This is a TFUS race of the day, so I’ll cite those figs. The early/late running style figs line up pretty well with the Pace Projector. I’ll take them in Pace Projector order (with the favorite last).
Noble Indy
Just don’t see him at this distance, against these. Toss.
Paret
Seemed to perk up here at the 10f Point of Entry Stakes last time out. Poor trainer prospects off the layoff, but good turf stakes record and shows several long works. Not misplaced here, but up against many classier. One of the few front runners. Worth a look at 20/1.
Dot Matrix
Outran his odds with impressive second act in the Red Smith at this distance vs. some of these in November. Maybe that was the time to have him. Decent shot to hit the board but hard to love as fourth choice. Class edge on the
, but half the odds. Still a useful vertical companion to the late runners.
Channel Maker
Super classy character last won the Man o’ War here at the distance last year. Traded place and show with the fave at 1 1/2 after that. More forwardly placed than the late runners may keep it out of trouble. A legit second fave.
Current
Way outran his odds last time vs. a couple of these at 1 1/2. Upside at four years old. Otherwise seems outclassed, with similar but slightly inferior pace profile as the
. Any inspiration from his stablemate? Can Franco outfox the others on this one? Less likely than 12/1 sixth choice.
Standard Deviation
Another with upside. Picked up some recent class, but hasn’t put up the big speed figs. Not a hard toss, but thoroughly unappealing as 4/1 second choice. I’m guessing he’s second ML because he’s the linemaker’s pick and that he'll be higher. Not sure I want him as a 10/1 fourth choice, either. Others more likely.
Highland Sky ✓
Last win on the turf was career best fig here at this distance. Two years ago. Hasn’t run back to that, but last year’s best was third in the Belmont Gold Cup marathon. Serling has him 4th choice. Does this one have a chance to score second off the layoff? At 20/1, I’ll take a punt.
Hayabusa One
Proven at the class and distance—two years ago. Beat by
last out after 700 days away. I prefer the
at 20/1 but worth considering at a big price.
Go Poke the Bear
Looks totally outclassed, but not embarrassed by a couple of these in the Pan American last out. Probably sucked up to that career-best fig, though. One of only three four-year-olds with some upside. Maybe Ortiz works out a trip? Otherwise hard to see a catalyst propelling it past these, and odds look right at the highest on the board. Worth including in big wheels.
Corelli
Now here’s a wildcard. British shipper makes stateside debut after tracking leaders at marathon distances in England. Nice contrast with all these late runners, but is this too short? Will it compromise the other “front” runners? Trainer good off layoff with foreign shippers; shows two bullet works in April and 5f here last week. Can Davis make the right trip? Tough call at 10/1 fourth choice.
Sadler's Joy
The deserving favorite. Couple of flaws in the trainer patterns but clearly the class and speed of the field. Ran career best here at the distance in the 2018 Man o’ War.
I’m going to do something with the
. I suspect
might spoil chances for
and
near the front, but I’ll need a little price incentive to bet it. I may try to fit the
in at a price or even the
if I have lots of room.
Won’t play too hard against the
and
, but I prefer the latter at higher odds.
Petit Fils
Focus group is interesting. Even effort for a new barn in the last, second out with Hernandez named.
