Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 10-01-2021, 10:46 AM   #1
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,337
BETTING ALL NON-FAVORITE HORSES IN THE FIELD.

BETTING ALL NON-FAVORITE HORSES IN THE FIELD.

THE BET SIZE FOR ALL THE NON-FAVORITES IS DETERMINED BY THE RELATIONS SHIP OF ALL-NON-FAVORITES TO THE FAVORITE.

THE ATTACHED REPRESENTS THE WORK FOR ALL 8 RACES AT CHURCHILL DOWNS RACETRACK FOR YESTERDAY, 09-30-2021

THE TOTAL BET (COL W) = $913
TOTAL RETURNED (COL W)= $1210
THE FAVORITES WON ONLY 2 RACES
BASED ON THEY FAVORITES FAIR WIN % (COL AA) THEY SHOULD HAVE WON 2.56 RACES .
SO THEY WON BUT 78% OF THE EXPECTED WINS
MY $1 RETURN WAS $1210/ $913 = $1.32 ON THE DOLLAR

IF THE FAV WON ALL 2.56 RACES MY $1 RETURN WOULD BE $1.31
BUT THE WON ONLY 78% OF THE RACES, SO MY LONG TERM $1 WIN RETURN WOULD BE $1.32 X 0.78 = $1.029

Pretty, pretty good, if it held up.
My win bet sizes are based on the expected normalized win % for each non favorite compared to its actual normalized win %

Attached Images
File Type: png bet all non favorites in an single race.PNG (48.2 KB, 56 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/

Last edited by formula_2002; 10-01-2021 at 10:48 AM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-01-2021, 04:08 PM   #2
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,337
Code:
WIN PLAYS	 		 	$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN	Belmont Park*	Race 5		$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN		# HORSES	8					
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL BET
$6	$0	$9	$6	$0	$7	$0	$2	$6	$2	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$36.82
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-01-2021, 04:29 PM   #3
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,337
the #6 wins $ 5 on a $1 play

before the gates open
QUOTE=formula_2002;2757753]
Code:
WIN PLAYS	 		 	$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN	Belmont Park*	Race 5		$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN		# HORSES	8					
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL BET
$6	$0	$9	$6	$0	$7	$0	$2	$6	$2	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$36.82
[/QUOTE]
my $1 return was $0.98

after the gates open
Code:
WIN PLAYS	 		 	$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN	Belmont Park*	Race 5		$WIN  BET SIZES SHOWN		# HORSES	8					
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	TOTAL BET
$7	$0	$22	$7	$0	$21	$0	$2	$9	$2	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$69.95

My $1 return was $1.53
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-01-2021, 06:12 PM   #4
derrick24948
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2021
Posts: 4
Hey, thanks for sharing this. Really interesting.

Could you explain a little further-more simply for a non-mathematician- how you calculated the amount to bet per horse based on the odds relationship?

I'm not grasping it completely and your chart is way over my ignorant head! Thanks!
derrick24948 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-01-2021, 09:30 PM   #5
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,337
Quote:
Originally Posted by derrick24948 View Post
Hey, thanks for sharing this. Really interesting.

Could you explain a little further-more simply for a non-mathematician- how you calculated the amount to bet per horse based on the odds relationship?

I'm not grasping it completely and your chart is way over my ignorant head! Thanks!
thanks for your interest.
I can not share the information at this time.

The chart is a bit over done, but thats how my mind works
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-01-2021, 10:15 PM   #6
sharkey11
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 357
derrick its a dutching method try serching for huey mahl he had written good stuff on that . this man posting this thread is most likely the only one who under stands what hes posting hes dutching some of the entrants and leaving some with 0 bets on them . so it highly unlikely that he or anyone else can win at this type of betting .anyway best of luck
sharkey11 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-02-2021, 12:09 PM   #7
Red Knave
dGnr8
 
Red Knave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Niagara, Ontario
Posts: 2,986
Quote:
Originally Posted by sharkey11 View Post
hes dutching some of the entrants and leaving some with 0 bets on them . so it highly unlikely that he or anyone else can win at this type of betting
It's the 5th from Bel on Oct 1. There is a zero bet on the 2 because it was favorite, the others were either scratched or there was no horse entered.
Don't dismiss Formula's work in this game.
__________________
.
The great menace to progress is not ignorance but the illusion of knowledge - Daniel J. Boorstin

