Derby handicapping approach-no race like it.

[Mc990]

I'd agree that most handicappers over analyze the Derby. That being said, IMHO, the Derby is another race like the Super Bowl is another game.

Not every Derby orSuper Bowl will provide value but when it does, it usually provides it in massive amounts.

Example... No way this past year you could have gotten Denver+6 on a neutral field if it were just another regular season game. However with all the unsophisticated money bet on the "Super Bowl", value bettors were able to spot a line that was probably off by 4 pts. Now you obviously won't win all those bets but when operating at such an advantage, you should come out way ahead.

Same principle applies to the Derby. Outside of maybe a Triple Crown being on the line Belmont Day, no other race has more unsophisticated money in it. The handicapping may be the same but the advantage you have should be much larger than any given day at the track. Plunge accordingly

[glengarry]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

It is just another horse race. Why is this ever barely a player's perspective? It's different for the connections. That is not our reality. How often do you win it and how often is it a life changing score? Because these are 3yo's going 10 furlongs and the realities of this race are muddy waters even for any of us who are 20 yr+ handicappers. Looking at and betting thousands of races a year over a big span of time does put this particular race into perspective.It's 1 race. That's it. I'll end with my bold statement since everybody else is making bold statements. If this race is so amplified for you and of this utmost holy importance of hitting=you are f**ked! The rest of the year of your sorry game is going to beat you up and break you down and leave you bruised and butt naked if not broke! If 1 race is of this much importance it can't be any other way. I'm excited about it every year and especially this year because I do think there is big profit potential. But every year perspectives get warped and it becomes bigger than it actually is. As horseplayers I expect we all share the disillusionment equally and don't buy into the hype. The "Life changing score" chorus? It allows the unbridled freedom of stupidity to creep back in for players IMO. And I know because I've been down that road. Experience and Mint Juleps make the Derby day worthy! And occasionally the bet too

You mock the notion of a life changing score. For 99% of the people I see at any racetrack in America, cashing for a grand on a race is a life changing score, considering that it usually is many times their net worth.

There is a guy on another board. Very well respected. Used to play the game year round as a living. Decided to have a family and a more conventional life, so he gave up the game full time. He shows up on the board every year around May to offer derby opinions. When Big Brown won, he took over $200,000 out of the race. He talked about his wagering strategy ahead of time. He was like Babe Ruth calling the famous home run. I notice he doesn't post to discuss a 6 horse field of $5,000 claimers at Mountaineer who haven't won a race since Polk was president. Many of us here have families and dogs and homes and businesses that consume most of our time. The notion that the KD is just another race that deserves the same thought process, and time, as any other race is foolish. The arguments have been logically presented. It doesn't mean that Pace Advantage is wrong. I spent far more time consumed with my KD play that any other play, and have been well rewarded. Would I be well rewarded if I treated every other bet I made with the same respect? Perhaps, perhaps not. All I know is I have limited free time to handicap, and choose to use it on the race that offers the most upside and the pools not controlled by insiders or cheats. That's just my reality. The rest of you can do as you see fit.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by glengarry

You mock the notion of a life changing score. For 99% of the people I see at any racetrack in America, cashing for a grand on a race is a life changing score, considering that it usually is many times their net worth.

There is a guy on another board. Very well respected. Used to play the game year round as a living. Decided to have a family and a more conventional life, so he gave up the game full time. He shows up on the board every year around May to offer derby opinions. When Big Brown won, he took over $200,000 out of the race. He talked about his wagering strategy ahead of time. He was like Babe Ruth calling the famous home run. I notice he doesn't post to discuss a 6 horse field of $5,000 claimers at Mountaineer who haven't won a race since Polk was president. Many of us here have families and dogs and homes and businesses that consume most of our time. The notion that the KD is just another race that deserves the same thought process, and time, as any other race is foolish. The arguments have been logically presented. It doesn't mean that Pace Advantage is wrong. I spent far more time consumed with my KD play that any other play, and have been well rewarded. Would I be well rewarded if I treated every other bet I made with the same respect? Perhaps, perhaps not. All I know is I have limited free time to handicap, and choose to use it on the race that offers the most upside and the pools not controlled by insiders or cheats. That's just my reality. The rest of you can do as you see fit.

I agree....and yet one of the questions in my mind is how to use Nyquist in the exotics? I think the case could be made for singling Nyquist in any of the 4 holes...Or do you swing for the fences and exclude him? This is a fundamental decision this year...I think he will be there...so my structure begins there....logically the first ticket structure would have him on top, then what?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Mc990

I'd agree that most handicappers over analyze the Derby. That being said, IMHO, the Derby is another race like the Super Bowl is another game.

Not every Derby orSuper Bowl will provide value but when it does, it usually provides it in massive amounts.

Example... No way this past year you could have gotten Denver+6 on a neutral field if it were just another regular season game. However with all the unsophisticated money bet on the "Super Bowl", value bettors were able to spot a line that was probably off by 4 pts. Now you obviously won't win all those bets but when operating at such an advantage, you should come out way ahead.

