THE INSANITY CURRENTLY GRIPPING THE INDUSTRY HAS TO END NOW!

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

In short, I need proof to believe anyone, and I mean ANYONE, is beating this game legitimately on a daily, weekly or yearly basis. I think all of us can win for periods of time but don't believe anyone has the holy grail algorithm.

It's been described broadly how these guys operate.

Have you attempted anything close? Using methods similar to what has been described they do?

Then how can you possibly come to any sort of conclusion like the above?

I believe 100% they have a version of the holy grail that is working tremendously well for them, given their FIXED ODDS version of pari-mutuel wagering that they are enjoying at the moment.

[AltonKelsey]

I'm glad PaceAdvantage has come down so hard on the past posting paranoia. One down.


But I have a problem with the notion that the whales are somehow blessed with the gift of FIXED ODDS.

Is there only one whale(group)?

If there is some 'overlay' at the 0 mark , wouldn't all or most of the groups detect it? Wouldn't they all pile in and crush the price beyond value . I think so.

The only thing anyone knows is how much THEY are betting, and the average amount that's bet late into the pool. So they can guess what the final price MIGHT BE. No guarantees.

If there's some way for anyone to be the absolute last bet in, with no chance of further betting, then that would be an edge, and a problem for the public.

Anyone think that's the case?

Instead of theorizing, take a sample of 100 or 1000 races, whatever you have time for. Make note of all the late money and the results.

See what the roi is for the bet down horses everyone things are golden , and adjust upward for a nice rebate.

See how much they are making, or maybe not making.

This is all out in the open, the late action can't be hidden so you can do the aforementioned analysis unencumbered.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Not really. Not in my opinion.

Anyone who attributes the "late money" being the "best money" due to past posting is living in a dreamworld.

Is there a chance that you might be wrong about this? Or do you possess some behind-the-curtain information that the rest of us "dreamworld" occupants are not privy to?

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Is there a chance that you might be wrong about this? Or do you possess some behind-the-curtain information that the rest of us "dreamworld" occupants are not privy to?

Unfortunately, debating someone's opinion is a fruitless exercise.

I'm open-minded enough to admit that I could be wrong and there may be MIT teams picking money from our parimutuel pockets. Maybe they have built computer algorithms that exploit inefficiencies in the betting. But due to the relatively small pools (except on big days) and the unknown money that will follow their bet, and consequently turn a viable overlay into a massive underlay, I find it highly unlikely these wizards would be wasting their time in such a rudimentary endeavor.

Again, I could be wrong, but I choose to remain skeptical to these grandiose claims.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Unfortunately, debating someone's opinion is a fruitless exercise.

I'm open-minded enough to admit that I could be wrong and there may be MIT teams picking money from our parimutuel pockets. Maybe they have built computer algorithms that exploit inefficiencies in the betting. But due to the relatively small pools (except on big days) and the unknown money that will follow their bet, and consequently turn a viable overlay into a massive underlay, I find it highly unlikely these wizards would be wasting their time in such a rudimentary endeavor.

Again, I could be wrong, but I choose to remain skeptical to these grandiose claims.

I could be wrong too...and have been many times before. But my opinion remains that past-posting is still taking place...even if this belief relegates me to the "dreamworld", according to some experts here.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I could be wrong too...and have been many times before. But my opinion remains that past-posting is still taking place...even if this belief relegates me to the "dreamworld", according to some experts here.

And there is the problem....those in charge of this area of oversight should be absolutely appalled that you would have that opinion. It matters not if it is happening, at least in this context, but that someone with your experience and years of involvement could have that conclusion. It means they haven't done enough to give you, and many others, the piece of mind that this is not happening. Non-action is more telling to me than anything else.

I'd bet that when the fix-6 scandal occurred those that were immediately suspicious were deemed the "tin-foil hat" crowd. Probably told that proper security measures are in place to prevent anything untoward happening and that "you people" that are skeptical should just stop betting if you don't believe it is a clean game.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

And there is the problem....those in charge of this area of oversight should be absolutely appalled that you would have that opinion. It matters not if it is happening, at least in this context, but that someone with your experience and years of involvement could have that conclusion. It means they haven't done enough to give you, and many others, the piece of mind that this is not happening. Non-action is more telling to me than anything else.

I'd bet that when the fix-6 scandal occurred those that were immediately suspicious were deemed the "tin-foil hat" crowd. Probably told that proper security measures are in place to prevent anything untoward happening and that "you people" that are skeptical should just stop betting if you don't believe it is a clean game.

And, the fix-6 scandal was perpetrated by some guys who were stupid enough to construct their ticket in the only way that would ensure the discovery of their actions. Can you imagine what a bunch of really SMART guys can do...or how long this sort of activity might have been going on, by guys who could cover their tracks?

