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06-27-2010, 08:25 AM
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#1
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 791
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Workouts
Can any of you honestly say you bet a first time starter that won by the workouts alone, and if so what did you see in the workout that nobody else saw.
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06-27-2010, 09:01 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: donkeys ride from ASD
Posts: 13,002
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Yes,I needed a longshot for the last race of a contest,I took a firster with sharp works.She won,catapulting me into 2nd spot.(Santa Anita/2000)
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06-27-2010, 09:20 AM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,399
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I rate the pattern of workouts in how many days, etc. If a fast work is in there so much the better but not required. Besides every player can notice a fast workout. Very few acknowledge the actual pattern.
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06-27-2010, 10:26 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: 1 hr away from Belmont
Posts: 890
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I try not to play them anymore but I look for workouts from a gate. They just don't win enough.
__________________
This is not gambling. This is just taking advantage of an extraordinary business opportunity. Jay Trotter
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06-27-2010, 10:36 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,438
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gate works are important. a horse that has a gate work breezing in 12 second furlongs or faster, and good workout times on a regular once a week schedule is a good bet anytime. especially if that race is 6 furs or shorter. a maiden that breaks from the gate smoothly, and has some speed is tough to beat. that alone puts them a few lengths on the lead out of the gate.
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06-27-2010, 10:40 AM
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#6
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Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 9,908
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Here's two examples of firsters with good workout comments. The workouts can be found at www.racingwithbruno.com or www.todaysracingdigest.com
3rd Hollywood 6-26
Quiet Assault 06/17 HOL/FT 5F 100.0hG
Worked from the gate and with Real Heart and Indian Winter. Went in
24, 35.2, 47.4 and finished in 100.1. Went well. Looked good.
7th at Hollywood 6-26
Capital Account 06/20 HOL/FT 4F 47.0hG
Worked from the gate with Seriously, a winner, and went well in 12.2, 23.4,
35 flat and 46.4. Finished well and went OK.
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06-27-2010, 10:52 AM
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#7
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,301
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BOTTOM line IF you did not SEE IT, you have NO IDEA what went on in a work out and why.
Dr. William Quirin (Handicapping by Example, p, 260) ...More often than not, however, workouts provide relatively insignificant information and can at times be misleading. Indeed, the public remains IGNORANT of so much information on each workout- what the trainer hopes the horse will gain from the workout, for example- that the true significance of a workout is often beyond its comprehension.
What path did they work?, did they go all out or speed up late?, what did the exercise rider/trainer on its back weigh?, did they work in company or with a significant equipment change??? and last but certainly not least, THERE ARE NO DRUG TESTS after workouts.....
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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06-27-2010, 11:09 AM
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#8
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 791
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46 you hit it on the head. A friend of mine "a clocker" is hanging it up after 40 years and what advice he has given me over the years is much what you say "If you don't see it then don't bet it". His first 10-12 years was with the Form then he went private. I can tell you that leave the public in rags was an inside joke of all clockers.
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06-27-2010, 11:51 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Location: philadelphia
Posts: 928
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Years ago, I was discussing workouts with a thoroughbred trainer and their significance. He laughed and told me to look at the workouts for the following Thursday. Said nothing else. At the time, I owned a trotter by the name of Uncle Roscoe, who was racing at the local harness track.
On the following Friday, I checked the Racing Form for the workouts at the thoroughbred track where he raced. Sure enough. Uncle Roscoe worked 3f in :37.3 handily.
Next time I saw him, I said that Uncle Roscoe was a little faster than I had thought. He laughed and said the clockers don't check lip tattoos. They just ask the name of the horse and how far you are working.
Granted, this was a "B" track. But I'm wondering if some of this might still go on. That is, how do we know the firster is actually the horse who posted the work? I remember in the old days, the tout sheets would sometimes put a firster on top as a selection with the following comment: "Prepped in the dark."
At any rate, I don't play races with first-starters as a rule, but when I did, I always looked at the tote board as an indication of intent. But nowadays with easy cancellation policies by many ADW's and giant late money action, I'm not sure how you can even rely on the tote action anymore.
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06-27-2010, 05:56 PM
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#10
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 791
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MG I hear you loud and clear and some may find it funny but I know it's true. The clocker's hand off their work to a tabber eg: Lukas 12.1 - 24.3 - 36.4 out in 1:00.1 HG and the tabber writes on the sheet H which gets bold black type in the Form. A 1:00.1 breaks down to 5 x 12 per furlong but the G missing from the work is huge and the boys on the gate know it and is entered on the gate sheet.
A first timer that busts away from the gate in 12.1 has the trainer and owner busting with glee knowing their first start is 5 furlongs.
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06-27-2010, 07:01 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 2,443
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Having said all that 46......
Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
BOTTOM line IF you did not SEE IT, you have NO IDEA what went on in a work out and why.
Dr. William Quirin (Handicapping by Example, p, 260) ...More often than not, however, workouts provide relatively insignificant information and can at times be misleading. Indeed, the public remains IGNORANT of so much information on each workout- what the trainer hopes the horse will gain from the workout, for example- that the true significance of a workout is often beyond its comprehension.
What path did they work?, did they go all out or speed up late?, what did the exercise rider/trainer on its back weigh?, did they work in company or with a significant equipment change??? and last but certainly not least, THERE ARE NO DRUG TESTS after workouts.....
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.....................I diagree with U. There are definitely angles you can use to pick winners via workouts. I do it often enough that I need the form.
fffastt
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06-27-2010, 07:14 PM
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#12
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,888
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Perhaps the most prolific secondary factor in HTR is the WO rating.
It jut enhances so many other factors when combined with them.
Like garlic to cooking.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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06-27-2010, 08:25 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 4,156
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Yep, the workouts(published) normally don't tell half the story.
If the game was serious you would provide AT LEAST two things....
The trainers exercise tab and a verified listing of timed works and where not timed at least a note that the horse was on track and what he did.
The info for both of the "things" would come from the BARN and be sworn under oath.
Video of all morning activity would be an internet feed for anyone to pick up.
Each track would be the provider to the public of the info and could charge for it to offset their costs.
Video would be reviewed and where found false a 1 year suspension of ALL the horses under that trainer/owner would be automatic.
Last edited by ddog; 06-27-2010 at 08:27 PM.
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06-27-2010, 08:32 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 4,156
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andymays
Here's two examples of firsters with good workout comments. The workouts can be found at www.racingwithbruno.com or www.todaysracingdigest.com
3rd Hollywood 6-26
Quiet Assault 06/17 HOL/FT 5F 100.0hG
Worked from the gate and with Real Heart and Indian Winter. Went in
24, 35.2, 47.4 and finished in 100.1. Went well. Looked good.
7th at Hollywood 6-26
Capital Account 06/20 HOL/FT 4F 47.0hG
Worked from the gate with Seriously, a winner, and went well in 12.2, 23.4,
35 flat and 46.4. Finished well and went OK.
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and the good workers that never win or run to them, that list pls.
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06-27-2010, 08:33 PM
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#15
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 791
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When you're on the backside and see the hotwalker bullied and pulled around by the horse after a workout,nostrals flaring, bulging eyes you know the workout meant something. Forget what the Form printed.
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