Same principle applies to the Derby. Outside of maybe a Triple Crown being on the line Belmont Day, no other race has more unsophisticated money in it. The handicapping may be the same but the advantage you have should be much larger than any given day at the track. Plunge accordingly

OK so the unsophisticated money theory makes its annual appearance. Please tell me who the unsophisticated players will be betting. How much of the pool is unsophisticated money? Why wouldn't the big sophisticated whales just swoop in and drive the overlays down with large bets?

Most unsophisticated players I know aren't making large bets and if they are they are usually doing so after consulting sophisticated players

[glengarry]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I agree....and yet one of the questions in my mind is how to use Nyquist in the exotics? I think the case could be made for singling Nyquist in any of the 4 holes...Or do you swing for the fences and exclude him? This is a fundamental decision this year...I think he will be there...so my structure begins there....logically the first ticket structure would have him on top, then what?

I always struggle far more on the underneath horses than the winner. Nyquist is not touting himself in the morning as a horse sitting on a huge race. The problem is that may be just him in the mornings. While many get fixated on who is fastest on the numbers, whether using Beyer, or TG or others, I think too many horses are so ill equipped for this race, based on distance, or running style, that expecting a horse to run anywhere near his number becomes a difficult endeavor. Unless his final work indicates there is something amiss, pitching Nyquist doesn't make sense to me.

[Spiderman]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I agree....and yet one of the questions in my mind is how to use Nyquist in the exotics? I think the case could be made for singling Nyquist in any of the 4 holes...Or do you swing for the fences and exclude him? This is a fundamental decision this year...I think he will be there...so my structure begins there....logically the first ticket structure would have him on top, then what?

Depends on your budget for event and strength of opinion for other contender(s). Save your final decision for Derby day.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by glengarry

You mock the notion of a life changing score. For 99% of the people I see at any racetrack in America, cashing for a grand on a race is a life changing score, considering that it usually is many times their net worth.

There is a guy on another board. Very well respected. Used to play the game year round as a living. Decided to have a family and a more conventional life, so he gave up the game full time. He shows up on the board every year around May to offer derby opinions. When Big Brown won, he took over $200,000 out of the race. He talked about his wagering strategy ahead of time. He was like Babe Ruth calling the famous home run. I notice he doesn't post to discuss a 6 horse field of $5,000 claimers at Mountaineer who haven't won a race since Polk was president. Many of us here have families and dogs and homes and businesses that consume most of our time. The notion that the KD is just another race that deserves the same thought process, and time, as any other race is foolish. The arguments have been logically presented. It doesn't mean that Pace Advantage is wrong. I spent far more time consumed with my KD play that any other play, and have been well rewarded. Would I be well rewarded if I treated every other bet I made with the same respect? Perhaps, perhaps not. All I know is I have limited free time to handicap, and choose to use it on the race that offers the most upside and the pools not controlled by insiders or cheats. That's just my reality. The rest of you can do as you see fit.

Agree 100%


I have 2 cousins that cap the smaller tracks & think they're great cappers, but neither has picked a derby winner EVER. Why is this? They say the same shit others are saying in here, that its just another race, & IMO, that's why they can't ever pick the derby winner.

You can not spend just 15 minutes capping the derby & have it all figured out like you can an allowance race at Belmont.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by glengarry

I always struggle far more on the underneath horses than the winner. Nyquist is not touting himself in the morning as a horse sitting on a huge race. The problem is that may be just him in the mornings. While many get fixated on who is fastest on the numbers, whether using Beyer, or TG or others, I think too many horses are so ill equipped for this race, based on distance, or running style, that expecting a horse to run anywhere near his number becomes a difficult endeavor. Unless his final work indicates there is something amiss, pitching Nyquist doesn't make sense to me.

Exactly. So if I am going to use Nyquist it make sense to single him in the spots with other selections and the singling process begin with him on top, then with him second....then if i want to go deeper, I have to make the decision to single him in the 3rd hole OR add more selections in the other holes.

At first thought I think a Nyquist/ Gun Runner AB/AB/,,,,/,,,, is attractive also.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by AndyC

OK so the unsophisticated money theory makes its annual appearance. Please tell me who the unsophisticated players will be betting. How much of the pool is unsophisticated money? Why wouldn't the big sophisticated whales just swoop in and drive the overlays down with large bets?

Most unsophisticated players I know aren't making large bets and if they are they are usually doing so after consulting sophisticated players

Simple- the pools are too big and permutations too many for the pools to be efficient. "Whales" still have limited capital to work with.

To go back to my super bowl analogy, why wouldn't the sharp players have bet more to drive the spread down? There was not a single metric that made Car even close to a 6 pt fav yet the books were able to get close to 50-50 action

Remember Mubtaahij last year, remember the Borel horses in '10 and '11. Why were they allowed to go off as 100 percent+ underlays?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Simple- the pools are too big and permutations too many for the pools to be efficient. "Whales" still have limited capital to work with.

To go back to my super bowl analogy, why wouldn't the sharp players have bet more to drive the spread down? There was not a single metric that made Car even close to a 6 pt fav yet the books were able to get close to 50-50 action

Remember Mubtaahij last year, remember the Borel horses in '10 and '11. Why were they allowed to go off as 100 percent+ underlays?

