*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

*These are the 5 spot play entries:

6TH - EXPENSIVE STYLE 6-1

7TH - SOLAR WARMING 10-1

9TH - GEMO 4-1

10TH- GOGO SHOES 6-1

12TH- LIZA STAR 6-1

You PLATINUM users, look these over and you'll see how I came up with them




*[BBTW...this program doesn't cost $1500, or $1,000--or even $100...it's $49.99 with no taxes or shipping fees-- and all stats columns are sortable top to bottom[/B]

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[NorCalGreg]

Sheeit...I rarely know the date or day anymore--I accidentally posted GPX for Sat.

Here's Sundays Spot Plays:

6TH - MY LAST FIRST 8-1

7th - DESERT GENERAL 8-1

10TH - GINS AND TINS 10-1

11TH - MS MESHAK 7-2

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Got one and doubled my money--bet $80 returned $170

[NorCalGreg]

WACA WACA'S last race had the single, sole purpose of darkening his form--he was immediately dropped back down--and won for fun at Fonner today paying $23.80. This was just one example that happens every day at every lower tier track--and some of the top tracks. The problem is (especially at Parx) sometimes there are 3 or 4 trainers pulling this kind of stuff in the same race.
It's been going on since racing began a hundred + years ago, since racing began in this country.

BTW...I gauge class level by purse size

Now...anyone want to continue debating this FACT?

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[sharkey11]

no arguement from me ive subscribed to this MO since the late 70s and it works problem is like you say when there is several in one race . by the way i hope you bet some on it

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by sharkey11

no arguement from me ive subscribed to this MO since the late 70s and it works problem is like you say when there is several in one race . by the way i hope you bet some on it

No, I didn't bet Sharkey...afterward, I look at longshots to see what lead up to this winning race.
There are a couple "keys" I see regularly: A short gap between the last two or three races--for example WACA showed an 8-day gap between his 2nd and third race back. usually (but not always) a rider switch, and last race a completely different race. Waca always shows early speed--but not his last race. He got away late and never made any effort.

Also there is usually a "good" recent race.

That short gap between recent races is because cheap claimers have to be raced into winning form--American Pharoah can get out of bed and win a race--these cheaper horses need live prep races for the most part. That short gap is an indicator the trainer thinks this horse is rounding into winning form.

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

There isn't much to choose from, but these are a few horses that show some degree of trainer maneuvering @ Fonner today:

3RD - SOMETHIN BETTER 6-1

5TH - SILAS 8-1

5TH - PICADILLY ROADSTER 8-1 (This horses's last race shows almost the exact same distance from the leader at every call--it has a "manufactured" look that USUALLY doesn't happen by chance)

7th - BE MY SHADOW 8-1

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Nailed a $20 winner in the 3rd. Unbelievably, his winning 6f time was 1:16.8. Never seen a winner win that slow.

BTW:...I post my winnings because I was accused of redboarding or making up stories. If I don't post any results it's usually because I didn't win. Fair enough?

[NorCalGreg]

Gotta go with ROCK CITY ROADHOG 6-1...Looks like a slam dunk--unfortunately horse racing is rarely that easy. I'll go with an exacta box with that one and TRASHMANSCOMING 10-1.


Here is the TIP SHEET from the EXOTIC BETS program.

-Good luck all-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

*Of the four circled horses--2 won. My single ROCK CITY in the 9th didn't hit the board.

[NorCalGreg]

I'll take a shot in a couple late races @ GPX:

9TH - CAJUN BROTHER 8-1

11TH - PACHANGA PARTY 30-1

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I'll take a shot in a couple late races @ GPX:

9TH - CAJUN BROTHER 8-1

11TH - PACHANGA PARTY 30-1

-NCG

Once again NorCal comes through:


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[stewball1127]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Once again NorCal comes through:


.

NICE JOB.

Race 8 #5 St Joe Viper had the top E1/E2 and Late. Also had top EPOWR and LPOWR. Top Power although 4 of 8 didn't have a rating

Solid $17.60 winner going 8F on the turf.

[mikesal57]

NCG...on a roll again!!!

[NorCalGreg]

Honestly I fell asleep this afternoon, and didn't wake up until a few minutes prior to the 9th race. I downloaded the Bris file not thinking about the time difference and the early start in FLA.

I went through the last 3 races--and just barely got my 9th race pick in. I never even looked at the 8th--but I will later on tonight.

-NCG

**oh and thank you Mike...isn't that a Willie Nelson song: "ON A ROLL AGAIN"