*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc - Page 496 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

NorCalGreg · 07-23-2021, 11:47 AM

I regularly get systems, methods, spot plays, etc, from readers-- hopefully who have done well with the method...or it shows positive potential. They are usually older-from before this decade, and usually even older than that.

Every once in a while I'll find a hidden gem, or at least something promising that may need to be adjusted slightly. You can tell a spot play is older than dirt, if one of the rules is:
"HORSE MUST HAVE A RACE WITHIN PAST 10 DAYS" since horses rarely race that often, anymore...21 days is a more contemporary requirement for a speedy return. I use 30 days since last, as a general cutoff point nowadays.

Anyway, here is a rather unusual method--that actually gives a list of selections...AND will note, for lack of a better word, "best bets" among those selections. Those "best bets" are indicated with a red star. Also I've added a minimum ML of 6-1 to insure value-betting.

I'll run the picks from the data files I have handy for today--and see what the results look like:

*btw-SPEED DEMONS will be available in a month or two

green80 · 07-23-2021, 12:32 PM

" Also I've added a minimum ML of 6-1 to insure value-betting."

I think that would improve everybody's bottom line no matter what method they were using.

NorCalGreg · 07-23-2021, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by green80

" Also I've added a minimum ML of 6-1 to insure value-betting."

I think that would improve everybody's bottom line no matter what method they were using.

LOL was just thinking about that. With no odds minimum, guys will bet anything, with no odds consideration. Lose their @$$, and tell me my program is crap

It may be crap...but it won't be because you ignored any wagering value

dansan · 07-23-2021, 01:29 PM

Need a money management system without your bleeding $$ even with a minimum you will take on a horse

green80 · 07-23-2021, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dansan

Need a money management system without your bleeding $$ even with a minimum you will take on a horse

agreed, but you also need a money management system that fits you style of betting. Even with a successful method you will have to stand some long run-outs.

NorCalGreg · 07-24-2021, 10:58 AM

Don't know why it happens so often...you'll have a play that's tearing 'em up-----until you finally dare to post (in advance) that day's plays. Didn't take long to check (since there was nothing there)--a couple scratches, and I think one horse actually hit the board.

I'll give it a chance to redeem itself, today. It's not looking real promising at the moment:

If it bombs out again...maybe I'll package it up as a solid profit-making black box program, and sell the rights to one of the other vendors...or just toss it.

NorCalGreg · 07-24-2021, 04:11 PM

I've mentioned a few times we are working on another program called "Speed Demons".

Still a ways away from completion...but I'm starting to get a little excited. I made up a rating called "DEMON POWER" that so far, I've noticed it's been pretty decent. I stopped playing tracks I historically don't win at...and my bankroll has increased dramatically.

Anyway, back to Speed Demons. Being an admitted card-carrying gambling fool...decided to play the top Demon Power horses at Gulfstream, in pick-4's today.

I realize that is a pretty foolish move...betting real money on a rating that is still in the testing phase. I did it anyway.

Now here's the fun part: The very first pick-4 I played at GPX--using the top-3 Demon-Rated in each race----nailed it.

OzYank · 07-24-2021, 06:25 PM

Congrats----That's a great looking logo too...

Need any help testing it?

NorCalGreg · 07-24-2021, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OzYank

Congrats----That's a great looking logo too...

Need any help testing it?

Well, yeah Simon...I know you to be a meticulous handicapper, and possibly you can help improve it. Go to town and try anything you think may work. I'll get the semi-complete program to you in a couple minutes-thanks.

-NCG

ps* I think we have enough testers as of now

OzYank · 07-24-2021, 07:20 PM

Thx for sending through, will give it a crack and see what falls out !!!!

ric4nier · 07-24-2021, 07:33 PM

That's a great Logo....looking forward to it!!

green80 · 07-24-2021, 10:08 PM

I tried the same thing, played the pick-4 at Lad for .50--using the top-3 Demon-Rated in each race---.paid $142.85

coacht · 07-25-2021, 02:25 AM

A couple of nice hits Greg

GP 7/24 race 5 the 8 paid $21.40 to win

SAR 7/24 race 11 the 10 won and paid $19. The 1 in the same race ran second and paid $17.80. The $1 exacta was $125.75

WO race 2 the 3 won and paid $7.60.

NorCalGreg · 07-28-2021, 01:13 PM

We haven't shown Best-Five lately. Recently it's been hot as a pistol

Vinnie · 07-28-2021, 05:42 PM

The heat continues to persist....

Best 5 Early P4 at PRX paid $116.60.
Late P3 paid $191.80 for a buck
Late Double with a 3x3 type of wager paid a very schweet $295.40 for $2 dollars with winners of $27.40 on Top of a $15.40 winner to close out the card.

Very Nice!!