lies”
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 11:41 AM   #4
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 45,461
The sport needs an overhaul on a lot of levels and this is one of them.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 12:08 PM   #5
mountainman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,182
Other monopolies exist at a more cellular level in racing. Some jock agents, for instance, control much more business (and far more riders) than is healthy for the game.

And small groups of horsemen form dangerous liaisons. These sort of units result in very short fields and 1/5 walk-overs.

When insiders game the system in order to "get theirs," the product suffers.

Last edited by mountainman; 10-12-2021 at 12:13 PM.
mountainman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 12:36 PM   #6
BarchCapper
Registered User
 
BarchCapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 577
I was trying to figure out the other day why it is perfectly alright with me when Letruska goes out to an easy lead and smokes a Grade I field without facing a challenge, yet it drives me crazy when it happens in other big races.

Now I realize why.
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
——————
”She's pert ... if you like pert.” - Let It Ride
BarchCapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 01:07 PM   #7
lamboguy
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 21,731
the breeding farms have also figured out to breed fewer horses and create a bigger demand for the horses they sell in the auctions tripling the prices that they would have bought 15 years ago. you now have a Korean and Viet Nam contingent of people that are buying what used to be $10,000 horses and they are paying $30,000 and bring the horses back to their countries. that along with a few trainers controlling condition books and horse population's wind up giving you 5 +6 horse fields and scaring away business from the race tracks.
lamboguy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 02:02 PM   #8
MJC922
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,058
Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
I was trying to figure out the other day why it is perfectly alright with me when Letruska goes out to an easy lead and smokes a Grade I field without facing a challenge, yet it drives me crazy when it happens in other big races.

Now I realize why.
Someone really should've played watchdog there though. Third quarter was so soft following that soft half it becomes a total freebie at that point. Makes no sense to give races away like this. I understand she's lone speed and the best horse on paper, whatever, but we can say that about a lot of horses that blow up and throw a slightly subpar effort now and then.
__________________
North American Class Rankings
MJC922 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 02:09 PM   #9
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,473
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
The sport needs an overhaul on a lot of levels and this is one of them.
yup, the proliferation of these mega stables have no helped the sport in any way.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 02:16 PM   #10
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 105,431
I understand Belmont Park is going to be renamed Chad Downs.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 03:15 PM   #11
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 21,529
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
I understand Belmont Park is going to be renamed Chad Downs.
Chad is dominant, but he's all class.

Has anyone ever broken down Brown's percentages by race, instead of by entries?
Equibase has him 695 161W 136P 102Shw $17,772,235
which is a 'meager' 23%
Many 2 and even 3 entries in races.
What's his % in well-meant races, by race?
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 04:25 PM   #12
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,285
Seems to me it's at least as relevant, and I think more so, how many different owners are winning Grade 1s, and looking at how much they spend to get to that level. Owners, like bettors, are the ones putting up the money. Telling them who they can and can't use as trainers is nonsensical.

Brad Cox, Todd Pletcher, and Chad Brown had no advantages getting into the game. They started with a handful of horses. I must be crazy, but I don't see how their "domination" is the problem. At some point, others will come along and take their places or affect their results ( Brendan Walsh seems like a guy perhaps poised to enter the upper echelon ). If they aren't delivering for owners, they will lose horses and thus opportunity.

Don't a handful of riders dominate in the biggest races? Why isn't that met with similar angst?
the little guy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 04:32 PM   #13
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 7,811
Quote:
Originally Posted by the little guy View Post
Seems to me it's at least as relevant, and I think more so, how many different owners are winning Grade 1s, and looking at how much they spend to get to that level. Owners, like bettors, are the ones putting up the money. Telling them who they can and can't use as trainers is nonsensical.
This is a straw man. Nobody is telling anyone who they can or can't use as trainers.

The issue is whether- especially in a sport that has its drug problems- dominance at the very top level by a handful of barns is a good sign.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 04:44 PM   #14
the little guy
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 6,285
Someone needs to learn the definition of a straw man argument.

It's fine if you, or anyone, doesn't agree with me, but I didn't make a straw man argument. I didn't distort the point at all. I just don't agree it's a real issue in the game. I think it's complicated, most things are, and even if it is a "problem" I don't think it's particularly high on the list.
the little guy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-12-2021, 05:35 PM   #15
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 3,921
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro View Post
This is really bad for racing and for Gamblers. For decades the favorite win % was around 33%. Over the last several years the favorites win rate has jumped to around 39% and these four guys winning 41% of Grade 1 races is part of the reason.



I don't know but I would assume that the favorite win % could be attributable to smaller fields.



I think it would be a much bigger problem if it was the same top 8 trainers in 2021 as it was in 2011. Four new trainers made the top 8 list in 2021.
__________________
So many people these days are too judgemental. I can tell just by looking at them.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Vote NOW!
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:09 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.