Beyer on Dutrow, Wolfson, etc.

[cj]

Kelly Leak ran back at a mile on the turf and won with an 88. Southern Exchange was an also ran at Ocala Training Center going 1 1/16, but I don't know his Beyer. Player's List ran last in the Sam Davis at 171 to 1 going 1 1/16. Those are the only ones to run back outside of Phil. Two on a different surface, and all going long.

This game is never that simple!

[racefinder2]

Could I throw something in here? And this is more of a side-light to the aforementioned 'move-up' trainers and this 'Phil' horse w the 'super fig'.

IMO, and this seems like a LT trend, is the speed figs
coming from GP, for F-running speed-horses are biased too high. Even at the longer distances. I dont want to mess with anyones 'religion' here...on fig-adjustments to off the pace runners or close-up types that cant last(outside of BL charts).

I sense the GP speed runners are getting figs that wont hold up on other tracks...this 'transporting of figs' from track to track is the biggest gamble -moreso than the art of making the figs themselves. I try to keep speed and figure hcpg 'compartmentalized' rather than make bad track-to-track assumptions.

Is GP a speed biased track? Or is this just my imagination? Im struggling to understand where a 2 pt difference in opinion supercedes something like a LT speed bias.

[Niko]

I noticed that a couple years ago too. Horses couldn't run back to their Gulstream figs if those were abnormal. I started handicapping them with suspect much like I did the old Keeneland numbers, Saratoga or Laurel/Pimlico when they ship to a new circuit.

It seemed more pronounced with hot trainers at Gulfstream. And if part of the horses form cycle I would think some would eventually run back to those numbers..but they rarely did.

I'll continue to do this until I see different, especially at short odds.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ralph_the_cat

whats the hell are you talking about?... I never said anything about speed figures in the last couple days... I asked what Beyer gave phil this past weekend, because I didnt know... and by the way, your experts never answered... so I dont know where you get off this "dont talk about them like I do"... You're acting like a jerk...

I see you are dismissing my rather sage advice. Oh well. All anyone has to do is perform a cursory glance at your recent posts concerning speed figures to realize my advice is something you should seriously consider taking.

But, it's a free country.

[kid4rilla]

It doesn't seem to me that artificially souping up the performance of horses would ever be much of a concern to any racing administrators. The show goes on and the horses light up the track with their improving performance, they presumably heal quicker and get back in the gates faster. Maybe some milk shake can create the next TC winner that everybody is hoping for to get racing a few spots higher on Sportscenter. Track brass surely do not lose too much sleep over the soundness of the stock on the backside.

The "damaging" of the game has no effect on the large/long-time players who will play regardless. How many dyed in the wool horseplayers out of 100 who say they are going to quit actually do? The efforts to attract new fans/players to racing is geared to the entertainment aspect, not at all to the integrity of the sport. If they thought the fairness of the game meant anything to the patrons, wouldn't they try to reduce the takeout to make it possible to win instead of the speedy fleecing that is done to players now? If you are worried about the fairness of the game as it applies to your ability to handicap a race.....no one running the show cares, because you'll be back tomorrow playing the early pick 3.

Baseball never policed steriod use heavy because they just didn't really care. The product on the field improved, bombs were flying everywhere, McGwire and Sosa were forearm bumping and uppercutting each other. Did you ever really think they weren't juicing? Did you really care unless you were concerned about how their numbers stacked up to the players of old? Hell, I wish they'd start an All-Steroids baseball league.

As I understand it, if it wasn't for the Kentucky Derby weekend Churchill Downs would not operate in the black. And no one I know who attends the Derby is considering not going to see the spectacle because the trainers aren't being policed well enough. 85% of the patrons who attend on big days think that all the entries are "sponged" or "milkshaked" anyway and have since they were kids.

[Niko]

Originally Posted by kid4rilla

85% of the patrons who attend on big days think that all the entries are "sponged" or "milkshaked" anyway and have since they were kids.

I like your post and this part especially...my non-racing friends assume racing is "crooked" and accept it as part of the game. I don't do much to convince them otherwise because there's no reason to defend the game right now.

And they accept they will lose just about everytime because of the high take and the state of the game (unless they're with me... ) They will not take the game seriously other than minimal handicapping and only go on big days or a day or two during the summer to enjoy it. Might as well go to the casino because you're odds are just as good if not better not to mention poker

The kids love going to the track. But they are taught that everyone who gambles on it loses--for the most part. And that their friend (me) is delirious...