No real PROOF of PAST POSTING!

[dasch]

I dont like the 3 mtp close, personally I prefer 0 mtp and have a countdown in LARGE FONT so EVERYBODY will know EXACTLY when betting will close. If there is a late scratch NO BIG DEAL, remove all of the horses from the gate, start a new 2 minute clock and then reload at 0. There is always a practical solution if somebody WANTS TO.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

If nobody is past posting, if there is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.....NOTHING going on at the windows after the gates have opened, why would anybody have any objection to closing the windows, say, 3MTP? What advantage is somebody getting between 3MTP and 0MTP? The horses aren't racing, the gates aren't open, it's the same money flow. Those that are getting their bets in at the very last second could do the exact same thing at 3:01MTP. Then the odds would be finalized before the gate closed(edit: OPENED). Then when that 5/1 at 4MTP closes at 5/2 at 3MTP, nobody has any thing to object about. Supposedly, that's exactly what's happening, except at 0MTP and the break rather than 4MTP and 3MTP.

So why the objection? The only explanation is somebody is getting something from 3MTP to 0MTP to the break... and perhaps after the break. If there is nothing going on, and everybody knows the gates(edit: WINDOWS) close at 3MTP, everything that is supposedly happening now could happen exactly as it does, just 3 minutes earlier. There is no objection to closing the windows early that makes sense if everything is on the up and up. NONE.

Edit: Sorry. Kind of a sloppy post.

It could be that by closing early and locking the odds, it will expose the security as weak and vulnerable.

Imagine what would happen if the pools close at 1mn to post and a winning horse is 5-1 on the board but when they make the race official he pays $9.00. It's very possible that there is past posting going on but the tracks do not have the sophistication to catch it. They may be aware but unable to stop it. Just a hypothesis. Thus, it's easier to allow for the late odds changing during the race and have people wonder than remove all doubt by locking the odds a minute to post.

Also, it doesn't mean the horse in question was bet down to 7-2. As I read in previous posts/articles, the track will eliminate money from an outlet they deem came in inappropriately. By doing the right thing and removing that shady money from their pools, they might inadvertently shine light on the fact that money is making into their pools in improper fashion thus eroding any player confidence that might remain.

Finally, this mickey mouse about closing the betting 1 minute early has a negative impact on handle is a red herring. One universal truth is horseplayers will adapt. Tracks know this. Everyone knows this. I believe the real reason has something more to do with what I wrote above than it has to do with worrying about a player who is concerned he can't cancel a bet when a horse acts up. I doubt an organization that would delay the start of a race by up to 15 minutes in order to exhaust every penny, would build trees throughout the infield that blocks 40% of the race, would not update TV's from standard, box sets from 1992, would charge $10 to sit at a table when you're the only person within yelling distance and shrug shoulders to 45% winning trainers would then turn around and be concerned about the wagering experience of a bettor in this instance.

[Track Phantom]

Wouldn't the best way to marry up technology with having a built in advantage be much more advantageous in the hidden pools?

Imagine that someone had access to the trifecta or superfecta will-pays during the betting cycle and could use software to play those under-played by the public? That is where the real value of technology could be exploited.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Wouldn't the best way to marry up technology with having a built in advantage be much more advantageous in the hidden pools?

Imagine that someone had access to the trifecta or superfecta will-pays during the betting cycle and could use software to play those under-played by the public? That is where the real value of technology could be exploited.

a good read, but it took me a while.

[Denny]

Good stuff Track Phantom.

Can tell you've been around this game a while!

[AlsoEligible]

Originally Posted by jay68802

a good read, but it took me a while.

Very interesting read. A ton of it was over my head, especially the mathematics behind the model. But it's pretty clear just how much effort it takes to get one of these teams set up:

The author has conducted a betting operation in Hong Kong following the principles outlined above for the past five years. Approximately five man-years of effort were necessary to organize the database and develop a handicapping model which showed a significant advantage. An additional five man-years were necessary to develop the operation to a high level of profitability. Under near-ideal circumstances, ongoing operations still require the full time effort of several persons. A sample of approximately 2000 races (with complete past performance records for each entrant) was initially used for model development and testing. Improvements to the model were made on a continuing basis, as were regular re-estimations of the model which incorporated the additional data accumulated.

Of course this paper is also 25 years old. So I'm sure what used to take 5 years can now be done in a matter of months (and with even more data available to improve the models), which is why there's so many of these teams popping up left and right now.

[Irishfever]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Wouldn't the best way to marry up technology with having a built in advantage be much more advantageous in the hidden pools?

Imagine that someone had access to the trifecta or superfecta will-pays during the betting cycle and could use software to play those under-played by the public? That is where the real value of technology could be exploited.

http://www.longitude.com/en/capabili...deo/index.html


This technology may soon be available for the regular customer.

[Pensacola Pete]

The early close-betting was tried before, by CDI/TS a few years ago, and there was so much outrage that it was discontinued.

One solution is for the hubs to upgrade the technology and offer the outlets (tracks, simulcast centers, OTBs, ADWs) the opportunity to get into compliance. "Compliance" means that all bets accepted by these outlets will be instantly put into the pools and updated in real-time.

