Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
HSH master handicapper and programmer Dave Schwartz has come up with a new wrinkle that, in limiting testing, is knocking it out of the park at the tracks where I have used it.
One thing about HSH: IT NEVER RESTS ON FORMER LAURELS and continues to evolve...BRAVO!!
|
I appreciate the compliment. Thank you, Tim.
(Brace yourself, 46, because you will shortly be accused of being my "shill" by somebody. I would never do that, of course.)
Since I have gotten a couple of emails and messages about this today, I will share a little.
I was working on a concept. Pretty cool stuff, actually. I placed it on a button called, "Magic." It was the beginning of the concept and since then I've moved past it.
Frankly, I had no intention of releasing it to the public because it was not fully fleshed out.
I really thought I had hidden the button from everyone but me, but apparently I had not. So, when I released an upgrade several months later, a couple of guys began to use it.
They've got no explanation, and no real understanding of what it does. It was just the beginning of what I recently released in an HSH seminar entitled,
HSH Tiers Handicapping.
It is, by far, the most powerful tool I have ever developed.
The basic principle begins with 3 "Tiers."
1st Tier Low odds horses
2nd Tier Medium odds horses
3rd Tier High odds horses.
I should point out that these are not actual tote board odds. Instead, they are projected odds.
So, the approach is all about knowing how each tier should be handicapped. Well, the
handicapping is actually the same for all tiers. But, depending upon the situation and the tier, you may want to play the BEST BET or you may want to play the WORST BET!
I know that sounds crazy, but it seems to be working.
As an example, across all the first tier horses that figure to be very low odds (6/5 or less)... they can be broken into two groups:
BET
These horses are currently making about 12% per wagered dollar. (before rebate).
BET AGAINST
These horses are currently returning a loss of around 45% per wagered dollar. (before rebate)
Notes:
1. There are far more projected low odds horses than actual low odds horses.
2. Many of the low odds horses do not go off at low odds. Many of the BET group will actually pay $6 to $9, and I have seen a few pay low double-digits. (Saw one pay $22.)
It is rare to see a NOT BET pay over $5.00.
I am trying to build a non-HSH version of this but thus far have not been successful because the workload is just too much for a guy with paper and pencil. Spreadsheet helps, but the issue is that there are just too many factors to look at.
I welcome questions. Understand that I have nothing to sell you at this time but perhaps I will in a month or two.
Dave
@