As far as football goes, everybody thinks there an expert so unsophisticated bettors are willing to wager large sums on the game. Just because your metrics had Denver doesn't mean that every sophisticated bettor shared your opinion or had your same metrics.

By what reference have you determined how big an overlay the Borel horses were in '10 and '11. If you took a poll of the forum which is comprised of mostly experienced and sophisticated players you would find the opinions varied wildly. Why? Because the Derby has far more variables that can have a major effect on the race an not every player views each variable in the same light. The Derby is usually complicated from a pace standpoint, position is important, the ability to handle the surface, the ability to get the distance, etc.

[dnlgfnk]

It seems to me Beyer would make that statement because, in my extensive reading of him, he has never moved from essentially being a selection handicapper, rather than a value handicapper, do to the hierarchical position black and white speed figures occupy in his approach.

The factors that govern the outcome of horse races don't magically change at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, but the built in percentages in the game change significantly in a 20 horse field. Many more scenarios, many more potential overlays.

[AirNate012]

Originally Posted by glengarry

You mock the notion of a life changing score. For 99% of the people I see at any racetrack in America, cashing for a grand on a race is a life changing score, considering that it usually is many times their net worth.

There is a guy on another board. Very well respected. Used to play the game year round as a living. Decided to have a family and a more conventional life, so he gave up the game full time. He shows up on the board every year around May to offer derby opinions. When Big Brown won, he took over $200,000 out of the race. He talked about his wagering strategy ahead of time. He was like Babe Ruth calling the famous home run. I notice he doesn't post to discuss a 6 horse field of $5,000 claimers at Mountaineer who haven't won a race since Polk was president. Many of us here have families and dogs and homes and businesses that consume most of our time. The notion that the KD is just another race that deserves the same thought process, and time, as any other race is foolish. The arguments have been logically presented. It doesn't mean that Pace Advantage is wrong. I spent far more time consumed with my KD play that any other play, and have been well rewarded. Would I be well rewarded if I treated every other bet I made with the same respect? Perhaps, perhaps not. All I know is I have limited free time to handicap, and choose to use it on the race that offers the most upside and the pools not controlled by insiders or cheats. That's just my reality. The rest of you can do as you see fit.

Who are you referring to?

I completely agree. Handicapping the Derby as every other race truly is "foolish" as you said. Think of the reward for hitting the $1.00 tri/super in the Derby vs. your average claimer or allowance race in a given year...enough said.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by AndyC

As far as football goes, everybody thinks there an expert so unsophisticated bettors are willing to wager large sums on the game. Just because your metrics had Denver doesn't mean that every sophisticated bettor shared your opinion or had your same metrics.

By what reference have you determined how big an overlay the Borel horses were in '10 and '11. If you took a poll of the forum which is comprised of mostly experienced and sophisticated players you would find the opinions varied wildly. Why? Because the Derby has far more variables that can have a major effect on the race an not every player views each variable in the same light. The Derby is usually complicated from a pace standpoint, position is important, the ability to handle the surface, the ability to get the distance, etc.

I can agree with some of your points but I want to pose a question...

The handle on last year's derby was 138 mill (1 race). By comparison the handle for all 14 races on fla derby day this year was 32 mill. By any measure, fla derby day is always one of the best cards of the year and it still took 100 mill less than the derby alone.

Where is the additional 100 mill coming from?
- Professionals?
- Whales?
- Celebrities?
- $2 bettors
- Regular players that amp up their normal wagers?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

It seems to me Beyer would make that statement because, in my extensive reading of him, he has never moved from essentially being a selection handicapper, rather than a value handicapper, do to the hierarchical position black and white speed figures occupy in his approach.

The factors that govern the outcome of horse races don't magically change at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, but the built in percentages in the game change significantly in a 20 horse field. Many more scenarios, many more potential overlays.

With all due respect, you have no clue as to how Beyer handicaps. Beyer may be a selection handicapper but that is not because of some black and white vision of his speed figures. It is because most people reading his columns about the big races aren't terribly interested in an esoteric discussion about value, they want to know who is going to win.

I believe that he thinks the Derby is just like any other race to handicap precisely because the factors don't change. It is the analysis of the factors and the many more scenarios (as you point out) that make it difficult. The process remains the same but the job is much bigger.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Mc990

I can agree with some of your points but I want to pose a question...

The handle on last year's derby was 138 mill (1 race). By comparison the handle for all 14 races on fla derby day this year was 32 mill. By any measure, fla derby day is always one of the best cards of the year and it still took 100 mill less than the derby alone.

Where is the additional 100 mill coming from?
- Professionals?
- Whales?
- Celebrities?
- $2 bettors
- Regular players that amp up their normal wagers?

I think the answer is all of the above. But let's assume that the premise of unsophisticated money makes for some great overlays. Just tell where the unsophisticated money is going and why BEFORE the race. I would maintain that the multitude of difficult variables facing even the most sophisticated handicappers makes for wildly differing opinions. The hope is that your opinion is correct and in the minority of opinions.