Beyer on Dutrow, Wolfson, etc.

[cj]

Originally Posted by joanied

I see you & cj will argue all this...but IMO, that must have been a bunch of low end horses to run those slow fractions...and Phil had to be by far the best of that field...
as far as being a super horse because he's with Dutrow...maybe we should turn that around...rather than Dutrow making a horse into something 'super'....could it be a horse already is super (although not apparent yet) and just happens to be with Dutrow

Here is the point....the horse ran pretty much exactly the same race figure wise, and performance wise, whether entered on dirt or grass, sprinting or routing. To suddenly say the horse is only a sprinter doesn't make a lot of sense.

Forgetting figures, the horse won a restricted stakes race sprinting, then stepped up to a G2 routing and ran an OK race, so suddenly he is just a sprinter?

As for the filly/colt thing, there is rarely any difference between the sexes speed wise at that age. Check out the Breeder's Cup results and see for yourself, and that is late in the 2yo season. In the early part of the year, it is practically nonexistent.

[cj]

I went back and looked at the day in question, his route win at 2. First, the time for the colts was .31 seconds faster, significantly faster at any distance. That is between 1.5 and 2 lengths at a mile.

The pace was over a half second slower at the quarter, a half second faster at the half, and identical at the 6f. Oh, and TOFP had a tough trip, clipping heels early, and still won easily.

The kicker, and I did not know this when I posted about raw times, is that the track slowed between the filly and colt race. There was an intervening turf race, and as is common at Calder, something was done to the track to change its speed. It is clear looking at the early races and the late ones that something happened, which is why I always say quoting raw times is just silly.

[ralph_the_cat]

You act like a wrote a book on it for goodness sake, so now I will, I made a simple comment that his only route win was easy, thats a bit clear if you can read a PP line, the times werent the only reason, just one of them... If he didn't clip heals, the sob woulda got burnt up out on the front, much like yesterday, have you ever seen a horse that has trouble relaxing clip heals and have to sit just off the pace and still wins, it happens... and the clip wasnt too bad, just knocked the horse to his senses, which gave him a shot to sit just off the early pace... if he woulda been out front he woulda got caught up with the 3 horses who finished off the board IMO...

Saying Fillies and colts races are the same at the 2yo age is a bit off... based on the BC races especially... hell, the race after Phils on that Sept GP day, the 2yo fillies ran 7F in 1:26.38 while the boys went 124.74, even though you claim the track got slower for some reason... I dont know where you get the track got slower from either... thats laughable... the final race of the day had the fastest opening 1/4 of 21.44, and that was a MDN race after running stake races much of the day, and the 3 fastest opening 1/2s came in the 3 races AFTER Phils... I dont see how you can claim the track slowed down one bit... actually I think I see where you got that, just because the last race finished in 1:13 probably, which is slow, but considering it was the same horse who set the opening fraction of 21.44, its clear NO one else wanted that race, he was hanging on for dear life, which is why the slow time came about and no one there closed on him, not to mention it was a MDN race...

and when routing, .31 seconds isnt too much... if it was a sprint I would agree with you... but a route race, .31 seconds isnt much... look at the 7F race... the boys were over 1.5 seconds faster...

Phil getting away with (IMO) a easy race at the route distance in sept., based off a few things, time being one of them... and not being able to win his next 3 route races... only to switch back to a sprint and win a nice race.... I think hes a sprinter, the race just this past week helps prove that... suddenly you want to say throw out the Beyers, hes just a winner of a non-restricted sprint race.... boy you sound like me a few weeks ago, thats why I said he would be overmatched in this field... and said his best shot would be to stay at the sprint, but even at that, I doubt he'll win anything more than a modest GIII at BEST... Looking at his PPs, you have to be half dead not to see hes a sprinter... he has uncontrollable early speed for the route distance, I dont think he'll relax unless he clips heals or gets caught in traffic... his best chance at success is in a sprint... I dont know where you get off criticizing my analogy as laughable... when you were hooked on Beyers single 117 figure on Phil... I agree to disagree, but comparing times isnt "laughable" when you know what kind of times the track was putting out on those same days...

[Dahoss9698]

It just keeps getting worse.

[cj]

There is so much there that is off base I don't know where to start. I'll begin with the easiest one.

The horse hardly has "uncontrollable" early speed when routing. The horse had never once before yesterday been in front at the first call of a route race. He has actually rated very well nearly every time, at least with his old trainer.