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

And, the fix-6 scandal was perpetrated by some guys who were stupid enough to construct their ticket in the only way that would ensure the discovery of their actions. Can you imagine what a bunch of really SMART guys can do...or how long this sort of activity might have been going on, by guys who could cover their tracks?

Good point. I don't recall, did racing itself uncover this or were they prompted by an uproar from the masses?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

Good point. I don't recall, did racing itself uncover this or were they prompted by an uproar from the masses?

When the amount wagered on the winning sequence was revealed, it caused the authorities to analyze the winning ticket...and it was subsequently discovered that there were "single" selections submitted for the first 4 races, including a couple of improbable longshots...whereas the last two races of the pick-6 had been wagered "all-all". It didn't exactly require a Sherlock Holmes to figure out that something of a nefarious nature had taken place. If these guys had been smart enough to spend $1,000 instead of $100 on their winning ticket...then they would have been free to carry on this charade to this very day...and beyond.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I could be wrong too...and have been many times before. But my opinion remains that past-posting is still taking place...even if this belief relegates me to the "dreamworld", according to some experts here.

I’m with you. It’s just too damn accurate.....

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

or how long this sort of activity might have been going on, by guys who could cover their tracks?

THAT'S THE POINT!

THEY CAN'T COVER THEIR TRACKS.

YOU THINK IT'S HAPPENING! HOW GOOD ARE THEY COVERING THEIR TRACKS WHEN YOU AND A WHOLE BUNCH OF OTHER PEOPLE THINK IT'S HAPPENING, and THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT IT EVERY SINGLE DAY, FOR ALL TO SEE!!!!

Which is precisely why it CAN'T BE HAPPENING, not on the scale it would take for it to be the actions of one of these CRWs.

Do you all get it now? Finally?

You guys think it's actually happening, AND it's all out in the open for all to see!!!

So it's bank robbery, in broad daylight, and nobody is getting caught.

How likely is that? More likely than someone who actually can win at the races AND is able to bet VAST sums of money during the last 20-30 seconds before the race goes off, locking in a pretty good estimate of the final odds based on huge databases full of historical numbers and analysis of US pari-mutuel pools.

No, it's not that. It's these guys being able to watch the first 10-15 sec of the race (or more), THEN get their money down...and all these tracks it happens at just turn a blind eye to it...or they're all getting paid off...even state regulators and gambling commissions...they're all on the take to keep quiet about this daylight robbery in action at almost every track, every race.

[PaceAdvantage]

For Track Phantom, who doesn't believe people can win at this game long term.

What are your thoughts on the teams and star individuals who went and conquered Hong Kong racing?

And if you think they are bonafide, how are the CRW teams purportedly here in the US much different? Because you seem to believe they would be incapable of being long term winners without some sort of illegality going on somewhere down the line.

Were the guys in Hong Kong not on the up and up?

Hong Kong was/is supposedly a bastion of CLEAN racing. Surely they wouldn't have stood for these computer teams stealing money from their racing public.

So they must have been legit, correct?

And if they are/were legit, this goes against your notion that it's virtually impossible to beat this game long term legitimately.

Unless of course it's somehow legit to do it in Hong Kong, but not legit to do it here, for some reason.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

THAT'S THE POINT!

THEY CAN'T COVER THEIR TRACKS.

YOU THINK IT'S HAPPENING! HOW GOOD ARE THEY COVERING THEIR TRACKS WHEN YOU AND A WHOLE BUNCH OF OTHER PEOPLE THINK IT'S HAPPENING, and THERE IS EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT IT EVERY SINGLE DAY, FOR ALL TO SEE!!!!

Which is precisely why it CAN'T BE HAPPENING, not on the scale it would take for it to be the actions of one of these CRWs.

Do you all get it now? Finally?

You guys think it's actually happening, AND it's all out in the open for all to see!!!

So it's bank robbery, in broad daylight, and nobody is getting caught.

How likely is that? More likely than someone who actually can win at the races AND is able to bet VAST sums of money during the last 20-30 seconds before the race goes off, locking in a pretty good estimate of the final odds based on huge databases full of historical numbers and analysis of US pari-mutuel pools.

No, it's not that. It's these guys being able to watch the first 10-15 sec of the race (or more), THEN get their money down...and all these tracks it happens at just turn a blind eye to it...or they're all getting paid off...even state regulators and gambling commissions...they're all on the take to keep quiet about this daylight robbery in action at almost every track, every race.

I find your argument totally unpersuasive...and my skepticism on this issue remains. I hope this is OK with you.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I find your argument totally unpersuasive...and my skepticism on this issue remains. I hope this is OK with you.

Why wouldn't I be OK with it? It's a free country.

I think it's a very persuasive argument. It's one thing when something hidden is revealed (like the Pick 6 scandal). It's another thing when potential evidence is there every single day for all to see.

[dasch]

I really haven't watched much Hong Kong racing but I definitely admire the effort they take to insure the integrity of their racing product.

Are there drastic odds changes during the races there?