The takers get the honey, the givers sing the blues - Robin Trower, Too Rolling Stoned - 1974
Red Knave is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-02-2021, 12:23 PM   #8
sharkey11
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 357
i dont dismiss any ones work but when a guy asks what all this means and gets told its not to be shared then i just tryed to point the fella in the right direction and besides the author of the thread seem to be the only one who knows what all this means and makes claims as to the validness on one or two races . seems to me one or two is a very small sample . well good luck to him and to yourself also
sharkey11 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-02-2021, 04:50 PM   #9
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,337
Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Knave View Post
It's the 5th from Bel on Oct 1. There is a zero bet on the 2 because it was favorite, the others were either scratched or there was no horse entered.
Don't dismiss Formula's work in this game.
That's very kind of you to say

Thanks
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-02-2021, 10:50 PM   #10
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,337
Here is a summary of 42 recent races
there were 31 winners (26 for a profit) for 75% winners. I have not determined the true win % of the favorites

total bet = $5209, returned $5792. return on the dollar was $1.11

normalizing the bets for each race (which may be the best way to determine long term proifs (if one is to be had) was $1.01
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/

Last edited by formula_2002; 10-02-2021 at 10:53 PM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-03-2021, 10:01 AM   #11
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,337
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Here is a summary of 42 recent races
there were 31 winners (26 for a profit) for 75% winners. I have not determined the true win % of the favorites

total bet = $5209, returned $5792. return on the dollar was $1.11

normalizing the bets for each race (which may be the best way to determine long term proifs (if one is to be had) was $1.01
here is the chart
Attached Files
File Type: pdf PACEADV SUMS 10-2-2021 pdf.pdf (82.5 KB, 56 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-04-2021, 02:33 PM   #12
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,337
here is a neat outlier on line calculator.

https://statscalculator.com

after 68 races and 46 winners, return/ bet size =$0.79,
$1 normalized bet returned $0.91

eliminating one of the three outliers (i think after more races, two of the three out liers will become normal)

after 67races and 46 winners, return/ bet size =$1.02,
$1 normalized bet returned $0.92
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-04-2021, 09:01 PM   #13
derrick24948
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2021
Posts: 4
Quote:
Originally Posted by sharkey11 View Post
i dont dismiss any ones work but when a guy asks what all this means and gets told its not to be shared then i just tryed to point the fella in the right direction and besides the author of the thread seem to be the only one who knows what all this means and makes claims as to the validness on one or two races . seems to me one or two is a very small sample . well good luck to him and to yourself also
Thanks Sharkey! I appreciate the info. I realize it's dutching, but how the relationship between the win odds of the favorite and other horses to determine the dutch is what I don't get. But! the original poster isn't able to share it so there's my answer. I wasn't missing anything.
derrick24948 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-04-2021, 09:15 PM   #14
sharkey11
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 357
all i can tell you is that dutching is not realy profitable not to say it dosent work just never worked for me and as he has shown it dosent work in his examples as i.e the .92 cent return on his wagers try hedging it might be better and gl
sharkey11 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-05-2021, 01:38 AM   #15
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 40,337
Quote:
Originally Posted by sharkey11 View Post
all i can tell you is that dutching is not realy profitable not to say it dosent work just never worked for me and as he has shown it dosent work in his examples as i.e the .92 cent return on his wagers try hedging it might be better and gl
There is joy in mudville just besting the takeout imagine cutting an 18% vig down to 8%. Further, Imagine what a good handicapper could do with that!!
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA A MUSICAL TRIBUTE
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...6FORM%3DVDMHRS

http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

https://epidemic-stats.com/
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wagering Pool with best chance to find an overlay.
Win - 36.36%
20 Votes
Place - 3.64%
2 Votes
Show - 9.09%
5 Votes
Exacta - 30.91%
17 Votes
Trifecta - 7.27%
4 Votes
Superfexta - 1.82%
1 Vote
Pick(x) - 10.91%
6 Votes
Hi 5 Pentafecta - 0%
0 Votes
Total Votes: 55
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:13 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.