In his first route race, he ran pretty even and won for fun as we have discussed. His pace and final numbers are very close. In the Foolish Pleasure, the horse rated back in 4th, then 3rd early behind a blazing fast pace for the race. He moved too early, jockey error most likely, and was run down late while holding on for second easily.

Next came the In Reality, where the jockey rated well back off a slower pace than the previous race while wide, giving the horse virtually no chance. You cannot do that with a horse with uncontrollable route speed.

The next race was the real clincher. The horse ran nice and relaxed on the turf, getting a 74 pace figure and a 78 speed figure on a surface where you have to go much slower to get a lower pace figure. Sure, he got run down by a couple horses probably better than he on turf, but again, no way was he some run off sprinter going long.

he has uncontrollable early speed for the route distance

I shouldn't laugh at that statement? Keep in mind, he did all this as a 2yo, a time when most horses don't rate at all.

[ralph_the_cat]

say what?... so much off based on what?... theres so much proof to most of what I stated.... and you getting "Fast Early Speed" confused with "Uncontrollable Early Speed" is laughable... a horse doesnt have to sit on top to have uncontollable speed... the horse runs better when hes relaxed early or somewhat-forced to relax... he cant seem to relax in route races.... a horse could sit in 4th and still have uncotrollable early speed, and not be able to relax... thats why so many of his races he stumbles, gets bumped, clips heals or pushed/forced wide in the early stages of a race, race after race... because he cant relax, he wants to go... whether hes in first or 5th, he has uncontrollable early speed... not to be confused with fast early speed...


uncontrollable early speed= lack of controling a horse early in a race...

[ralph_the_cat]

you're judging if a horse relaxed based on early figures.... too funny... as if a figure tells you everything... Again, My handicapping is outdated... Im sorry for the confusion... clearly Im wrong... I just watch the races to see if a horse is relaxed... that was sooo 1998...

[classhandicapper]

I still haven't changed my opinion about that TOFP. I think that 116 Beyer overstated how well the horse ran that day. I also think he probably prefers sprinting. There isn't much evidence of that in the figures, but the horse has tended to tire in the stretch of his losing efforts going long and short. I thought he ran a very good 6F-6.5F again yesterday before tiring. I think it's at least possible he's one of those horses that's a little better sprinting but can carry his speed longer if he catches the right field. I made the point previously that some of the figure improvement that was assumed to be Dutrow magic may have been development that was hidden by being raced in routes and on turf where he was less than 100%. WE will learn more from here, but if I was Dutrow I would sprint him next. They could always try to stretch him out again later.

[cj]

Originally Posted by ralph_the_cat

you're judging if a horse relaxed based on early figures.... too funny... as if a figure tells you everything... Again, My handicapping is outdated... Im sorry for the confusion... clearly Im wrong... I just watch the races to see if a horse is relaxed... that was sooo 1998...

Of course a figure doesn't tell you everything, but neither does visual observation. The two together tell you a lot though.

[DrugS]

Originally Posted by ralph_the_cat

so what did Phil earn yesterday, a 75? or something...

I laughed.

I think the over/under on his figure yesterday would be a 96.

The only way he ran a 75 is if Us Treasury won the 2nd race with a 58.

[cj]

Originally Posted by DrugS

I laughed.

I think the over/under on his figure yesterday would be a 96.

The only way he ran a 75 is if Us Treasury won the 2nd race with a 58.

He knows as much about figures as I do about the WNBA.

[ralph_the_cat]

Originally Posted by cj

He knows as much about figures as I do about the WNBA.

You know as much about horse racing as you do WNBA.

[ralph_the_cat]

Originally Posted by DrugS

I laughed.

I think the over/under on his figure yesterday would be a 96.

The only way he ran a 75 is if Us Treasury won the 2nd race with a 58.

I havent a clue what he earned yesterday, nor will find out... nor will I even attempt to care... I saw a horse that got left in the dust... I dont care if he got a 75, a 45 or 105.... either way... he coulda done similar with Kathleen O'Connell... there was little improvement at the route distance from Kathleen to Dutrow... but I imagine you are waiting for Beyer to tell you what you should think...

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cj

He knows as much about figures as I do about the WNBA.

Don't knock the WNBA.

[nijinski]

When ThisonesforPhil ran his big Beyer, it was off the longest layoff he had
since his two year old debut. Over two months.Maybe the freshening helped,
maybe not He may not be more than a miler and frankly this field had some
better quality.
There could be many reasons ,but I doubt roids. Dutrow knows he is is being
watched.