Workouts

[ddog]

Originally Posted by andymays

Some clockers do that and some don't. Bruno doesn't grade them.

So he has no idea or prefers to keep them close?
Does he even SEE them?

[ddog]

Originally Posted by andymays

Some clockers do that and some don't. Bruno doesn't grade them.

And if they grade them do they publish those results?

[andymays]

Originally Posted by ddog

So he has no idea or prefers to keep them close?
Does he even SEE them?

Again, I don't know what you mean.

The workouts I posted earlier in the thread are from him. In my opinion he is the best.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by ddog

And if they grade them do they publish those results?

What results?

The workouts are listed by Bruno on his website or at todays racing digest.

I posted examples earlier in the thread.

[Tom]

Looks like these work outs had the "dogs" up.

[Trotman]

How many times has a trainer sat trackside overseeing a workout either early or late when it's not too busy and the horse has a monster work. The clocker gets the name from the trainer and yet the horse that worked was another trainers horse, oh sure the horse is in the trainers saddle cloth and bridle and the exercise rider works for the trainer so he decides to keep this one in his pocket and maybe offer it up to a service for a few bucks. The only prople who really know is the two trainers and the exercise rider and they are betting that familiarity in what this trainers horses wear in workouts will totally screwup the clocker and from what I've heard 95% of the time it does. Maybe just ask Bruno.

[cnollfan]

I use workouts a lot in my handicapping, but not in the sense of which horse has the fastest work. They add to the picture of where a horse is coming from.

First starters: Like to see steady workouts, no gaps (maybe one gap is OK for all of the missed/misidentified workouts alluded to earlier in this thread, plus a travel gap is OK), one from the gate but not too many more, distances increasing. A relatively fast one early is nice. Not that concerned about times if they can get in the top half of the horses who worked that day.

Established stakes horses: Love to look at the first workout back after a tough race (Joe Colville angle). The sooner and faster that workout is after the race, the better.

Some trainers work all of their horses so fast that I pay no attention to their workouts, e.g. Baffert.

If a horse was a vet scratch, I like to see a workout soon after the scratch. Similarly, a horse that did not finish a race and was vanned off but who works out a week later and continues a steady pattern until his next race, without dropping much in class if at all, is a great bet.

Blinkers on plus a gate workout equals trying to win. I didn't have her so it's not redboarding, but Josiah's Girl at boxcars in the 7th at Evangeline last night is an example.

[Fastracehorse]

Originally Posted by ddog

All the pay for work ratings and their performance. I picked two winners once after my dog took a dump on the program, but I don't recommend it.

If you KNOW a horse has the goods in that size pool you would be nuts to throw it out there,imo. You could just scoop up the sucker money for a year or two and be done with it?

...........in identifying sharp charges via works. There are methods to uncover live firsters.

Works are a big part of the game - and the ABSENCE of works can be a tip off as well; trainers try and hide ability but give it away accidentally. The pattern is a tip off; the type of work is a sign - analyzing a series of works is extremely useful to the experienced player.

fffastt

[gm10]

Originally Posted by Trotman

Can any of you honestly say you bet a first time starter that won by the workouts alone, and if so what did you see in the workout that nobody else saw.

Yes. I have a small piece of code that finds workouts that were in company with other horses. If a 2yo newcomer has been working in company of an older stakes winner for, say, Pletcher or Motion, then that is probably a talented 2yo.

I also 'rate' workout times as I do for final times. Of course they are not nearly as predictive, but they still tell you quite a few things, especially when the workout is over 5F or longer.

As others here have posted, a 'gap' can be quite telling. If it's for one of the bigger trainers, the horse could have been training at a private track that week.

[JohnGalt1]

I look at 3 things for FTS.

1) Is it bred to win early?

2) Does the trainer win at a high % with FTS'ers and 2 or 3 year olds?

3) Are the work outs spaced out and are they fast? A 59 at a good track or a 1:01 at Podunk Downs means the 150 lb. exersize rider wasn't on board.

An additional work out I look at is the first. Most trainers don't expect much from a horse running full out the first time on a track. So even if following work outs are slower and longer, the horse showed something.

Say the pattern in 36.1 37.4 49.3 1:03.3.

This WO pattern isn't a stand alone factor, but if 1 and 2 above are positive, then I consider it.

[carlonr]

If you use brisnet PP's, here's something you may want to take a look at.for FTS Dam stats of 1 stk winner/ 4 starters - combined with good workouts. I have made some significant scores using this. (if the sire stat are low, its even better) For instance, at least 1 of the last three workouts under 12 sec/ furlong eg 4F in :47 2/5 and Dam stats of 8 starters with 3 winners and 2 stks winners.

[Fastracehorse]

..............but these pop up once-in-a-while.

2 yo c. works 1 f in 9.8 secs at Fpx

that is eye popping is it not?

for a 2 year old?

OK, if you don't bite at the time; which IMO it is good to be skeptical about raw times; this 2 yo colt was first of 85 horses to work at the distant that day.

Somebody asked me why the horse worked 1 f. I said probably to show off for a sale; and sure enough he was bought for 200k; trains for Baffert and only going 5 f.

This was/is an extreme example of a horse I could play on works - need to say I didn't get the p-4 anyways or the tri; and I didn't bet it to win; but the point is: this is one way to use works in handicapping.

fffastt

[nijinski]

I like multiple bullet breezes . bg also.

[skate]

Originally Posted by Trotman

Can any of you honestly say you bet a first time starter that won by the workouts alone, and if so what did you see in the workout that nobody else saw.

Funny you say that, i see this often, yesterday at HP in the last race, first and second finishers (even the third and fourth finishers) would come from WO, especially the elimination of the Favorite.

Only works at certain tracks, due to quality.

[nijinski]

I never like it when a trainer says the horse went a little faster in the work than he/she would have wanted.