Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-25-2019, 04:48 PM   #1
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Preakness TG Figures

War of Will: 1.5 ( Pairing his Lecomte and Risen Star Stks tops)
Everfast: 1.5 (Big jump up from previous 6.5
Owendale: 0 (Top figure basically pairing his Lexington top)
Warriors Charge : 2.75 (Slight improvement from previous 3.75)

The lower the figure the better. Counts ground loss but not pace like TFUS.
Counting pace puts War of Will up there with Owendale and raises Warriors Charge rating as well.
Counting all important factors gives me a virtual tie for War of Will, Owendale and Warriors Charge for best race run.

Last edited by bobphilo; 05-25-2019 at 04:53 PM.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-25-2019, 04:52 PM   #2
Lemon Drop Husker
Veteran
 
Lemon Drop Husker's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
War of Will: 1.5 ( Pairing his Lecomte and Risen Star Stks tops)
Everfast: 1.5 (Big jump up from previous 6.5
Owendale: 0 (Top figure basically pairing his Lexington top)
Warriors Charge : 2.75 (Slight improvement from previous 3.75)

The lower the figure the better. Counts ground loss but not pace like TFUS.
Counting pace puts War of Will up there with Owendale and raises Warriors Charge rating as well.
Can't see it.


TFUS and Sheets will have better numbers.


Owendale didn't run that much better of a race than anybody else. Warriors Charge ran way better than that number compared to the others.
Lemon Drop Husker is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-25-2019, 05:07 PM   #3
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
War of Will: 1.5 ( Pairing his Lecomte and Risen Star Stks tops)
Everfast: 1.5 (Big jump up from previous 6.5
Owendale: 0 (Top figure basically pairing his Lexington top)
Warriors Charge : 2.75 (Slight improvement from previous 3.75)

The lower the figure the better. Counts ground loss but not pace like TFUS.
Counting pace puts War of Will up there with Owendale and raises Warriors Charge rating as well.
Counting all important factors gives me a virtual tie for War of Will, Owendale and Warriors Charge for best race run.
Here are the TFUS figures:
War of Will: 122
Owendale: 119
Everfast: 118
Warriors Charge: 122

Counting all important factors, virtual tie between WoW, Oe and WC
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-25-2019, 05:12 PM   #4
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
Can't see it.


TFUS and Sheets will have better numbers.


Owendale didn't run that much better of a race than anybody else. Warriors Charge ran way better than that number compared to the others.
I'll go with TFUW and TG, as these 2 combined make the most sense here, though TG are out of my price range.
The Sheets don't even believe the track can change speed during the day unless there's a weather change.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-25-2019, 05:38 PM   #5
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
I'll go with TFUW and TG, as these 2 combined make the most sense here, though TG are out of my price range.
The Sheets don't even believe the track can change speed during the day unless there's a weather change.
The Beyers are also very good. The only problem is they tell you who ran fastest, not necessarily best. For that you have to make adjustments. The thing is that, even with adjusted ratings, you have to take into account what conditions they will face next time as far as pace and ground loss.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-26-2019, 10:31 AM   #6
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
War of Will: 1.5 ( Pairing his Lecomte and Risen Star Stks tops)
Everfast: 1.5 (Big jump up from previous 6.5
Owendale: 0 (Top figure basically pairing his Lexington top)
Warriors Charge : 2.75 (Slight improvement from previous 3.75)

The lower the figure the better. Counts ground loss but not pace like TFUS.
Counting pace puts War of Will up there with Owendale and raises Warriors Charge rating as well.
Counting all important factors gives me a virtual tie for War of Will, Owendale and Warriors Charge for best race run.
I think Win Win Win also got a very good figure out of the race.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-26-2019, 10:39 AM   #7
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think Win Win Win also got a very good figure out of the race.
Yes both Win Win Win and Improbable ran better than it looked with both earning a 1. WWW ran a career top and Improbable ran the 2nd best race of his life. Both ranked higher than the winner's 1.5. Win was 4w6w and Imp was 3w5w. The very wide trips accounted for both their poor placings and figure increases.

Last edited by bobphilo; 05-26-2019 at 10:48 AM.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-26-2019, 11:03 AM   #8
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Yes both Win Win Win and Improbable ran better than it looked with both earning a 1. WWW ran a career top and Improbable ran the 2nd best race of his life. Both ranked higher than the winner's 1.5. Win was 4w6w and Imp was 3w5w. The very wide trips accounted for both their poor placings and figure increases.
On TFUS, which counts pace, Improbable got a 117 and WIN Win Win got a 115.