Outlets that comply will be allowed to accept bets until the "Stop" signal is given (e.g. the race begins). Outlets that do not comply will be locked out of bets and changes when the first horse or dog loads or the starter (standardbreds) calls the horses. Bets (by non-compliant outlets) that have not been sent to the hub between the time they're locked out and the time "Stop" is sent will be disallowed (refunded). This will give outlets at least 20-30 seconds (except in very short fields) from the time they're locked out to send their bets. If they can't do it in that time, they probably shouldn't be accepting bets.

The general idea is that the final pools will be available within 10 seconds of the race going off, meaning no further surprises late in the race.

It won't do a lot to stop the whales and syndicates from betting late, but it will stop the past posting nonsense.

What it will do is get the non-compliant outlets to upgrade, because people want to bet/change until the last second and will generally go to the outlets where they can do so.

[lamboguy]

back in the day with FRED CAPPOSELLA-- "IT IS NOW POSTIME". the bell rang and the betting stopped when the second horse went in the gate!

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Denny

Good stuff Track Phantom.

Can tell you've been around this game a while!

Thanks, unfortunately, the years are piling on.

[AlsoEligible]

Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete

The early close-betting was tried before, by CDI/TS a few years ago, and there was so much outrage that it was discontinued.

One solution is for the hubs to upgrade the technology and offer the outlets (tracks, simulcast centers, OTBs, ADWs) the opportunity to get into compliance. "Compliance" means that all bets accepted by these outlets will be instantly put into the pools and updated in real-time.

Outlets that comply will be allowed to accept bets until the "Stop" signal is given (e.g. the race begins). Outlets that do not comply will be locked out of bets and changes when the first horse or dog loads or the starter (standardbreds) calls the horses. Bets (by non-compliant outlets) that have not been sent to the hub between the time they're locked out and the time "Stop" is sent will be disallowed (refunded). This will give outlets at least 20-30 seconds (except in very short fields) from the time they're locked out to send their bets. If they can't do it in that time, they probably shouldn't be accepting bets.

The general idea is that the final pools will be available within 10 seconds of the race going off, meaning no further surprises late in the race.

It won't do a lot to stop the whales and syndicates from betting late, but it will stop the past posting nonsense.

What it will do is get the non-compliant outlets to upgrade, because people want to bet/change until the last second and will generally go to the outlets where they can do so.

Overall I think this is a sensible idea. I don't recall the experiment by CDI/TS to lock early, but what exactly sparked all of the outrage?

Because to me it seems like all of these alternative solutions are overly complex, when the real answer should be simple - betting stops at 0 minutes to post. Period. No worrying about a human locking pools (or not locking them) when the gate opens. No concern about last second money that doesn't get included/updated until the race is halfway over. No perception of past posting when odds are still updating as they turn for home. Even CRW teams wouldn't have to worry about trying to anticipate when to throw in their money.

Clock hits zero, you're done. Everyone's done. And if a track like GSP is dragging their feet, then they can either put more time on the clock before it hits zero, or face the wrath (or boycott) of angry bettors who get locked out 6 minutes before the race actually starts.

I think if this was adopted nationally, the outrage would be minimal. People would adjust to it, and immediately see the benefits from it. Problem is there's no central authority that can force this change...and if only a couple places are doing it, then that would obviously piss people off since they now have to remember different rules for different tracks.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete

The early close-betting was tried before, by CDI/TS a few years ago, and there was so much outrage that it was discontinued.

...allegedly.

And what I mean is that sure, there were some unhappy people at getting shut out. But there were far more people happy with it. The tracks that tried it lost some handle for a short time and couldn't stomach it, so they reverted back.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by cj

...allegedly.

And what I mean is that sure, there were some unhappy people at getting shut out. But there were far more people happy with it. The tracks that tried it lost some handle for a short time and couldn't stomach it, so they reverted back.

What are you thoughts on my post about what I think the real reason could be? In that if they stop betting 1 minute to post, and there was past posting, it would expose the security issue.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

What are you thoughts on my post about what I think the real reason could be? In that if they stop betting 1 minute to post, and there was past posting, it would expose the security issue.

My opinion is that I don't believe tracks think there is rampant past posting, and neither do I for the record. So I don't think they are afraid of it being exposed. I think it was strictly an accounting issue...closing betting was costing them money. It was short term, but short term seems to dominate decision making in this industry.

Now would I be shocked if it turns out someone has found a loophole? No.

[green80]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

What are you thoughts on my post about what I think the real reason could be? In that if they stop betting 1 minute to post, and there was past posting, it would expose the security issue.

You hit the nail on the head. Stopping betting at 1 min to post would show the security issue. If everything was straight, stopping the betting at 1 min to post still would not help the better as he watches the odds change and can do nothing about his bet. That is why nowdays I just play the small tracks where the pools are too little to interest these guys, they just can't bet enough without betting against themselves. Also seems like the pickins a little easier there.

As far as the whales and syndicates betting late, they are right just a little too often for me.