Last edited by bobphilo; 05-26-2019 at 11:09 AM.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-26-2019, 12:38 PM   #9
aaron
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 1,264
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Yes both Win Win Win and Improbable ran better than it looked with both earning a 1. WWW ran a career top and Improbable ran the 2nd best race of his life. Both ranked higher than the winner's 1.5. Win was 4w6w and Imp was 3w5w. The very wide trips accounted for both their poor placings and figure increases.
I remember the sheet numbers on Alydar and Affirmed. Alydar always got the better sheet number, but could never beat Affirmed. If I remember correctly some sheet user wanted to bet $10,000 that Alydar would beat Affirmed. I think it was the Derby. Straight up bet, didn't matter who won race. Affirmed was just a better horse despite the numbers on a graph. More to horse racing than numbers.
aaron is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-26-2019, 04:19 PM   #10
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaron View Post
I remember the sheet numbers on Alydar and Affirmed. Alydar always got the better sheet number, but could never beat Affirmed. If I remember correctly some sheet user wanted to bet $10,000 that Alydar would beat Affirmed. I think it was the Derby. Straight up bet, didn't matter who won race. Affirmed was just a better horse despite the numbers on a graph. More to horse racing than numbers.
I was there that day and it was one of the best races I ever saw.
Alydar had beaten Affirmed once or twice with better trips. Like I said, sometimes it's just not enough to go with the figure, even if adjusted. You have to figure out how today's race will be run. Affirmed figured to get the rail around both turns giving him a 2 length advantage on Alydar in the Belmont. Affirmed also gave the impression that he would hold off Alydar no matter how hard he came at him.

Last edited by bobphilo; 05-26-2019 at 04:23 PM.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-26-2019, 04:38 PM   #11
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
I remember a funny quote from John Veitch, Alydar's trainer, when asked if it was heartbreaking to Alydar to lose to Affirmed throughout the Triple Crown. He answered, "He hasn't said anything to me about it".

Another time Veitch was commenting on how someone had robbed his wife's jewelry from a cottage he rented at the Saratoga meet. He said, "This is the 2nd time I've been robbed up here. The 1st time was when I rented the cottage" Funny guy Veitch.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-27-2019, 01:33 AM   #12
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Affirmed was a better horse, although it is also true that part of "being a better horse" was he simply had a lot more speed and could get himself better trips.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-27-2019, 10:53 AM   #13
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Affirmed was the better horse. He had more speed, could get better position, and had enough in the tank to hold off virtually anyone coming at him late. T

This is an example of why being overly literal about speed figures, ground loss, weight etc.. can potentially lead you astray. Horse races aren't sprints where everyone is going all out every step of the way and the time is the only thing that matters. In horse racing the time is a function of the ability of the horses "plus" the race development. At the end, you can't even be sure how much each participant had left in the tank. Shift a few pounds or change a path here or there and you might get the same result over and over.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-28-2019, 03:21 PM   #14
Roaring Good Time
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
Affirmed was a better horse, although it is also true that part of "being a better horse" was he simply had a lot more speed and could get himself better trips.


Part of being a "better horse" was being gassed out of his mind by the Barrera brothers. Alydar was the superior animal and it showed in the breeding shed. It's criminal that he didn't win the Triple Crown.

If you really pay attention to these things, watch the 1979 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Spectacular Bid who belongs in the conversation with Secretariat tried his eyeballs out against that science project. Just ridiculous.

I don't cheer phony horses. I do like Steve Cauthen though.
Roaring Good Time is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-29-2019, 10:40 AM   #15
aaron
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 1,264
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roaring Good Time View Post
Part of being a "better horse" was being gassed out of his mind by the Barrera brothers. Alydar was the superior animal and it showed in the breeding shed. It's criminal that he didn't win the Triple Crown.

If you really pay attention to these things, watch the 1979 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Spectacular Bid who belongs in the conversation with Secretariat tried his eyeballs out against that science project. Just ridiculous.

I don't cheer phony horses. I do like Steve Cauthen though.
Well,this is something I never heard. Affirmed being juiced up.Just because a horse is better at breeding, does not mean he was better on the track. If that was the case,Secretarit would've been the best producer of all time.
aaron is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:46 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.